Nick Willis Crushes Field in 5k at NZ Champs - Says He Can Run 13:10 and Might Run 5k at Olympics - Can He Medal?

Today Nick Willis crushed the field by 11 seconds - a field that included Will Leer who ran 13:36 earlier this year - at the NZ champs.Afterwards, Willis said he thought he could break 13:10 in the 5000 as he told the NZ Herald (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=10794267) the following:

Nick Willis said:

If I could run 13:27 sevens years ago, and that was on a hot day without pacemakers, it shouldn't be a problem [to qualify] but we will have to wait and see.

I know I should be able to run under 13:10 for the 5k given good healthy training. It's just a matter of being able to do that. It's much easier said than done.

I started to think about it. Since the 5k is after the 1,500, he might as well do it at the Olympics.

And that got me to thinking, is there any chance his speed gets him a medal in the Olympic 5k? Could his odds be better there than in the 5000?

So here are three questions.

What do you think the odds of the following are:

1) He actually breaks 13:10 in the 5k this year?

2) He medals in the 5k at the Olympics in 2012?

3) He medals in the 1,500 at the Olympic in 2012?

More Here:

So last year 28 people broke 13:10 at 5,000m.

But only 10 from outside of Kenya and Ethiopia who can only enter 3 a piece.

So that's 16 people at the Games under 13:10.

Then you look at last year's WC's and realize, "whoa"- no Kenyans even got a medal at the 5,000.

And then you realize that Bekele didn't even run the 5,000.

But you look at 1500m guys that were succesful moving up and medalling at 5,000 like Nyongabo, El G and Lagat and you may think there is a chance.

With Farah, Lagat, Merga, Bekele and 3 Kenyans it will be hard to crack into the top 3 without some very good fitness.

His 1500 PR of 3:31.79 (from 2011) probably converts to a bit under 13:10, so I think he is capable of it. His PR at 3000 is only 7:45.07 outdoors and 7:44.97 indoors but those are from 2005, so probably not very relevant (although they convert to about what he just ran).

So, pulling numbers out of the air, I say

1) 50%

2) 1%

3) 5%

He's a great guy so I hope he beats the odds.

he only ran 13:54 i wonder why he didnt run under 13:27 (B standard) or better yet under 13:20 (A standard)? might as well get the qualifying mark out of the way right?

Butter Flies wrote:(although they convert to about what he just ran).

Should have said they convert roughly to his current 5k PR.

with his 3:31 speed he can go sub 13. He will crush Rupp, Solinsky, Mo, and possibly beat Lagat and KB.

Is this a joke? Willis will need FAR better than 13:10 ability to get a medal. It's not like his 1500 is that much better (if at all) than the top 5k guys. He ran a 3:31 PR last year. Lagat ran 3:32 in 2010 and will probably be in close to 12:50 shape at the Olympics. Farah outgunned Lagat at the WCs last year. There are two guys head and shoulders above Willis right there. Choge has a 3:29 PR and ran 3:31 last year ro go along with a 12:5X PR. In 2004, Guerrouj was only BARELY able to beat Bekele in a 13:1X race that if I remember correctly went out in like 75 for the first lap.

So no, Willis does not have any shot whatsoever at medaling at 5k.

douglas burke wrote:

he only ran 13:54 i wonder why he didnt run under 13:27 (B standard) or better yet under 13:20 (A standard)? might as well get the qualifying mark out of the way right?

You do know he's white yep?

Butter Flies wrote:

His 1500 PR of 3:31.79 (from 2011) probably converts to a bit under 13:10, so I think he is capable of it. His PR at 3000 is only 7:45.07 outdoors and 7:44.97 indoors but those are from 2005, so probably not very relevant (although they convert to about what he just ran).

So, pulling numbers out of the air, I say

1) 50%

2) 1%

3) 5%

He's a great guy so I hope he beats the odds.

He won silver in 2008, you're only giving him a 5% chance at a metal in the same event in 2012?

I guess I haven't been keeping track of his results or fitness lately, but that seems kind of low for someone who has already been there.

trollism wrote:

douglas burke wrote:

he only ran 13:54 i wonder why he didnt run under 13:27 (B standard) or better yet under 13:20 (A standard)? might as well get the qualifying mark out of the way right?

You do know he's white yep?

and i also know he is a 3:31 for 1500 runner, going under 13:20 should not be a problem for ANY 3:31 1500 meter runner.

douglas burke wrote:

he only ran 13:54

ewafdsf wrote:

He won silver in 2008, you're only giving him a 5% chance at a metal in the same event in 2012?

I guess I haven't been keeping track of his results or fitness lately, but that seems kind of low for someone who has already been there.

In Olympic history only 4 people have earned a medal in two successive games in the 1500m.

Kip Keino

Seb Coe

El G

Lagat

If Willis medals again he will be elevating himself to this level.

douglas burke wrote:

he only ran 13:54 i wonder why he didnt run under 13:27 (B standard) or better yet under 13:20 (A standard)? might as well get the qualifying mark out of the way right?

The article linked on the front page said he is in high mileage training block, so most probably not race sharp.

I think he can run 13:10, but more a question of if he can fit it in this year. Main priority is the A standard and being ready for the 1500m.

categorically wrote:

ewafdsf wrote:

He won silver in 2008, you're only giving him a 5% chance at a metal in the same event in 2012?

I guess I haven't been keeping track of his results or fitness lately, but that seems kind of low for someone who has already been there.

In Olympic history only 4 people have earned a medal in two successive games in the 1500m.

Kip Keino

Seb Coe

El G

Lagat

If Willis medals again he will be elevating himself to this level.

without checking I know Fermin Cacho belongs to that list

pal hal wrote:

without checking I know Fermin Cacho belongs to that list

Cacho I missed, thanks! He belongs, too. That brings the total to 5.

He's a miler

captain and me wrote:I always felt that Kevin Sullivan could have run under 13.10 (PR 13.19) if he had ever given a damn about the event. If Sully could do it, then so should Willis be capable.

I agree that Sully would likely have had 13:10 ability had he given it a serious shot. That doesn't necessarily mean Willis should be able to do the same. Bear in mind that Sully was fourth at NCAA XC as a freshman, and finished as high as (I think) second. Willis never showed quite as much natural strength.

That being said, I wouldn't be too surprised if Willis did put up a 13:10. To do well at the Olympics, though, he'd need the race to play out exactly in his favor: not too fast, and then most of the main contenders going hard for the win over the last couple of laps, with several of them blowing up badly in the final 200m allowing Willis to sneak through for a smart but well-beaten bronze.

1) He actually breaks 13:10 in the 5k this year?

If he tries to do this, in a fast race, I would give him a 90-95% chance. Milers have done this well for a long time. Wessinhage went 13:12 (3:31). Centrowitz went 13:12. Webb went 13:10 (3:31). Dick Quax went 13:12 (3:38). Nyambui went 13:12 (3:35). Jack Buckner ran 13:10 (3:35/3:51y). Pierre Deleze ran 13:15 (3:31). Marty Liquori ran 13:15 (3:36.00/3:52.2y). Markus Ryffel ran 13:07 (3:38- not primarily a miler). Aouita ran 13:04-5 consistently when he was a 3:31 type runner, and eventually ran 12:58 (3:29).

This was back in a time when people ran both events to the best of their ability and ran them frequently.

2) He medals in the 5k at the Olympics in 2012?

I would say it is very low, because of his inexperience at the distance. He has not run extremely fast at 3k/5k yet and he has had ample opportunity. The championship races are run very slowly now... usually 25-50 seconds off the WR, but there are so many good guys that I think he would be crushed in a fast race (like the milers in the LA Olympics -- surprised by the fast pace) and I think he would be crsuhed in a slow-paced race with a final 1600 in 3:54-3:57.

I would give him a 3-5% chance.

3) He medals in the 1,500 at the Olympic in 2012?

I am not sure why so few people are running under 3:48y and 3:30m ... tougher controls? or out-of-comp testing?

I think he has a 10-15% chance, there will be new guys since 2008 that will make it very tough.

I wish I was wrong, I am from Michigan and he has always seemed like an alright dude. This will probably be his best shot at the Olympics as he will be 33 the next time round, which might be too old for the 1500.

You guys realize leer did the 800m heats 30 mins before this 5k right?