Readthearticle wrote:
Does Bumbalough have the talent to run that fast?
And who knows how well Solinsky will recover, is he even running yet?
In other words it's much too early to be saying what Olympic event will be easiest to make this year.
In answer to the question, I think he does. I don't think he will this year, but I think he might the next year. In fact, I think he has just as much talent as Rupp, Ritz, Solinsky, and Tegenkamp, but the guy didn't train like a machine at the early ages they did. He was very low mileage in high school and still ran an 8:49 early junior year (didn't race in the national meets or his senior year due to mono), winning at Arcadia. He came out the gates with an 8:01indoor 3000 as a true freshman, then struggled with injuries. His mileage was hardly more than half what the Wisco, Colorado, and Oregon guys were running and he still progressed each year down to 8th in cross, 13:30 5000, and 3:38 1500. And that's why he got signed by Nike and went to Schumaker. Sure, there are runners that had faster times and better pedigrees, but Bumbalough has crazy upside, and that's why he's improving so rapidly. 3:37 and 13:16 last year, neck and neck with Teg all year. This year, so far, he's been ahead of Teg in the 5000 road race and in a ridiculously easy essentially solo 3:58 mile off of a 63 first lap. So yes, I think he has the talent to run sub 13 in the 5000. If that's what it takes to make the Olympic team this year, though, I don't think he'll make it. But I think analysis of his career, when factoring in his significantly lower mileage, indicate that he is just as talented as, say, Teg, who has run a 12:58.
In regard to your second question, I've heard that he is running and is undecided about his event, but is not ready to race. That's all I know.
And finally, you're right, it's much too early to be saying much about anything, but if people only talked about sports when it made sense, ESPN would be a shadow of itself, and Letsrun would be even more dominated by irrelevant threads created by lonely 17-year-old masturbation addicts.