What will humanity's final mile WR be?

graphing the progression of the world record in the mile / 1500 meters against the domain of time shows a linear-ish relationship. I suppose someone who is really good at math could figure out some kind of curve formula to fit the data and figure out a rough limit it approaches.

bangalangadanga wrote:

graphing the progression of the world record in the mile / 1500 meters against the domain of time shows a linear-ish relationship.

a non-sustainable relationship.

If i wanted to put a time on it, my uneducated unscientific guess would be 3:15

bangalangadanga wrote:

graphing the progression of the world record in the mile / 1500 meters against the domain of time shows a linear-ish relationship. I suppose someone who is really good at math could figure out some kind of curve formula to fit the data and figure out a rough limit it approaches.

Or you could just plug the numbers into excel and have it generate a curve and equation for you. Also, do you really think it's a linear relationship? so in x number of years, the WR will be 1 second? Please.

I believe a paper was actually published on this several years ago predicting the limit of human abilities for every T&F WR. Most weren't that much better than our current WRs, which isn't surprising considering how long some have stood or how little some have changed in so long.

Well, if we somehow found the right person who was some sort of crazy genetic outlier that could do something like 43.5 400m but have great endurance then maybe something around 3:11/3:26, 11:55, 24:45 would be possible.

Not sure such a combination could even exist but based on what we have seen so far with top speed and top endurance levels I can't see faster than this being even hypothetically possible.

It took a guy like Bolt for us to realize that an ideal sprinter is 6'5". I think the future of the mile will be guys built more like Kiprop and Rudisha, super long.

Anyway, the next generation of chemical and technological advances will drive the times down considerably.

They will retroactively figure out the doping schema and the clean record will be 3:46.

Lenny Leonard wrote:

It took a guy like Bolt for us to realize that an ideal sprinter is 6'5". I think the future of the mile will be guys built more like Kiprop and Rudisha, super long.

Anyway, the next generation of chemical and technological advances will drive the times down considerably.

How did one 6'5" make us realize that 6'5" is the ideal height? What does length have to do with it? Seems like shorter guys have the advantage in most of the events

3:43, because the world will refuse to "Bring Back the Mile".

Considering the world is meant to end this year I would say 3.43. Can't see anyone breaking the record before December 12th.

Just sayin dude wrote:

Lenny Leonard wrote:

It took a guy like Bolt for us to realize that an ideal sprinter is 6'5". I think the future of the mile will be guys built more like Kiprop and Rudisha, super long.

Anyway, the next generation of chemical and technological advances will drive the times down considerably.

How did one 6'5" make us realize that 6'5" is the ideal height? What does length have to do with it? Seems like shorter guys have the advantage in most of the events

Seriously, one doped up Jamaican does not a rule make.

Guppy wrote:

bangalangadanga wrote:

graphing the progression of the world record in the mile / 1500 meters against the domain of time shows a linear-ish relationship. I suppose someone who is really good at math could figure out some kind of curve formula to fit the data and figure out a rough limit it approaches.

Or you could just plug the numbers into excel and have it generate a curve and equation for you. Also, do you really think it's a linear relationship? so in x number of years, the WR will be 1 second? Please.

Of course not. I would like to calculate the limit as time goes to infinity (a really big number) based on the appropriate formula representative of the current data. The instantaneous relationship is in fact linear. Has been for the last 50 years. This goes for the marathon too.

What were the results of the study you mentioned?

Link?

Pics?

One cannot put a limit to such a record. Evolution and its micro-processes are omnipresent and always occurring.

LM wrote:

Well, if we somehow found the right person who was some sort of crazy genetic outlier that could do something like 43.5 400m but have great endurance then maybe something around 3:11/3:26, 11:55, 24:45 would be possible.

Not sure such a combination could even exist but based on what we have seen so far with top speed and top endurance levels I can't see faster than this being even hypothetically possible.

These graphs, (several in fact) exist in Noakes' TLOR. Your projections are very good, and pretty much in line with a few of them. The ones that go all the way up to the marathon put it just short of 2 hours.

Darwin wrote:

One cannot put a limit to such a record. Evolution and its micro-processes are omnipresent and always occurring.

Yeah, except there isn't any more selective pressure to run fast.

I'm going to make up the figure 3:25 if doping doesn't get too much more sophsiticated

Humankind will be interfaced with machines approximately 75-100 years from now. I assume records will be meaningless after this point, so I'll say we get another 2 seconds and drop it to 3:41 in 75-100 years.

human years???? or.....

Raptured wrote:

Humankind will be interfaced with machines approximately 75-100 years from now. I assume records will be meaningless after this point, so I'll say we get another 2 seconds and drop it to 3:41 in 75-100 years.

ijk wrote:

Yeah, except there isn't any more selective pressure to run fast.

Well, maybe. There are lots of runner couples. All the slowest people aren't dieing off but some of the fastest are reproducing with each other. It's not pressuring the whole population but it may push the outliers.