I can help you Mr. Dasler.
This is the Olympic Trials.
Nick has a pr of 3:25 seconds faster than Mike.
Nick has run about 8 seconds per mile for 26 miles faster than Mike.
Nick has broken 2:12 twice and his pr of 2:11:30 was set just a year ago to date from the trials on Saturday, on the same course.
Mike has broken 2:15, once.
Mike reminds me of Clint Verran (never mind place, I am talking about time)
Since his debut marathon in 2006 (2:15:11), Mike has run only 16 seconds faster for the distance in those 5 years with a best of 2:14:55. Not even 1 second per mile faster over 1/2 a decade of training.
Why would Mike suddenly run 2:11 now? What has changed "that" much?
I personally don't care about silly summer hot world championship races where nobody runs up to par and many drop out.
Based off my above facts, any smart oddsmaker would agree with me. If Mike had a pr of 2:11 plus, it would be a whole different ball game, but he doesn't after several tries of running the same 2:15ish marathon. Odds are, Nick will finish in front of Mike on Saturday.