Talk about a wild card. Great track credentials. Toughness of a Steeplechaser. Some great road results recently. Seems to be very healthy and adapting well to longer training.
I don't know if he'll make the team, but I'm saying he will be in the 2:10 - 2:11 range his first time out. That is a big order, but based off his last races; Falmouth, Manchester, and overall Track credentials. I think it's possible.
Thoughts??
2:16 or DNF. why would he run faster than bobby curtis who had a great half going in and was 40 secs faster over 5k.
2:16 or DNF. why would he run faster than bobby curtis who had a great half going in and was 40 secs faster over 10k.
2:16 or DNF. why would he run faster than bobby curtis who had a great half going in and was 40 secs faster over 10k.
I think he will do well. Sub 2:13
So you think Curtis ran NYC up to his potential?? ON paper, he should have run a LOT faster. I'm just saying, on a good day Ollinger can be in the 2:10-2:11 range. Curtis on a good day, should be better than 2:16 right?
There are some great 10K guys, Mark Nenow comes to mind, who never reached their potential in the marathon. I guess I might have a prejudice to Steeplers. I think they are inherently tougher.
Really 2:11? You think he can run with guys like Meb and Ritz.
I say a DNF. The article said he's going to try and run right under 5:00 pace. I just don't think he's done the distance work the other guys have and the lead pack will break him.
2:23, he will finish, it will be slow.
steeplers tend to do well in the marathon
paul kosgei 2:09.00
bernard barmasai 2:08.52
wilson boit kipketer 2:11.07
ken martin 2:09.35
malmo 2:12
first time i say high 2:11
correction martin ran 2:09.38 at new york, malmo 2:12.23
i think cierpinski was a steepler before running marathons as well.
douglas burke wrote:
steeplers tend to do well in the marathon
paul kosgei 2:09.00
bernard barmasai 2:08.52
wilson boit kipketer 2:11.07
ken martin 2:09.35
malmo 2:12
first time i say high 2:11
Steve Jones
Here come the ridiculous predictions. Nobody ever learns their lesson. The marathon is not a 10k. See: Bob Kennedy, Dathan Ritzenhein, Bobby Curtis, Fasil Bizuneh, James Carney...(the list continues indefinitely).
High-2:11 puts him top 5 at worst. What indicates that Olinger should finish top 5 in the Olympic Trials Marathon? That's not to say he shouldn't be shooting for top 5, but if he does pull it off, it will be a big, big surprise.
The Party's Crashing Us wrote:
Here come the ridiculous predictions. Nobody ever learns their lesson. The marathon is not a 10k. See: Bob Kennedy, Dathan Ritzenhein, Bobby Curtis, Fasil Bizuneh, James Carney...(the list continues indefinitely).
High-2:11 puts him top 5 at worst. What indicates that Olinger should finish top 5 in the Olympic Trials Marathon? That's not to say he shouldn't be shooting for top 5, but if he does pull it off, it will be a big, big surprise.
the list of people who HAVE SUCCESSFULLY run good marathons after success on the track geb, tergat, gebremariam, mosop, wanjiru etc. same with the woman radcliffe, shobukhova, e. dibaba and the list goes on and on.
Yeah, all of which were peaking at 95 mpw, and DEBUTED with stellar performances. Right?
And who ever said that success on the track precludes good marathoning? Nobody would disagree that fast track PRs are helpful.
Toughness counts for nothing. Every elite runner is tough. When you hit the wall it doesn't matter "who has the most guts" either you have it physically or you don't you can't will your way to a fast time.
Ollinger will DNF ~ If he is smart he'll drop as soon as he realizes he is over his head ~15-18 miles. Don't waste months recovering from this bad idea!
all the ones i mentioned ran well in their debut if you throw out geb's 2:41 at 9000 feet at age 14.
geb 2:06.35 for 3rd at london
tergat 2:08 for 2nd or 3rd
gebremariam won new york in 2:08
wanjiru 2:06 course record at fukuoka
mosop 2:03 for 2nd at boston, if you dont want to count that because of the favorable wind, then 2:05 to win chicago.
radcliffe 2:18.56 for 2nd fastest woman ever.
shobukhova 2:24
e. dibaba 2:22 and she ran that on 5 days notice,
The article I read says Ollinger wants to go out in 5:10s. If he can make it to 20 at that pace, he throws down a 31 minute last 10k for 2:13:20. Finishes in a solid 8th place.
did he say 5:10 per mile pace for the first half?
then that is 1:07:44, if he picks it up past 30K
or over the final 10K and can run a negative split
(1:06:30-1:07:00, or 5:04 to 5:06 per mile)
that means sub 2:15, but no faster than 2:13.
please, feel free to check my math
pretty nice marathon debut, but it don't get
you on the team to London
Olinger doesn't say that's what he 'wants to go out in'. Looks like he is saying that's his best guess on what the first few miles will be like and looking back on history he is probably fairly accurate with that presumption. I wouldn't be at all surprised with a 2:10-11...also wouldn't be surprised with a DNF either.