NIKE CROSS NATIONALS PREDICTIONS

CBA for the win. They broke the Homdel course record WITHOUT their #2 guy, a 15:54 runner. The course record was set last year by the team that got 5th. Throw him into the mix, and they blew the doors off of NXN NE. It is going to be a battle, but their 3-5 are better than American Fork's and Davis's. Carroll will put 2 in front of their 1 possibly, but if CBA's front 3 can limit the distance they give up to those two, their 4&5 will dominate Carroll's 4 & 5.

something to consider: every one of CBA's runners have run on this stage. Even the guys that are new to the varsity team for this season (soph, couple juniors) ran in the open race at NXN Nationals last year. They know how to handle the energy of the weekend and focus. Teams can be dismantled by how they handle, or don't handle, the events and energy of the weekend. This is "been there, done that" territory for the entire group from CBA. Fresh minds, fresh legs. Sweats off, on the line. CBA's going to roll.

CBA dominates the boys & Saugus pulls huge upset for girls

FM

Saratoga

Tatnall

North Shore

Simi

Fanning

Macedeo

Baxter

Cain

neale

CBA

Fork

FM

Carrol

Shaker

Ryan

Futsum

Smoragiewicz

nowak

leahy

CBA - clear eyes, full hearts, cant lose.

The girls predictions show that NY deserves more teams in nationals. I think 3 auto's and room for more. Although Canadaigua was back a ways, Bronxville may have run if they knew 3-5 NY teams could go. Eat Aurora might also deserve a shot.

Boys is fine at 2 auto's.

It will be inferior to Footlocker.

1. Christian Brothers, NJ

2. American Fork UT

3. Southlake Carroll TX

4. North Central WA

5. F-M NY

6. Trabuco Hill CA

7. Davis UT

8. Columbus North IN

9. Rancho Cucomunga CA

10. York IL

Girls NXN

1. F-M NY

2. Saratoga Springs NY

3. Southlake Carroll TX

4. Simi Valley CA

5. Carmel IN

6. Tantell DE

7. Saugus CA

8. Ft Collins CO

I predict all teams will wear Nike and be virtually indistinguishable by nature of their aliases. I guarantee that Rich Gonzalez will be excited by the goings on.

An educated person wrote:

It will be inferior to Footlocker.

The FM girls are obviously among the top runners in the country, and many of the best individual girls in the country like Macedo, Knight and Neale are going to be up there hammering. The last winner of NXN boys (Verzbicas) became the first since Alan Webb to break 4:00, and ran under 8:30 for 2M. The prior winner, Craig Lutz, was the second freshman at NCAAs last week (the only other freshman in front of him was Lawi Lalang, the winner). Last year's lead pack included Ammar Moussa, who just made major contributions to CU's great season, and Edward Cheserek, who has broken every course record on the east coast this season. The NXN field is obviously good. Julie Macedo went out there from Delaware to run the OPEN race last year (and she didn't even win it). Perhaps you have some other reason not to like NXN, but it has nothing to do with the quality of the field.

My predictions for the girls:

FM

Saugus

Saratoga.

Finally, the committee really ought to make their process for at large bids more transparent. Simi is a good team, but taking them after a DQ for a flagrant push at state (yes, I watched the video) is simply wrong, and taking 4 girls teams from CA is very hard to understand. It was also illogical last year, when 3 of the 4 CA teams finished in the bottom half of the girls field.

I hope the committee:

1. Makes its membership known.

2. Makes its *process* and *criteria* for selecting at large teams known.

3. Figures out that there are good teams in the 48 states not known as CA or NY.

Miami Belen will finish in the top 5 at least.

Mark my words

My predictions for the girls:

FM

Saugus

Saratoga.

Predictions are fun when people don't get too serious and defensive. I like your picks but I'm saying watch out for Toga.

I was at the NY/NE Regional and early in the race I thought Toga would take it. They came closer than they have recently. I'd like to see them win with FM 2nd. I hope North Shore has an outstanding race and is in the top 5.

If the Cali teams run as poorly as usual Nike should rethink them as their own "region" and open it up to some better teams.

But- if I was betting I'd go with FM- Toga-Saugus

golden doggie wrote:

CBA dominates

+1

Think about the single-state regions: Cali and NY. California represents an area roughly equal to Northern Florida through Virginia, and a lot of it is pretty densely populated. New York has a few high-density population centers, but NYC doesn't produce a single decent team. Yet, we are talking about how CA is getting too many teams, and they perform poorly at nationals, vs every single national champion on the girls side has come from NY. Give NY 5 auto bids and then move the two remaining at-large bids to the highest ranking teams not Q'd automatically. That way, it's a bit easier to understand what is happening and who is getting a selection, and the best state on the girls' side is getting more bids. The guys' and girls don't need to be the same, and the selection process doesn't need to remain constant each year. Hell, it would be cool and add some drama if the region that performs best (according to some pre-determined metric) gets an additional auto bid the following year. that would spice things up a bit.

This is spot on. NCAA used to do this and there were a lot less teams that didn't belong getting to the show in those days. Also fascinating that people are picking on Cali teams for finishing in the latter half but not picking on the regions that consistently dominate the very last places. Isn't that where the true problem lies? For instance, South, Southwest and Southeast should be merged into two regions.

I predict it's another boringggggg X race that no one cares about except for the coaches who forced their runners to go there.

funny wrote:

Give NY 5 auto bids and then move the two remaining at-large bids to the highest ranking teams not Q'd automatically. That way, it's a bit easier to understand what is happening and who is getting a selection, and the best state on the girls' side is getting more bids. The guys' and girls don't need to be the same, and the selection process doesn't need to remain constant each year. Hell, it would be cool and add some drama if the region that performs best (according to some pre-determined metric) gets an additional auto bid the following year. that would spice things up a bit.

Or... combine NY and NE, leave the outstanding invites as at-large selections, and watch NY get even more teams to nationals on the girls side. :)

Alternatively, combine NY and the New England states (plus Massachusetts) and move NJ and PA to a "Mid-Atlantic" region with VA/DE/MD/DC/WV, watch the quality of girls teams improve and NY possibly gets even more teams to nationals on the girls side. As a potential bonus: widen the course, add in 3 more at-large invites to expand the field to 25, and consider allowing a max of 5 teams per region (instead of 4), though it should be rare that a region would get 5 spots (sorry Cali)

5 spots to NY is a bit too much. Pretty much every year, they need 3-4 spots. Only one year I can think of where they were remotely close to 5.

CBA finishes 4th.

Just so you know Watchout, although they don't run with the Federation in XC (they do in indoor and outdoor), Massachusetts is a part of New England.

watchout wrote:

Or... combine NY and NE, leave the outstanding invites as at-large selections, and watch NY get even more teams to nationals on the girls side. :)

Alternatively, combine NY and the New England states (plus Massachusetts) and move NJ and PA to a "Mid-Atlantic" region with VA/DE/MD/DC/WV, watch the quality of girls teams improve and NY possibly gets even more teams to nationals on the girls side. As a potential bonus: widen the course, add in 3 more at-large invites to expand the field to 25, and consider allowing a max of 5 teams per region (instead of 4), though it should be rare that a region would get 5 spots (sorry Cali)

5 spots to NY is a bit too much. Pretty much every year, they need 3-4 spots. Only one year I can think of where they were remotely close to 5.

1 FM

2 Saugus

3 Saratoga

4 North Shore

5 Tatnall

FM, Saugus and Saratoga are the most experienced and Saugus is also the lone girls squad from California that's run well in Portland. That being said, FM runs away with it, Saratoga fades to third trying to beat FM and Saugus romps to a huge second place finish. This is Simi's first trop to NXN (California teams have never run well their first time, Saugus was 18th in 2006), plus they've lost their #4 runner due to a broken collarbone (seen on Rich's twitter, so I say they don't even finish top ten, nor does La Costa Canyon, 16th last year, or Redondo (they have no fifth. North Shore takes fourth, but nothing higher without a #5 and Tatnall bombs. Like I said, FM , Saugus and Saratoga are the three greatest programs in US history and they'll all finish top three like last year.