Does she have a legit shot?
Thoughts anyone?
Does she have a legit shot?
Thoughts anyone?
Not likely, she was 7th at USAs and ran the 16th fastest 5k among American women this year. Even factoring out which women ahead of her are likely to choose other events over the 5K she would have to improve tremendously and a lot of runners would have to pick other events. Additionally Lisa Koll, Amy Begley, and Shannon Rowbury all ran 15 flat or faster in 2010. There are about 20 American women with faster 5k PRs than her right now so for her to qualify for the Olympics she would need to become faster than 16 of them or have enough choose other events/get injured/get slower. It is a long shot for 2012. 2016 her chances are much higher
5000 METERS
14:45.20 4 Shalane Flanagan Oregon TC Jul 08 Paris DL
15:00.57 1 Lauren Fleshman Nike Aug 06 London DL
15:08.64 4 Desiree Davila Hansons-Brooks Aug 06 London DL
15:10.01 1 Molly Huddle Saucony Jun 24 USATF
15:10.44 5 Jen Rhines adidas Aug 06 London DL
15:11.47 9 Kara Goucher Oregon TC Jun 03 Eugene DL
15:11.49 2 Jenny Simpson New Balance Apr 15 Mt. SAC
15:14.25 10 Magdalena Lewy Boulet Saucony Jul 29 Stockholm DL
15:14.31 2 Amy Hastings Brooks Jun 24 USATF
15:15.34 1 Liz Maloy New Balance Jul 19 Lignano
15:16.04 3 Angela Bizzarri Brooks Jun 24 USATF
15:21.18 5 Julie Culley New York AC Jun 24 USATF
15:21.75 4 Christin Wurth-Thomas Nike Apr 15 Mt. SAC
15:25.58 1 Jessica Pixler Colorado Mar 25 Stanford Inv
15:27.71 6 Sara Hall Asics Apr 15 Mt. SAC
15:27.72 7 Neely Spence Shippensburg Jun 24 USATF
She will make the Olympic team in 2016 where she will get 3rd place in a brutally hot Rio marathon.
It will be tough for Spence to make the team in 2012 given the depth in the women's 5K. But I will say that she is at that age where some runners make huge leaps forward time wise. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if she went sub 15:10 in 2012 or even sub 15:00. I'd throw in Jessica Pixler in there a well id she is healthy.
Nothing is impossible, but the top tier pros like Molly/Shannon/Jenny/Shalane/Kara/Desi/Koll/Lauren have really separated themselves. However, I think Neely can be just as good as the 2nd tier pros like Culley, Bizzarri, Hall, McKaig and the up and comers like Hasay and Infield, etc.
Most of the tier one athletes are really good, they are good enough to make world championship finals; however, most of them will be have moved on the roads and/or will be on the down side of their careers in the next 3-4 years. – I think Neely has a bright future, but there is a lot of depth in U.S. distance running right now and she will have to wait her turn.