Hall
Meb
Dark horse or if not, ritzenheim
Flanagan
Goucher
Deena
Hall
Meb
Dark horse or if not, ritzenheim
Flanagan
Goucher
Deena
Barnicle running well?
Hall
Ritz
Hartmann
Cabada
Arciniaga
Torres was in my top 5, but then he had to go run into a car in Ireland.
Why? Hall and Ritz are always contenders. Hartmann seems to be able to run hard when it is needed. Never anything crazy fast or with the Kenyans persay, but a strong American. Fernando Cabada and Arciniaga are the dark horses. Cabada knows how to race and has started training with Hudson and the group in Boulder. Arciniaga, not sure what he is up to lately, but I am guessing he is ready.
A 6th, even though you wanted a top 5, would be Mike Sayenko. Just a guess. I didnt include Meb, who is in great shape obviously, but I have to think NYC took too much out of him. I hope this doesnt happen, but I think he will get injuried pre race or fade in the chase pack of the trials because he is too tired.
Women:
Flanagan
Goucher
Davila
Blake Russell
Lewy Boulet
And a 6th as a guess is Adriana Nelson Pirtea. My guess on the womens actual order...who knows! I could see it becoming a great race. Or one of them (Magda) going out hard and everyone else racing for second.
Hall
Meb
Someone Who will Get 60th at the olympics
someone with a 28:40 10k pr
someone who likes hot dogs
I think it'll be Flanagan, Davila, MAYBE Goucher.
Meb and 4 slow white guys. None will be in the money.
A better question would be where the first American will cross the finish line in London.
Maybe 1 in the top 20.
Men:
Hall
Meb
Gotcher
Ritz
Hartman
For pete's sake we are weak in the mens marathon. WTF.
Women:
Much better race, probably:
Flanagan
Davila
Rothstein
Goucher
Lewy-B
wepmad wrote:
Are we going by times or looks? I vote for the later and suggest posting pics.
Then here is my vote. Thanks for improving the scenery of a marathon.
http://www.powerbar.com/Uploads/511/2511/2511-t.jpghttp://www.google.com/imgres?q=tera+moody&um=1&hl=en&sa=N&biw=1280&bih=579&tbm=isch&tbnid=1QHH1QQ9lC6DxM:&imgrefurl=http://www.letsrun.com/photos/2011/houstonhalf/imagepages/image40.php&docid=YUboujwJbqDaVM&imgurl=http://www.letsrun.com/photos/2011/houstonhalf/images/Moody_Tera-Houston11.JPG&w=400&h=600&ei=8irFTvWcCOL10gHji6mdDw&zoom=1&iact=rc&dur=281&sig=106804290653723496782&page=1&tbnh=168&tbnw=107&start=0&ndsp=15&ved=1t:429,r:7,s:0&tx=26&ty=93http://media.photobucket.com/image/tera%20moody/nuke-runner/tera-zoila.jpgI like Serena Burla coming back from her cancer/surgery last year for a darkhorse in the 3rd spot...
Women's Side:
Flanagan
Davila
Goucher
Koll
Lewy-Boulet
-----
Kastor
Cherobon-Bawcom
Lisa Koll qualifies through her 10k times. If she's training with Flanagan and Goucher, then I think she's a serious contender if she shows up.
Men's Side:
Hall
Meb
Ritz
Gotcher
Nelson
Moran would be in the mix if he decided to run, but I'm not sure he has enough time to recover, so he may as well get a payday at a spring marathon rather than risk a poor showing at the trials for nary a dollar.
The women's race is fascinating. It is very possible any of the following women could make the team.
Flanagan - favorite but she has only run 1 and it was 2:28 and her coach is still somewhat unprove in the marathon.
Goucher - 2:24 PR but has had injruy problems and has a new coach (see Flanagan)
Davila - seems like a lock but haven't seen anything from her the last several months - is she just training or is she injured
Bawcom - crazy talent, but has she overcooked it with races this fall chasing money
Kastor - hasn't done anything in last several years, until she just ran a 1:11 half (is she back?)
Hasting - Most improved runner of the year - but only 1 marathon - can she put it together under the pressure of the trials?
Rothstein - see Hastings (hope she doesn't try and wear a Picky Bars tattoo)
Magda L.B - She'll be ready and go 2:28 but will that do it this year.
Moody - good WC race, so would look to go sub 2:30 at the trials but there are reports of some hamstring issues
Pritz - good debut in NYC, but tight turn-around to the trials leaves her questionable for the type of improvement needed to make the team. Has the talent to be in the hunt.
Grandt - 2:29 PR, great improvement - but it was at Boston with the trailwind, can she do it under pressure at the trials?
McGregor - good racer but she will need to move up a level to get a team spot.
It is conceivable that we have 6-8 women go sub 2:30 in this race. The question is what it takes to make the team 2:25 or 2:28.
How the women's race will unfold:
My guess is that pace is kept reasonable with a 1:13 mid to 1:14 low at the half and then the pack slowly dwindles until mile 20 when 4-5 women are left in the lead pack. Then one of the big dogs makes a move to go for the win and the rest of the pack is strung out.
I don't think anyone benefits from making it overly fast, as they will have to do all the work, but I also don't think a few of them will let it be overly slow either. Probably steady 5:35-5:40's per mile until someone makes a move after 30k.
Men's race a little more clear cut - I think its very likely that Hall repeats his 2008 performance, but this time a healthy Meb claims second with Ritz third.
Hall
Meb
Ritz
Abdi?
Ritz
Hall
Meb
Hartmann
Nelson
Flanagan
Desi
Goucher
Magda
Russell
Hall
Ritz
Meb
King
Gotcher
Flanagan
Goucher
Davila
Kastor
Rothstein
Going by impulse...
Hall
Ritz
Meb
Gotcher
?
Will have to study this further to get a better sense....
Meb
Ritz
Hall
Trafeh
Curtis
Davila
Cherobon Bawcom
Flanagan
Hastings
Boulet
Women -
Davila
Flanagan
Goucher
Lewy Boulet
Kastor
Men -
Hall
Meb
Ritz
Hartmann
Gotcher
Someone mentioned Rupp...is he even running the OT marathon?
Davila is healthy... if you knew Hansons background you'd know they don't race during a marathon segment.
That being said, I don't believe anyone is a lock in a Trials type setting.
I say:
-Hall
-Meb
-Hartmann
for the men... and:
-Davila
-Flanagan
-Lewy-Boulet
for the women.