OFFICIAL Nyc Marathon Predictions Thread

And yes, I realize that's a CR in both races. I think that Keitany/Smith will keep the women's race fast and strung out, while Mutai et al will have a split en route to a CR. No-one in the men's race will take it out like Ryan Hall often does, but they should be at 64 at the half or so. Women's will go out in 71.

IMO: Kebede over Gharib and 2:11 for the Swiss would be quite good in NYC...

Not sure about some of those times, but both races have to be fast. The Kenyan men probably need a course record to impress the selectors.

In the women's race, Keitany knows that the only way for her not to be selected, would be to let herself get outkicked by Kilel in a slow race. She won't let that happen.

You mentioned Kim Smith wanting a fast race, but perhaps also Inga Abitova who has run 2:22 in London 2010. Shobukhova has already booked her ticket for London and there is only two spaces left on the Russian women's team.

Unless you go with the runners world theory that she missed Chicago because she might be injured.

http://newyorkmarathon.runnersworld.com/2011/10/new-york-city-marathon-elite-race-cheat-sheet.html

Henry Rono and Gerry Lindgren will be somewhere in the top 25.

Sounds pretty reasonable that Gebre would split up the Kenyan podium. However, I believe that the winners time will be 2:06:xx.

I don't think V. Rothlin can run 2:11. I like that guy though.

Also I don't think Kim Smith will be on the podium. Agreed with Keitany, she will win this. But a lot more easily than you predict.

I do think Smith is pretty underrated. She has more drive than any of the other non-African runners and she looked amazing until she messed up her leg at Boston. There's no way she can beat Keitany, but if anyone will be close it's her. Rothlin's time prediction may be a bit fast in hindsight, but I see him at 2:13 at least.

What's the course record? It will be broken on Sunday ... by a Kenyan, of course.

Apolo Ohno for the win!

realist. wrote:

Apolo Ohno for the win!

Good call, I like it!

1. G Mutai,

2. Gebremarian,

3. E Mutai,

Not much has been said about Kebede but he might surprise everyone.

Doubt CR will fall as 2:07:43 was set back in 2001 with pacemakers I believe. Guys will go out slow (for 2:04-2:05 guys)

Raptured wrote:

My predictions...

Men:

1. Geoffrey Mutai 2:07:32

2. Gebre Gebremariam 2:07:45

3. Emanuel Mutai 2:08:02

4. Matthew Kisorio 2:08:44

5. Jaouad Gharib 2:08:46

6. Tsegay Kebede 2:09:17

7. Meb 2:09:58

8. Feyisa Lilesa 2:10:14

9. Viktor Rothlin 2:11:35

10. Bobby Curtis 2:12:42

I'd buy the top 3, but with faster times.

1. Gebre Gebremariam 2:06:55

2. Geoffrey Mutai 2:07:02

3. Tsegaye Kebede 2:07:37

4. Emmanuel Mutai 2:08:09

5. Feyisa Lelisa 2:08:55

6. Matthew Kisorio 2:09:10

7. Jaoud Gharib 2:09:33

8. Meb Keflezhigi 2:10:30

9. Viktor Rothlin 2:11:40

10. Bobby Curtis 2:13:20

I hope Kim front runs and wins!

men

1. matthew kisorio

2. tesgaye kebede

3. geoffrey mutai

4. jaoud gharib

5. meb

6. bobby curtis

7. emmanual mutai

8. gebremariam

9. ed moran

10. erzykas sisay

women

1. worknesh kidane

2. mary keitany

3. kim smith

4. inga abitova

5. galina bogomolva

6. jen rhines

7. isabewlla anderson

8. dulce felix

9. caroline rotich

10. lauren flesahman

both course records should go.

douglas burke wrote:

women

1. worknesh kidane

2. mary keitany

3. kim smith

4. inga abitova

5. galina bogomolva

6. jen rhines

7. isabewlla anderson

8. dulce felix

9. caroline rotich

10. lauren flesahman

Is "flesahman" running? Is she healthy?

douglas burke wrote:

women

1. worknesh kidane

2. mary keitany

There is NO way Keitany finishes 2nd. If she has healthy and doesn't run into unforeseeable problems, it will be an easy win. If something comes up, I predict she finishes outside the podium or DNF.

Is Alistair "Craig" Cragg running NYC tomorrow?

We said on Friday that we'd give our predictions on Saturday after the press conferences. Well it's still Saturday outside of the East coast so here you go. I don't actually think the stars will finish in this order exactly but we rank them in order of most likely to win to least likely.

1) Geoffrey Mutai - How do you not pick a guy that this year has run 2:03:02 and won the Kenyan XC Trials by 44-seconds?

Answer: You don't unless he's hurt. He said he's been healthy so he has to be considered the favorite.

Honestly, the 44-spread in Kenya might be the most impressive thing he's done all year.

2) Emmanuel Mutai - Normally the London champ is the favorite but people need to remember that before his win in London, Mutai was very good at finishing 2nd as he was 2nd in his previous 3 races.

3) Mathew Kisorio - He's almost certainly going to be a big star eventually so we don't want to look bad and no have him in our top 3. If he's the new Wanjiru, then we want to be able to say we were fans before he got big.

4) Tsegaye Kebede - HE was our favorite for London. He's got 500,000 reasons to try to win in New York.

5) Gebremariam - He sounded confident in the press conference and he's the defending champ. But an insidersaid to us at the LRC/Puma bash last night that he didn't think Gebremariam was going to do well. When we told this unnamed person, Gebremariam said his training had been going well our sourc replied, "So he's trained well since he dropped out with an ankle problem at Worlds in August. But how was the training before August?"

Top American - I say Bobby Curtis. Wejo says I'm crazy and Meb.