How fast has New York M to be comparable to 2"03'38 ?

According to the ARRS, NYCM is 46 sec. slow on average over its history, so that would be 2:04:24.

http://arrs.net/HP_NYCMa.htm

thanks

didn't think it was low-2"04 course ?!

Haven't you heard? Marathon records are BS!

i'm going to throw up 2"06-flat as opener

this is the king race...

I'll take that bid. I don't really see it being under 2:04:30. High 2:05 to low 2:06 seems realistic if the weather is good and there aren't any downed trees blocking the course in the last few km.

survey says wrote:

According to the ARRS, NYCM is 46 sec. slow on average over its history, so that would be 2:04:24.

http://arrs.net/HP_NYCMa.htm

Don't forget Frankfurt is about 4 seconds fast on average. This year, the course has been slightly altered to become faster. (And I think there have been changes in prior years, too.) Also, the weather conditions were almost ideal. So the difference might be more like 1 minute or more.

You need rabbits to get your answer.

survey says wrote:

According to the ARRS, NYCM is 46 sec. slow on average over its history, so that would be 2:04:24.

http://arrs.net/HP_NYCMa.htm

Just eyeballing that data, it looks like the bias has increased in recent years. NY has moved away from the paced time-trial style race that has become the norm for many faster races, so the style of racing may be nearly as much a factor as the terrain. In any case 46 seconds seems low, I'd guess closer to 2 minutes for the elites. The forecast conditions for this year look to be very good, so I expect we're about to find out what's possible there.

2:05:30

Jock Hall wrote:

You need rabbits to get your answer.

this is right - we will never know, unless NYCM uses rabbits.

I'd say anything under 2:06 would be equivalent to a world record.

ventolin^3 wrote:

opening bids for still wind & nice fahrenheit/hygrometer please

offer...

Forecast looks great: cold but not too cold, calm wind:

2:06:20

Btw: keep in mind best wind would be S but not too heavy.

agip wrote:

Jock Hall wrote:

You need rabbits to get your answer.

this is right - we will never know, unless NYCM uses rabbits.

I'd say anything under 2:06 would be equivalent to a world record.

Agreed, it's a totally different 'style' of marathon and the course isn't geared for records. Anything in the 2:06 range would be a remarkable run.

bump

ventolin^3 wrote:

bump

2:05:06 with a 1:01:50 very relaxed last half. Wow....

That 205 on that shit course surpasses the 203 mark

you would have lost your money hope you didn't take that bet...

Rbyrne wrote:

That 205 on that shit course surpasses the 203 mark

defindly.. this was the fastest marathon by far.. so strong, unbelievable.. in Frankfurt this could be a low 2:02..

Hmmm,According to this ARRS link, http://www.arrs.net/TB_Mara.htm average marathon biases are:+52.3 New York City (NY/USA)-1.1 Frankfurt (GER)-68.5 Berlin (GER)So New York is typically 52 seconds slow, while Berlin is 69 seconds fast, and Frankfurt (and Chicago -0.1) are fairly neutral.I haven't seen specific race time biases for these 2011 races, but assuming we can use the "average" race time biases:- The 2:03:38 in Berlin is only worth 2:04:46.5- The 2:03:42 in Frankfurt is worth a 2:03:43.1- A 2:05:06 performance in New York is worth a 2:04:13.7This year's Boston advantage was computed to be -1:37 (?) this year, making a 2:03:02 worth 2:04:39.Sammy Wanjiru's Olympic performance of 2:06:32 was worth 2:04:00.This link http://www.arrs.net/AllTime/ATB_Mara.htm should be updated after the end of the year, and then we can see how all of the 2011 races compare, according to statistical calculations by the ARRS.

survey says wrote:

According to the ARRS, NYCM is 46 sec. slow on average over its history, so that would be 2:04:24.

http://arrs.net/HP_NYCMa.htm

it is 2:02 low for sure!!!!