40:00 10k ---> 3:20 marathon on low mileage?

I'm entirely serious:

Run for 7.5 minutes; walk for 30sec; repeat.

Each run-and-walk cycle will carry you a bit farther than a mile (I suspect--the 7.5min by itself will/should do that), and you'll be practically as fresh at 20 miles as at two miles.

Then you can decide how you want to handle the last 10k, based on what your time is at that point: run it in, just keep repeating 7:30/:30 cycles, whatever.

I know walking breaks are anathema on this board, but if your target is just 3:20, this'll get you there--easily.

Again, I'm entirely serious.

I would go with option 3 and starting out in 8:00. There is nothing wrong with a 20 minute marathon PR :).

And by the way my coach ran his first marathon on about 35 MPW and he ran a 3:07 at age 49(1:34:xx/1:32:xx) but he had about 7 years running experience before he ran his first marathon.

Good luck.

You might take a look at the page linked below. It's somebody's attempt to predict marathon performance of a 10k result factoring in weekly mileage.

http://www.hillrunner.com/jim2/id64.html

Citizen Runner wrote:

You might take a look at the page linked below. It's somebody's attempt to predict marathon performance of a 10k result factoring in weekly mileage.

http://www.hillrunner.com/jim2/id64.html

Yep. Saw that link too and I think it's pretty good. 3:20 = 200 / 40' 10k = 5.

A factor of 5 could be reached at 40mpw...my view is that 25 mpw with hard long runs, strength workouts and some speed, plus swimming 5k yards a week has got to be somewhat equivalent to 40 "normal" mpw. I guess I am ballpark, but it's TIGHT

Option 3, and I would expect the last few miles to hurt too.

Option 3, and I would expect the last few miles to hurt too.

ALH359 wrote:

I would go with option 3 and starting out in 8:00. There is nothing wrong with a 20 minute marathon PR :).

And by the way my coach ran his first marathon on about 35 MPW and he ran a 3:07 at age 49(1:34:xx/1:32:xx) but he had about 7 years running experience before he ran his first marathon.

Good luck.

That's how I am leaning towards as well. Start out easy at 8:00 and refrain from picking it up until mile 10, and then maybe 7:30s. That's how I did all my "long" runs btw.

10 x 8 + 10 x 7.5 = 2:35 at mi 20. That leaves 55' to break 3:30 (i.e. 8:50 min/mi pace) or 45' to break 3:20 (i.e. 7:14 min/mi pace). That last option would be a pretty baller negative split!

Go w/ option #3 no matter how frisky you feel on race day morning. And understand that by mile 20 you'll be working hard just to keep moving. Good luck to you.

Strong consensus on option 3 it looks like. I really appreciate all the productive answers so far and I have to ask:

does anyone think that option 1 is viable? Easy start, get some feel with the 7:30s, and even if I slow down in the last 6.2M, still have a chance to hit 3:30, while leaving a (small) probability of getting near 3:20 if I underestimated my MP?

I really like starting slow, so I could start even slower than 8:00 and pick it up after, making that run a very long progression run. It's a given I wont be running my best this time around, but I do want to learn from it for the next one (in which hopefully I'll be able to build a better base)

keny wrote:

ALH359 wrote:

I would go with option 3 and starting out in 8:00. There is nothing wrong with a 20 minute marathon PR :).

And by the way my coach ran his first marathon on about 35 MPW and he ran a 3:07 at age 49(1:34:xx/1:32:xx) but he had about 7 years running experience before he ran his first marathon.

Good luck.

That's how I am leaning towards as well. Start out easy at 8:00 and refrain from picking it up until mile 10, and then maybe 7:30s. That's how I did all my "long" runs btw.

10 x 8 + 10 x 7.5 = 2:35 at mi 20. That leaves 55' to break 3:30 (i.e. 8:50 min/mi pace) or 45' to break 3:20 (i.e. 7:14 min/mi pace). That last option would be a pretty baller negative split!

Seems like you have a pretty good plan. Just remember 8:00 will feel easy on race day for the first few miles.

At 42 I ran a 40:19 10k and did three unmeasured 2:30-2:40 runs on trails and soft surfaces in the previous 8 weeks with an average weekly total of 40-50 miles and ran 3:15. I ran 7:10-7:15 through 20 and faded to my 3:15. 8 min pace for someone who,s racing 6:30's is going to be painfully slow. 7:30's should be pretty easy and comfortable.

I also suggest you go with #3. The mileage and is not high, the long runs not long enough and you need more. 3:20 would be ambitious. Whatever pace you decide, I would do even splits.

Well, if your race is this weekend, you should do what you think best, and probably not start something you've never practiced; but if your race is a week or more away, I have to recommend just taking a session or two to try what I recommended above: 7:30 running, 0:30 walking, and repeat.

I remember "running" (I use the term loosely) the national championship marathon, and being passed in the last miles by a guy who was doing something precisely like this: running, walking a bit, running. He went by and finished before I even got to the stadium.

I know it's a matter of pride for us, to be able to say, "I ran the whole way"; and I guess it's a question of whether time or pride is more important to you.

Thanks FYI. I read that this method works, people have run in the 2:50s this way so I believe you!

However I'm not trying to BQ so missing the time is not life breaking.

I want to:

1) be proud of my run

2) learn

3) accept that I might fail

I also know it will hurt. It's a marathon! NYC to be precise. I'm local so I know the course well.

On my 16 miler (2:06:01) I felt good at the end and I was very confident I could have continued and last the last 10 in 1:20ish...so that's why I was hesitant to "only" have 3:30 in mind.

As other have pointed out 3:20 is (very ambitious). That's 7:38...which is between 7:50 and 7:30 hence I had thought option 1 made sense. Because even if I faded I could still hit 3:30, while leaving the chance of a 3:20.

Two weeks until the race.

So far Ive decided to run mile 1 at 8:30 (up), mile 2 at 7:50 and settle into a groove to hit mi 10 no faster than 78.

From mi 10-20 I may just run by feel depending on my body feedback that day.

I have no doubt mi 22 and up will be cruel.

Oh btw in this final month I lost 8 lbs to try to boost my pace on race day. I also ran all long runs and mp runs without any food, on empty stomach sometimes on no sleep. I haven't experience fatigue in any of my run.

If Mile 1 is run in 8:30 and you hit Mile 10 in 78 minutes, the math says you'll end up running miles 3-10 too fast.

My advice -- nothing faster than 7:50 pace from 1 to 10. And good luck to you.

I need more data: What was the total time for the 6 mile progression and what were your mile splits? I don't know what you mean, exactly, by 3x10' at 7:06 with 5' rest. What have you been swimming? Did you swim at all before your first marathon? What was your 10k going into your 3:50? How long ago was it? When is this race? How hard is the course? What is the weather expected to be? I know I've asked a lot of questions, but I think they're all important.

If you don't feel like answering all of the questions, and if it's a fast course and you get favorable weather, then my advice is to take a shot at option number 1.

I'm very happy to give as much info as you'd like. Here we go:

It is a "test" I do regularly with ascending heart rate range.

Mile splits were:

9:14 at HR 132

8:54 at HR 146 (up Cat hill in Central Park)

7:50 at HR 151 (long down harlem hill)

8:06 at HR 167 (huge uphill in northern Central Park)

7:04 at HR 174 (rolling hills)

5:54 at HR 187 (pretty much balls out)

Total time: 6M in 47:04, avg pace 7:50

Build up from scratch up to 2500 yd. This past month has been two swims a week replacing what would have been easy runs (Wed and Sat).

I do ladders on Wed, e.g. 4 x 100, 2 x 200, 400, 400, 2 x 200, 4 x 100

I do a straight swim on Sat. I maxed out at 2750 yards in 1 hour straight swim.

My HR is high in the water b/c I am not a swimmer.

Did I do that for the first marathon? A tiny bit in the perdiod right after my injury, but not in the last 6 weeks prior (I had given up the thought of getting healthy to run it!)

No this is great. If I can provide you with any more data points feel free.

Other info:

My story is that again this yr I struggled with little injuries. I got the 39:xx 10k easily on 20mpw and this April-May-June could run 4 mi at 6:30 without really trying. Then I tried to up the mileage slowly and my body was breaking down. Frustrated, I went back to what I like best: 3 hard workouts a week, w/o easy running.

In the end I realized I lost my base (e.g. my HR at 130-150 yields a much slower running pace) but build strength when running at HR 160-170. My top speed is intact, since the 5:54 mile was my fastest ever mile in training.

PS. When I run sometimes I set up the auto lap feature on 5 miles for instance instead of 1 mi, that helps with "averaging" rather than chasing a specific pace. I love this trick, that's why I was interested in option 1, since it has worked during long runs. My option 1bis now is 10M at 7:50, still easing up the first few miles, and next 10M at 7:30. That averages 7:40 for 20 and then if I can hang for my life I'll break 3:20 and if I fade (without completely blowing up 3:30 may still be in the bag).

Thanks!!! (and btw keny=kesako, sorry about double screename)

Oh in addition to the post above, since I mentioned HR a lot:

My resting HR is around 48

My estimated max HR is 200 (I hit 198 in training)

My LT HR is around 178 to 181

5k pace is around 189+

My HR average last yr for the marathon was 168

I think my HR for MP miles is 168 to 172. I do understand that it would be on the higher side (if not higher) when optimally trained, and toward the lower end when untrained (since a fit runner can exercise at higher intensity for longer).

Bump