NY Times Article on Olympic Trials/Fall Marathon Doubles With Some Interesting Quotes from Ryan Hall

wejo wrote:

The article got me thinking overall are the Olympics a net financial loser for Ryan Hall.

I don't think they are.

I think they are. Here's why:

1. There are three levels of being an Olympian Athlete. Winning gold, winning a medal and competing in the Olympics. Hall already competed in the Olympics and with the Kenyans (and Ethiopians to some extend) as they are, he knows that he will neither win nor medal.

2. Hall's 2:04 credentials have a shelf life expiration date. Everyone knows how this was achieved. He got a huge paycheck from Chicago for being a 2:04 Marathoner and ended up disappointing (compared to the 2:04 benchmark). He runs the trials and the Olympics and he will have two more 2:08-2:10 races on his resume. Don't get me wrong, this is great but it makes it very clear he isn't a 2:04 man and there won't be another appearance fee like Chicago this year.

I agree with that. Take away Ryan's OT win from 4 years ago and who is he? Yes, still our fastest marathoner but that single race helped catapult him to the top of the marathoning world (in the US). That's why I think these elites should do a few more races each year. Not necessarily marathons but shorter races to generate some wins. Everyone likes a winner.

I agree wrote:

I agree with that. Take away Ryan's OT win from 4 years ago and who is he? Yes, still our fastest marathoner but that single race helped catapult him to the top of the marathoning world (in the US). That's why I think these elites should do a few more races each year. Not necessarily marathons but shorter races to generate some wins. Everyone likes a winner.

What shorter races could Hall win? There is always some kind of Kenyan showing up that he can't beat.

This is the dilemma: if the prize money is high enough to attract Ryan Hall, it will also attract dozen of Kenyans.

Nutella1 wrote:

2. Hall's 2:04 credentials have a shelf life expiration date. Everyone knows how this was achieved. He got a huge paycheck from Chicago for being a 2:04 Marathoner and ended up disappointing (compared to the 2:04 benchmark). He runs the trials and the Olympics and he will have two more 2:08-2:10 races on his resume. Don't get me wrong, this is great but it makes it very clear he isn't a 2:04 man and there won't be another appearance fee like Chicago this year.

I definitely didn't factor in Chicago paying him like he was a 2:04 man. That's a good point about his accomplishments having a shelf life.

I view Ryan as a super consistent marathoner. I don't view him as with more or less potential now than in 2008 (the Trials may have been his best marathon), but race directors might.

I did leave out Ryan having more negotiating leverage because of the Olympics trials. This fall with a good conscience he could say, "I'm not going to run a fall marathon. I've got the Olympic Trials in January."

The shelf life argument is a good one and Ryan has already made the Olympics in the past but if he came out and said, "I'm not going to run the Olympics because it will cost me appearance fees", a lot of marketers wouldn't touch him.

Bill Rodgers didn't just run the Olympics in '76 (granted, not a lifetime best performance)-- he came back and won NYC (2:10), Fukuoka (2:08, short course, 2 weeks after NYC), and Baltimore. This idea that you can't come back to have a quality fall marathon (or two, or three) is a farce.

But if he does well in the Olympics he stands to make a lot in endorsement deals, will be able to command a higher appearance fee, will be set up well for negotiating his contract. It's a tradeoff.

I bet Meb has made a large chunk of money just off being an olympic medalist.

wejo wrote:

but if he came out and said, "I'm not going to run the Olympics because it will cost me appearance fees", a lot of marketers wouldn't touch him.

Right on. It's a lose/lose situation.

At this point, the best thing he can do is to run the trials as easy as possible while still winning - just focusing on place 3 would hurt him. What would that be....maybe 2h12m? Then maybe he can still run a spring Marathon (Boston) ...

Given the mileage level and athletism of the modern world class marathoner, I don't think the following schedule is too difficult.

Year 1: Early Spring Marathon, Summer World Championship Marathon, Late Fall Marathon

Year 2: Winter/Spring Olympic Trials, Summer Olympics Marathon, Late Fall Marathon

Year 3: Repeat of year 1

Year 4: Spring Marathon and Fall Marathon

3 marathons per year for 3 years and then 2 for the 4th year. For people doing 120-140 miles per week that should be manageable.

Throw in a couple half marathons and a couple 10k's or 15k' each year and you have a schedule that gives you ample opportunities to training and getting paid.

You just can't be a wimp and take a month off after your marathons and tour Africa like some have been known to do.

Freelove wrote:

But if he does well in the Olympics he stands to make a lot in endorsement deals, will be able to command a higher appearance fee, will be set up well for negotiating his contract. It's a tradeoff.

I bet Meb has made a large chunk of money just off being an olympic medalist.

What is "doing well" in the Olympics? If Hall does "well" that usually means 4th or 5th. That's not going to help him. Now if he'd medal, things would be different. But he won't.

Heck, even Renato talked about Mosop was back doing workouts 9 days after Boston. Very fit higher mileage runners recover fine in 2-3 weeks after a marathon effort.

Ryan Hall talked about being over-raced/over-trained when he did the US trials in NY, London in the spring and the 2008 Olympic marathon. If the trials were in the fall, he would skip a spring race to be prepared for London. If the trials were in the spring, he would skip the fall to be ready for the trials. What Hall really wants is for USATF to just give him a spot on the team without having to compete at the trials.

Nutella1 wrote:

Hall already competed in the Olympics and with the Kenyans as they are, he knows that he will neither win nor medal.

before we go handing the kenyans three medals, just remember kenyan men have won a grand total of three olympic marathon medals, all by japanese-based runners...

hall may be a longshot to medal, but his odds are better than meb's were in 2004...

Some guy stating he obvious wrote:

Heck, even Renato talked about Mosop was back doing workouts 9 days after Boston. Very fit higher mileage runners recover fine in 2-3 weeks after a marathon effort.

Yes and then he was injured and was only back to 80-85% in Chicago and has to watch the Olympics from home. Go figure.

Nutella1 wrote:

Yes and then he was injured and was only back to 80-85% in Chicago and has to watch the Olympics from home. Go figure.

I seriously doubt that Moses Mosop will not be competing in the Olympics next summer. He'll be the third Kenyan chosen.

Precious Roy wrote:

Ryan Hall talked about being over-raced/over-trained when he did the US trials in NY, London in the spring and the 2008 Olympic marathon. If the trials were in the fall, he would skip a spring race to be prepared for London. If the trials were in the spring, he would skip the fall to be ready for the trials. What Hall really wants is for USATF to just give him a spot on the team without having to compete at the trials.

There are many of us who believe that Ryan's over training has nothing to do with his race schedule but rather the fact that he (under Mahon) stuck to a 7 days schedule with 3 hard days. Given that he was at altitude and his hard days usually included some very long tempos and long runs this was ultimately too much for him.

I think he could have handled things fine with a switch to a 9 day schedule instead of a 7 day schedule and could have stayed under Mahon and been just fine. Not sure if he and Mahon discussed this but it seems much more likely than his race schedule being the problem.

He said he recovered from both the trials and London just fine but that his training after London was flat, likely because of not enough easy days in his schedule vs. the volume of workouts.

Precious Roy wrote:

What Hall really wants is for USATF to just give him a spot on the team without having to compete at the trials.

I don't really see a problem with this.

If the Olympic team was picked by the first two at the trials and the fastest runner over the last two years (other than the first two finishers) then I think we'd end up with a great team and ensure that a bad-luck injury didn't keep someone off the team.

If Hall gets a cold three weeks before the trials then he's not going to the Olympics and, regardless of whether you think he *will* medal, he has to be viewed as our best chance to medal.

Wow, I think your wrong here because the completely retarded men's and women's Marathon course next year in London, as we all well know, doesn't even start or finish in the Olympic stadium! It basically consists of a few laps around central London so that the couch potato fans can see all of the famous cliched landmarks of the city instead of the real working class borough of Tower Hamlets and other "East end" areas of Hackney, Bethnal Green and Clapton, etc...

The course itself will both be an insult to the participants, the Olympic tradition and the hard working people of London's east end who gave up so much of their land to the Olympic Park development area! This has been an absolute absurd and selfish decision that I would say is even blasphemous from an Olympic standpoint! Why the he'll then spend hundreds of millions of dollars and pounds to build the damn Olympic Stadium at all? Why the hell not just run all of the events and damn races on the streets?

The Marathon has almost always finished in the Olympic Stadium for the last 110 years, Why give into commercial and selfish pressures? The IOC should not have been persuaded so easily by Coe and company! For sure Ryan is going to lose money by competing if he makes it there, but honestly, what's the point? It will hardly seem or feel for him like anything different than other road races or marathons that he's already competed in!

Obviously Ryan doesn't pocket all that cash either! It goes to his agent, coaches, sponsors, etc... well, maybe not coaches anymore? Ha! But seriously, the vitality of this specific race has been reduced and diminished to little more that a sideshow or afterthought! I'd wager that there's not one serious contender out there that really likes this course selection! Oh, they'll keep their mouths shut all right so as to not offend their countries honor and or get told off by their corporate sponsors. By not finishing the race in the Olympic stadium, it is also an insult to all those former olympic champions and medalist who gave it their all for years just to make it into that arena after 26 miles of pain and glory! This has been a completely asinine decision and sell out which only rips off the athletes in the end!

The "test run" on the course was considered a complete success by some - but for who? The city center? The spectators that make it down there on the crowded tube lines? As a fan, I'm not looking for a spectacular fast time on a more authentic course, but the habitual 90 degree turns that running it will now require from the athletes seems almost ludicrous to me. The integrity of the event is woven into the tradition of the event and should not be compromised for convenience sake! If I were Ryan, I might consider skipping it all together and still go for that major win or high placement in a premier Fall

race some place else!

jaguar1 wrote:

Bill Rodgers didn't just run the Olympics in '76 (granted, not a lifetime best performance)-- he came back and won NYC (2:10), Fukuoka (2:08, short course, 2 weeks after NYC), and Baltimore. This idea that you can't come back to have a quality fall marathon (or two, or three) is a farce.

What you point out though is part of the problem. In today's game, running 8 2:08's won't make you a superstar in the marathon. It'll just make you highly consistent, top 10 marathoner. To get in the top 3, you have to be able to run at least sub-2:07 (and more like sub-2:06) on any given day. So, you could make the same amount of money (but probably less) running more mediocre races more often, or, you could race less and eek out that extra 2-3% and get up a few spots higher on the podium. I still think Hall is trying to find the perfect mix for him and hopes to run even faster than he has to date. Whether he will accomplish this or not is to be seen, but, I don't get that he is settling on being just another ran. That also means he's not afraid to put it all on the line against the Kenyans. But, remember, and most folks still criticize this, running is not his first priority; his faith is. So, his fastest times may already be behind him, but, it is still his job and he's still out there doing it day in and day out.

the cancer guy wrote:

or you could race less and eek out that extra 2-3% and get up a few spots higher on the podium.

This is what everyone assumes, but you don't know unless you try. Racing more frequently is how the non-Africans of the 70s/80s got better. The added benefit is you learn to recover faster too.