Is Nat Champs Ok State vs. Wisconsin, or am I missing something?

SEC - AL or LSU

Five guys in 1.8 seconds and it lacks depth? I would say #5 is REALLY deep. The next guy was 26 places behind, which is not a lot of time in a meet like this. Also, something probably happened to Brice, who had been finishing ahead of Shields.

And the fifth guy for Wisconsin was ... a guy people have been picking for top 10.

26mi235 wrote:

Five guys in 1.8 seconds and it lacks depth? I would say #5 is REALLY deep. The next guy was 26 places behind, which is not a lot of time in a meet like this. Also, something probably happened to Brice, who had been finishing ahead of Shields.

And the fifth guy for Wisconsin was ... a guy people have been picking for top 10.

I suspect the OP was referring to depth in the sense of needing a strong 6 and 7 in case of injury and/or a bad day for one of the top 5.

In fact, upon reflection, it seems that anyone with any sense would suspect the same thing.

Yeah, very solid 5, but not much room for mistakes. I feel like they've probably got it though. They made a serious statement today.

Wisconsin over-rated they were on their home course, ran it perfectly.

Moroccan in training wrote:

Yeah, very solid 5, but not much room for mistakes. I feel like they've probably got it though. They made a serious statement today.

Yeah, great race. Great team. They have got to be considered co-favorites with OK State at this point.

In response to the OP - Last year it was supposed to by OK State and Stanford at the big dance. Only one showed up. The year before, same thing. Year before that OK State was supposed to battle Oregon for the title and ended up 8th.

Strange things happen at Nats. Expect that the unexpected will occur.

To me it seems that it's all Wisconsin and Oklahoma. I haven't analyzed it very deep but that much seems really clear.

If someone else is up there, who would it be?

Big difference between Oklahoma and Oklahoma state, Moroccan.

Nationals makes a world of difference when you put all the best runners in college in the same race during their "peaks"

o.O wrote:

Nationals makes a world of difference when you put all the best runners in college in the same race during their "peaks"

Or after their peaks, in the case of Stanford in recent years...

And I would not go underestimating that other Smith (Martin) like this. It may be that his program is not quite ready to win the thing (yet?), but he's done a fantastic job building the program, and he clearly knows how to coach distance runners--and he knows how to win.

Dave Smith clearly made a statement, but Martin may well be holding back and waiting for the big dance.

Nairobi blows wrote:

Big difference between Oklahoma and Oklahoma state, Moroccan.

Fo sho, I meant OSU.

It's hard for me to compare Wisconsin and OSU right now because this weekend they raced such different races. The Chili 10k is very different than UW's invite. Distance, course, weather, # of contenders etc.

What would OSU's time average, spread, etc, look like if they were at the UW meet?

What would UW's team info look like if they were at the Chili Festival?

Oklahoma State got in its practice 10k early and the top five were all under 30. They have three solid candidates for a top twelve finish. I'd be shocked if they didn't run away with the title once again.

jjjjjjjjjj wrote:

Oklahoma State got in its practice 10k early and the top five were all under 30. They have three solid candidates for a top twelve finish. I'd be shocked if they didn't run away with the title once again.

They have 4. Girma is yet to run. He was 7th last year.

Anyone know what the story is with Girma? The big 12 meet in a couple of weeks is a little late to be making a debut.

If he's fit then Oklahoma State has to be the overwhelming favorite, with a shot at a Stanford '03 type blowout.

This has nothing to do with depth right now. Wisconsin proved their number 1 ranking. They had 5 guys who ran sub 23:50 on a course that was/is built to be exactly like nationals. Wisco ran phenomenal today and right now I don't think that anyone is in a position to beat them.

Wisconsin impressed this weekend and they are the team to beat.

Diego Estrada ran both the Cowboy Jamboree and the Wisconsin race.

Top 5 OSU guys trailed DE by a total of 3 minutes in the first race. Top 5 Wisco guys trailed him by a total of 1:43 in the second race.

If we count only top 4 (assuming Girma steps in for OSU), it's 81 seconds for Wisco and 101 seconds for OSU.

We can all think of a dozen factors that will intervene between now and November. But it seems likely that if the two had faced each other this weekend, Wisco would have come out on top.

Comparator wrote:

Diego Estrada ran both the Cowboy Jamboree and the Wisconsin race.

Top 5 OSU guys trailed DE by a total of 3 minutes in the first race. Top 5 Wisco guys trailed him by a total of 1:43 in the second race.

If we count only top 4 (assuming Girma steps in for OSU), it's 81 seconds for Wisco and 101 seconds for OSU.

We can all think of a dozen factors that will intervene between now and November. But it seems likely that if the two had faced each other this weekend, Wisco would have come out on top.

This analysis is so bad it is hard to know where to start.

Perhaps with the fact that you are basing everything off of their performance relative to one runner. Hate to break it to you but a runner is not a machine putting out the exact same performance each race. Basing anything off of Estrada when he could easily be 30 seconds faster or slower in a given race (yielding a difference of 2:30 in comparing top five) is, well let's just say questionable.

Then perhaps we should move on to the obvious fact that none of the top guys for Wisco or OSU are running all out yet. Are they running 10 seconds behind capability? 25 seconds? To think that they are each running exactly the same time slower than all out is ludicrous. To not recognize that they are not running all out when Wisco's top five are within 1 second of each other and Lowe and GF are spending the last 100 meters of their race playing rock-paper-scissors to determine who should cross the finish line first is beyond ludicrous.

All that can be said at this point is that they should be co-favorites going into championship season. What's up with Girma is a crucial unknown. And surprises pretty much always pop up at nationals.

Not an analysis but one point of comparison and fodder for speculation. It's easy to win an argument if you can attribute ludicrous, naive presuppositions to your interlocutor. I made no claim about who will win nationals, nor about the relative "easiness" of the teams/individuals' efforts. And I specifically mentioned Girma and stuff that can "pop up" (as you say) at Nationals.

Why you would expend the energy to debunk a reading of tea leaves is beyond me. If you don't think that's a fun activity, no one is making you do it. But if you think people who read tea leaves for fun regard it as a science ("machine putting out the exact same performance" etc.), the you're the one with a naive assumption.

Co-favorites they are; no one can say anything seriously convincing beyond that. Then why does a thread like this exist? Because it's fun to speculate.

geeze, a simple "you're analysis may not tell the whole story" would have been fine. didn't need to get your panties in a bunch & rip on the guy for two paragraphs. and then of course you leave us with...no analysis/comparison. thanks!!!

Comparator, thanks for the DE/OSU/UW comparison, interesting. comparing performances against common opponents is the best you can do when two teams haven't faced each other yet.

[/quote]

This analysis is so bad it is hard to know where to start.

Perhaps with the fact that you are basing everything off of their performance relative to one runner. Hate to break it to you but a runner is not a machine putting out the exact same performance each race. Basing anything off of Estrada when he could easily be 30 seconds faster or slower in a given race (yielding a difference of 2:30 in comparing top five) is, well let's just say questionable.

Then perhaps we should move on to the obvious fact that none of the top guys for Wisco or OSU are running all out yet. Are they running 10 seconds behind capability? 25 seconds? To think that they are each running exactly the same time slower than all out is ludicrous. To not recognize that they are not running all out when Wisco's top five are within 1 second of each other and Lowe and GF are spending the last 100 meters of their race playing rock-paper-scissors to determine who should cross the finish line first is beyond ludicrous.

All that can be said at this point is that they should be co-favorites going into championship season. What's up with Girma is a crucial unknown. And surprises pretty much always pop up at nationals.[/quote]