I am planning on running the Richmond marathon on 11/12 and hope to finish in 2:55. For a warm up I am running the Baltimore half on 10/15. Running calculators put the half marathon time for a 2:55 marathoner at 1:23 (6:20 pace). Given my training this seems reasonable, but I am not planning on tapering for this race so I am wondering if I should adjust my target a little.
How do people come up with goals for warm up races that they are not tapering for? Any suggestions on what time would indicate 2:55 fitness?