2011 Big 10 Cross Country

Here's mine for the women

1. Michigan - Mike has his ladies back

2. Penn State - BAS has a solid solid group

3. Iowa - should win but Anderson just can't pull it off

4. Michigan State - can't duplicate without Macleod

5. Indiana - Helmer is still too focused on the men to even care about the women

6. Minnesota - down year for Wilson but they'll be back

7. Illinois - this program has gone down, down and down further ever since Harvey left

8. Ohio State - nothing special

9-11....

-Wisconsin - special runners but never healthy. Absolutly no team mentality with this group.

-Northwestern - almost just should stay home?

-Purdue - never ever will be anything with jack sprat in charge.

On threads similar to this on in previous years a lot of people thought Indiana was gonna beat Wisconsin, but then they were not even close.

However, this year Indiana actually has a legitimate chance at winning! Bayer is a contender for the win, Poore, Hubers, Mayhew are all very experienced and accomplished runners (maybe even more than some Wisconsin runners on the track), and then Dannemiller, a transfer from Cornell is a 8:40 steepler and 40th at NCAA xc who becomes the 5th man instead of Turner. Everybody needs to be healthy though. How is Bayer doing after a very serious injury from the Spring?

3. I think Michigan is the dark horse in the Big Ten, and maybe even nationally. They will probably be third this year, but look for Gibby to get Big Blue rolling soon.

4. Minnesota, they have mead and no depth, which is about the same as every year. But their no name guys will step up and Minn will beat the other mediocre teams, and make nationals

5. Penn State. But these guys need a lot of work outside of Dawson and Mcnally. Similar to Minn with some front runners and no depth. A deep mid Atlantic region this year prevents a national birth

6. Purdue. Yes Purdue! They are a very improved team this year, but will they be able to actually run well at Big Tens. They can't be last every year, and with how bad some of the other big ten teams are gonna be, this could be their year.

7-10. Basically I don't know who is on these teams except thode on Iowa which means they probably are not too good.

11 Nebraska. Are they in the Big Ten yet?

12 Northwestern. The cellar dwellers of the big ten should feel lucky they can never get 12th place like the women's side.

Bayer wasn't injured this spring. He was redshirting in order to get some base work in since he hadn't been able to do that in a while. He raced at both Stanford meets are ran well with 13:32 and 3:39. He'll be up there this fall.

I have also thought that Indiana is a strong and improving team. Adding a solid guy to the top 4 not only 'replaces' Turner, but frees him from too much pressure and may allow him to race better. He has continued to do well in the Steeple and he should be getting stronger every year, and he might be down a couple of pounds on what seems like a biggish frame. He is also a greater threat at Big Tens, with a potentially fast 8k course (vis a vis Regionals and NCAA's 10k).

Finally, Indiana has been learning how to compete. Their performance at NCAAs after their disappointment at Big Tens was a very good sign. I think that the team has faith in their coach and his staff.

That said, Wisconsin not only did a decent job of replacing the Big Ten Champ, they have also solidified the next level in multiple ways. Connor is now a real threat, as shown by his Big Ten track success, winning the 5000 as a (RS) freshman. Krause's resume is continuing to look good with a 28:4x 10,000 last spring and without the problem the last 800m he would have been top 15 at NCAAs.

Shields is continuing to improve, Brice won and was (co-) Big Ten XC athlete of the Week, and Brill (right behind Aprill (Michigan #1 from Big Ten's?) are also stronger and faster. People do not even know who Schwaderer (RS 2009, no results listed for 2010, one of what seems like a handful of mechanical engineering majors on the team) is but he ran well and took about a minute off his 8k PR (on admittedly a quick course).

I think that there is a big drop from 1/2 to #3, with questions involving a number of teams that may be improving or recovering (MN).

As for the Women, that race is a little more open at this point with the listing above looking like a good assessment with the caveat that most of the first ten could move several places.

By the evening of the 14th a lot more will be known (and more by the 16th).

Stop with Michigan talk on men's side.

Wisconsin way ahead as usual.

Indiana way aheadof 3rd

Then look for OSU, Minnesota and maybe Penn State.

The Big 10 is really wide open this year. Outside of the top three really all the teams are interchangeable which leaves some former Big 10 bottom dwellers, namely Purdue, a very good opportunity to turn some heads. I agree with what some other people have said about Neberaska being a bottom dweller for their first few years in the Big 10 but I think they will be a middle of the pack team soon enough due to their massive athletic budget that dwarfs all other Big 10 teams except maybe Michigan and Ohio State.

IU should be able to sit on Badgers until last K and roll them up. Bayer was indeed injured last Spring; in a boot.

INDIANA - GOODBYE WISCONSIN

WISCONSIN - NOT ENOUGH RACING

MINNESOTA - MEAD MEANS THEY SCORE 4

OHIO STATE - NOT TALENTED, BUT RACE TOUGH

MICHIGAN - FORYS/APRIL TOP 10

PENN STATE - GOOF FRONTRUNNER

MICHIGAN STATE - 9:45 2-MILERS CAN'T DO IT ANYMORE WALT.

ILLINOIS - NEW COACH WILL HAVE TEAM SWARMING WITH FOREIGNERS

IOWA - TRACK FOCUS

PURDUE- AS USUAL. JACK SUX

NEBRASKA - WELCOME THE CHEATERS

Wisco

Indiana

Penn State

Minnesota

Michigan

Ohio State

Purdue

Illinois

MSU

Nebraska

Iowa

Wisco, Indiana, Penn State, Minnesota, and Michigan qualify for nationals.

looking serious wrote:

IU should be able to sit on Badgers until last K and roll them up. Bayer was indeed injured last Spring; in a boot.

INDIANA - GOODBYE WISCONSIN

WISCONSIN - NOT ENOUGH RACING

MINNESOTA - MEAD MEANS THEY SCORE 4

MN will need to run very well to get third, Mead was only third at Griak and may be no higher at Big Tens and they lost the top two from last year. Illinois will hope for good things at home with everyone returning and could get third as all those in front to 3rd lose important people.

Wisconsin - they are racing enough: two preliminary races then:

1 Dellinger

2 adidas Invite [second biggest race of the year, by far, all in the same heat (not Blue and Gold splits)]

3 Big Tens

4 Regionals

5 NCAAs

That is more than enough racing. We saw last year that Indiana is closing the gap - adidas race - but that a gap still exists.

To review last year here we see that Indiana was about as close to fifth place Michigan State (100 seconds) as to Wisconsin (94 seconds) and 6 and 7 were much better. The lost runners/new additions favor Indiana slightly, as does the loss of home field advantage for the Badgers. On the other hand, Connors, Shields, Brice and Brill (plus others) provide a significantly better 5-9 than Indiana can muster, so Wisconsin is less vulnerable to injuries.

I also think that Indiana got smart last year when they realized that they did not want to have their season climax at the Big Ten and as a result they placed well at NCAAs. I predict that they will be using the same strategy again and will again place very will at NCAAs. I think that Indiana will have a bit of the 'Wisconsin advantage' this year -- they will be good enough to rest guys and run under control at Regionals, even more than they did last year, and that will likely help them a little bit more. I think that will use that extra margin prepping for NCAAs, not a double peak for the Big Tens.

Wisconsin will likely be shooting for the top and will be taking a bit of a risk at NCAAs, I think. And, the smartest guy on the team (and probably in the Big Ten XC top 30 runners) will get it right both at Big Tens and NCAAs this time.

1. 28 Wisconsin (23:48 1:59:00)

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1 1 Landon Peacock SR 23:41

2 4 Mohammed Ahmed SO 23:43

3 5 Elliot Krause JR 23:43

4 6 Maverick Darling SO 23:51

5 12 Reed Connor SO 24:02

6 ( 26) Andrew Shields FR 24:26

7 ( 33) Phil Thomas JR 24:33

2. 75 Indiana (24:07 2:00:34)

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1 2 Andrew Bayer SO 23:42

2 11 Zachary Mayhew SO 24:01

3 15 Ben Hubers JR 24:09

4 18 Andrew Poore JR 24:11

5 29 Desean Turner JR 24:31

6 ( 45) Andrew Weatherford JR 24:50

7 ( 56) Nate Morrow SO 25:08

3. 101 Minnesota (24:13 2:01:03)

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1 3 Ben Blankenship SR 23:42

2 14 Mike Torchia SR 24:03

3 17 Pieter Gagnon SO 24:10

4 30 Kevin Lachowitzer SO 24:31

5 37 Andrew Larsen FR 24:37

6 ( 43) Sean Olson JR 24:48

7 ( 51) Erik Truedson FR 24:59

4. 128 Penn State ( 24:23 2:01:52)

======================================================

1 8 Kyle Dawson JR 23:54

2 13 Vince McNally JR 24:03

3 27 Ryan Foster SR 24:30

4 34 Danny Pawola SO 24:35

5 46 Chris Cipro JR 24:50

6 ( 48) Owen Dawson SR 24:54

7 ( 54) Nick Scarpello FR 25:07

5. 141 Michigan State ( 24:27 2:02:14)

=========================================================

1 16 Ben Miller SO 24:09

2 23 Patrick Grosskopf SR 24:19

3 31 Sherod Hardt FR 24:32

4 32 Alex Russeau SR 24:32

5 39 Isaiah Vandoorne SO 24:42

6 ( 58) Joseph Dimambro JR 25:12

7 ( 62) Stephen Walker FR 25:23

6. 150 Illinois (24:30 2:02:26)

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1 20 Jim Riddle JR 24:17

2 21 Colin Mickow JR 24:18

3 35 Jordan Hebert SO 24:35

4 36 Nathan Troester JR 24:36

5 38 Dan Kremske JR 24:40

6 ( 52) Nathan Bohne JR 25:01

7 ( 59) Phil Pompei JR 25:15

7. 164 Ohio State (24:34 2:02:46)

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1 19 Chad Balyo SR 24:11

2 22 Jake Edwards JR 24:18

3 40 Donald Roys SO 24:45

4 41 Taylor Williams JR 24:46

5 42 Chris Fallon SO 24:46

6 ( 49) Adam Green JR 24:56

7 ( 57) Cory Leslie SO 25:09

8. 185 Michigan (24:39 2:03:15)

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1 7 Bobby Aprill JR 23:51

2 10 Craig Forys JR 23:58

3 53 Sean Bone FR 25:02

4 55 Morsi Rayyan FR 25:07

5 60 Zach Ornelas SO 25:17

6 ( 64) Dallas Bowden SO 25:32

7 ( 69) Mark Beams FR 26:21

9. 205 Iowa (24:47 2:03:54)

========================================================

1 9 Jeff Thode SO 23:56

2 25 Mark Battista SR 24:20

3 47 Sam Bailin SR 24:52

4 61 Chase Kadlec JR 25:19

5 63 Andrew Smith FR 25:27

6 ( 65) Nick Young FR 25:33

7 ( 67) James Paul JR 25:45

10. 212 Purdue (24:52 2:04:16)

=================================================

1 24 Caden Shields SR 24:19

2 28 Cale Allen JR 24:30

3 44 Charles White SO 24:48

4 50 Stephen Schulz SO 24:58

5 66 Scott Vicenzi FR 25:41

6 ( 68) Chris Surfus SO 25:56

7 ( 70) Ladd Mercer JR 26:23

My Buckeyes ceetainly bombed at Big 10's last year, but came back nicely at regionals to just miss Nationals with a 4th place finish behind Wisconsin, Indiana, and Notre Dame.

I think it will be Minnesota, Penn State, Michigan, and OSU all fighting for 3rd. Illinois, with new fiery coach and being at home may also surprise?

We all can agree Purdue will for sure be last.

Is Ben Miller running for Michigan State this season? He hasn't raced for them yet this season.

26mi235 wrote:

And, the smartest guy on the team (and probably in the Big Ten XC top 30 runners) will get it right both at Big Tens and NCAAs this time.

Who are you referring to?

gesgeg wrote:

Bayer wasn't injured this spring. He was redshirting in order to get some base work in since he hadn't been able to do that in a while. He raced at both Stanford meets are ran well with 13:32 and 3:39. He'll be up there this fall.

He ran very well in those races, but got injured sometime in May with a Navicular Fracture. There was a reason why he didn't do any races later in the season.

gesgeg wrote:

26mi235 wrote:

And, the smartest guy on the team (and probably in the Big Ten XC top 30 runners) will get it right both at Big Tens and NCAAs this time.

Who are you referring to?

Elliot Krause is a math major who has won numerous Academic All-American, Academic All-Big Ten at awards. While some require only a 3.00, at least one of his awards requires better than a 3.5, and 3.5 in math at Wisconsin while running 27:4x and coming in without quite the pedigree of guys like Ahmed is pretty good (he did win D1 WI 3200/XC, but did not make Footlocker Finals). [Nice guy, too, by the way.]

I thought the 'get it right' comment would help, since he had the same time as Ahmed at 3/4 at Big Tens a couple seconds out of first and was about 15th at NCAAs until the last 800m where he then lost 120 places and crawled across the line.

Under Helmer, IU has developed a nasty tendency to be in tremendous shape early and fade later in the season. Mick Byrne, however, has had a long history of having teams peak perfectly for the end of the season, and has carried that nicely from Iona to Wisconsin. Do not forget how close Wisco was to winning Nats last year - at 8k they were right with Ok State.

It's like Bob Knight once said about Lou Henson - "I figure I'm worth 2 baskets over him at the end of the game." That's how I see Byrne/Helmer currently.

Yes, IU ran very well at Nats last year, and 7th place was a terrific achievement, but no knowledgeable fan could say IU was in the Badgers' class in late October and November.

I sincerely hope to be proven wrong by IU this year, but right now, I'm taking the Badgers for Big Tens (although IU may get them on 10/14).

3rd place is wide open now, but for a change, I do not see Purdue at the bottom of the conference. So they've got that going for them, which is nice.

It's simple - if Indiana doesn't do it this year (win Big 10's)....they never will.

Fair enough? Helps that Conference isn't on Wisconsin's home course.

Much of this thread is opinion and homer bias, but the mere thought that PUrdue won't be last as usual is utter insanity.

Believe me when I say that I am not a huge fan of Purdue in general, I grew up in an IU Hoosier family, but this is probably the only time in recent memory where Purdue won't be the distinct under dog going into Big 10's. There are a few teams, including new comer Nebraska, who are going through "reloading" periods at the moment and just simply arn't very good.

So, finishing 7th is not that big a deal? Boy are you biased. Basically, Indiana has gotten better every year about competing at the year-end meets. They won at the adidas Invite but part of that was racing strategy (e.g., Wisconsin did a lot of the work leading the race etc, but it does not really matter in that race, just for Big Tens) and that made IU look like they would possibly beat Wisconsin. However, they did not have the team yet to do that when Wisconsin performs. IU went for it at Big Tens, but when it was apparent that it was not going to happen, the motivation dropped some. In addition, their performance there was a reflection of putting their marbles into the NCAA basket instead, which is exactly where they should have put them. That set of results is NOT failing to deliver. They were in good, but not super shape earlier (Wisconsin guys were training harder and not resting for the Invite, which was a strategic decision about the season). IU did have a purpose in winning; it gives them almost certain entry into NCAAs and it gives them confidence that they are getting better and can run with the best [and baskets are not worth anything at NCAAs] and arguably IU performed better with Krause's collapse.