Oly Trials Marathon Top 5--Pick em'

6) German Fernandez

T.L. the stallion wrote:

1) Jason Rahm

2) Galen Rupp

3) Dathan Ritz

4) Dean K.

5) Lukas V.

Is anyone coming down to actually watch this race? I really hope its better than the half championships last year. It was DEAD. So, so, quiet.

1.Hall - Shoe In. Hasn't run a "bad" marathon, ever. And is currently the fastest American-born marathoner. As said before, 2:10 marathoner, on a BAD day...

2. Ritz - If healthy, only second behind Hall. Talented and even if he's 80% healthy, he's still better than just about everyone else (minus Hall).

3. Up for the grabs here, my guess is Arcinigia, Meb, or Gotcher (I'm leaning on a McMillan guy here..). All three have run extremely well within the last year, or proven they can show up BIG when it counts...

Darkhorse:

Cabada. Been on fire recently in anything over a 10k. He's found his stride again.

Curtis: Great debut. Could be a sub 2:12 marathoner by January...

Goucher: Philly was a workout, the blood-thirsty Gouch of old returns.

Torres: What can he do on a faster course? He's been hiding in the shadows running the tougher NYC course.

Overrated:

Hartmann. Yes, he ran 2:11 at Chicago. What has he done sense then? (Nothing; a 1:03:39 at Philly...)

Abdi: Great 20k recently, but that's all to the add to the resume in the last year (and it wasn't fast).

Trafeh: 15k-21k seems to to be his distance, doubling that is another story.

As always depends where people want to go - at the end of the day, these are the women going to London.

Davila - class of American marathons right now

Moody - been making good strides, top American at worlds

Newberry - debuted third American at New York, second American at worlds

I would say that Goucher and Flanagan are going to stick to the track this go around at least - they've still got the speed for this year, why not. The marathon will always be there in 2016.

Detroit what??? wrote:

1. Hall

2. Ritz

3. Fecht

Another vote for Fecht.

Rupp could jog a 2:12? Doubt it! He might pass some trees and catch a whiff and spend 2 hours insisting they cut down all trees from his place to the finish.

I'd agree with the below except for your dismissal of debutants and the strange comment about Hastings. Add them to the mix and I think that's a pretty good appraisal.

Dumbest post of the entire thread.

Goucher was 10th in Beijing, while setting a pr and got beat by SEVERAL runners who weren't in Osaka, hence her bronze there.

She will continue to run on the track to improve her speed, but she will not be running the 10,000 in London unless she doesn't make the marathon but regardless, she still has no chance in London.

Flanagan will do the marathon and then see where the chips fall. Goucher has NO chance to even come close to medaling in London if she ran the 5 or 10. Flanagan on the other hand has way more speed than Goucher in both events

Goucher, like others have said, will have no easy time in Houston. I said last year that she won't be in the top 3 and I still believe it. Desi is a shoe in unless she gets sick or injured as no American is going to run away from her. Goucher isn't going to make it and will then run Boston to cash in...wait for it.

Nick Arciniaga will make the team, he may finish 3rd but look for a big race from the unassuming runner. He got a taste of the Olympics at Worlds and is hungry for more.

usatf wannabe wrote:

Men

...

5 Goucher

BWAH-HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!!

*gasp*

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!

*wipes tears from eyes* :')

7. webbb

!? wrote:

What am I missing here? Isn't Trafeh a Brittish citizen?

Why does everyone always confuse Mo Trafeh with Mo Farah?

Would not surprise me to see Ritz and Kara DNF, due to bad cramping and hip inflammation. Adam runs well and gets in, and the Goucher support system reverses!

Go Adam!

kara may dnf or may not, but she's too over confident and will be surprised. As someone above said, will run Boston$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

2011 Top 20 Performances in the HM by a US Runner (from TFN):

60:30 Galen Rupp (OTC) New York 03/20

62:17 Mohamed Trafeh (Ca) USATF Ch 01/29

62:20 Ryan Hall (Ca) USATF Ch 01/29

62:32 Fernando Cabada (US) Grandma’s 06/17

Patrick Smyth (Ca) USATF Ch 01/29

62:40 Meb Keflezighi (Nik) Dodge-San Diego 06/05

62:47 Fasil Bizuneh (Az) USATF Ch 01/29

62:49 Jason Lehmkuhle (Mn) USATF Ch 01/29

62:51 Ryan Vail (Or) USATF Ch 01/29

63:12 Abdi Abdirahman (Nik) New York 03/20

(10)

63:37 Jim Grabow (RunR) Huntington Beach 02/06

63:38 Michael Reneau (US) Grandma’s 06/17

63:51 Juan Carlos Trujillo (US) Seattle 06/25

63:53 Scott McPherson (US) Seattle 06/25

63:54 Zach Hine (Mi) Naples 01/16

63:57 Luke Humphrey (Mi) New Orleans 02/13

64:03 Scott MacPherson (Tx) USATF Ch 01/29

64:18 Jorge Torres (Co) USATF Ch 01/29

64:20 Jeff Eggleston (Az) Naples 01/16

Paul Hefferon (Mi) Naples 01/16

In the Marathon:

2:04:58d Ryan Hall (Asics) Boston 04/18

2:11:30 Nick Arciniaga (Az) Houston 01/30

2:13:12 Jeff Eggleston (US) Grandma’s 06/17

2:13:28 Matt Gabrielson (US) Grandma’s 06/17

2:13:40 Jason Lehmkuhle (Sauc) London 04/17

2:14:39 Luke Humphrey (US) Rock ’n’ Roll-San Di 06/05

2:16:44 Keith Bechtol (US) Grandma’s 06/17

2:16:50 Daniel Tapia (US) Rock ’n’ Roll-San Di 06/05

2:16:52 Sage Canaday (US) Rock ’n’ Roll-San Di 06/05

2:16:54d Zach Hine (US) Boston 04/18

(10)

2:17:09 Tyler McCandless (US) Grandma’s 06/17

2:17:32 Josh Cox (MamTC) Tempe 01/16

2:17:35d Paul Petersen (US) Boston 04/18

2:17:49 Michael Wardian (US) Grandma’s 06/17

2:18:05d Chris Pannone (US) Boston 04/18

2:18:13 Leo Kormanik (US) Grandma’s 06/17

2:18:21 Jason Flogel (US) Grandma’s 06/17

2:18:24 Chris Erichsen (US) Virginia B 03/20

2:18:33 Miguel Angel Nuci (US) Los Angeles 03/20

2:18:47 Jesse Davis (In) Houston 01/30

OK, so barring any debutants moving up based on a 10km qualifier, our 3 for the men are probably coming from this list (plus maybe Ritz, if he can get healthy). Looking at the marathon list, Hall is several minutes faster than everyone else (whether you consider his 2:04 a 2:04 or not). He doesn't need to be a 2:04 guy on the day, but a 2:09 is still going to be faster than everyone else in the field on their best day. Beyond that, it's kind of a crap shoot, with all of the guys having a performance at one distance or another. Meb has the palmares, but he's going to be 2 months off his New York race. He comes out of NY healthy and I think you've got to pick him. So, if the race pans out like most of the recent Olympic trials races (out in 1:06-1:07, close with a negative split), you have to pick based on one of two conditions: 1) Is anyone strong enough to go with Hall and Meb if they close in 1:03-1:04? In my mind, the only one who could come close to that is Ritz, and he may not be healthy enough to even start, much less closed down in a 1:04. So, you get situation nubmer 2, a Brian Sell type runner that runs a very steady pace and picks off guys, moving into 3rd around mile 24-25. In that case, it's either Nick Arciniaga or Jason Lehmkuhle.

In no particular order:

Hall

Trafeh

Cabada

Arciniaga

Lehmkuhle

...with top 3 being Hall, Trafeh, and Arciniaga.

Ritz I don't think will be healthy enough to start or be competitive, Goucher I don't think will be competitive, and I think Meb will be outshone by the "younger guns".

hall

ritz

joslyn

trafeh

goucher

Sorry to burst you all's bubbles but this is what we have already arranged for in advance.

1. Hall

2. Ritz

3. Rupp

1. Goucher

2. Davila

3. Flanagan

hall, no doubts he ran a 2:04, he wants olympic glory

eggleston, an amazing newcomer over the last year, wc team

arciniaga, has put down consistent good time

macpherson, dark horse (its texas, he'll be ready)

meb/ritz (one of em will be back, even if both are, just 1 will make it)