I have a 10k PR of just over 34 flat (was probably a bit faster, but the splits on my PR were a little crappy). I'd say 33:30-33:40 shape would've been fair. I had a string of injuries that kept me out for nearly a year and caused me to gain 15 pounds. I've been back at training for a couple months and feel like my endurance is becoming OK again, but haven't been diligent enough to drop the weight yet (finally got my diet in check, so hopefully should take 2-3 months). In any case, I time trialed a 10k today in 39:15, which felt completely balls out. How much of the extra 5 1/2 minutes of time can be attributed to the 15 pounds of excess weight and how much is just being cardiovascularly out of shape. Is there a general rule of thumb for this?