if an athlete runs 73:00 for a half during a build up to his debut marathon, what is the worst you would expect the runner to do in the full marathon, assuming he runs a relatively smart, even race (ie no bonking to 10 minute pace in the last 5 miles). this athlete is averaging above 90 mpw and has done numerous easy 20 milers and 10+ mile tempo runs at faster than "marathon" pace.
DNF
It can alassss wrote:
DNF
Seconded. You can never really plan for a "worst case scenario" in the marathon
Tell us what pace the runner will run for the first 10 miles of the marathon, and we'll give you better guesses for "worst case".
marathon nub wrote:
if an athlete runs 73:00 for a half during a build up to his debut marathon, what is the worst you would expect the runner to do in the full marathon, assuming he runs a relatively smart, even race (ie no bonking to 10 minute pace in the last 5 miles). this athlete is averaging above 90 mpw and has done numerous easy 20 milers and 10+ mile tempo runs at faster than "marathon" pace.
2:45ish? That would be pretty well off pace.
2:35
Sorry, missed the part about assuming an even-paced race.
Debut marathon overrules everything. It really depends on the person, and I agree that there can be no expected worst case, other than DNF.
I would expect them to manage 2:33-2:37, and would be surprised if they were slower than 2:40 with smart race, no unforseen problems, and that kind of mileage.
That's very close to what I ran (1:12:57) and ran 2:36:57 off of a crash and burn effort. I hadn't done a lot of high mileage weeks (averaged about 50-55) , so I imagine that the person in question could run quicker than I did, I'd guess 2:33-2:35 worst case scenario.
Does the runner in mention prefer to speak in the third person? This will greatly affect my prediction.
If you're here asking about a worst case scenario, you sound like a head case and will probably DNF or bomb miserably.
How fast are they at the mile or 5k? If their best mile is much under 4:40, they do not have to be able to break 2:40. Right around 4:40 and they should run 2:33 to 2:37 on a fast course. Much over 4:40 and they most likely haven't really trained for a mile and you can't say much.
DNF
The worst case scenario would be that you suffer a heart attack or a stroke or something and drop dead on the course.
Close.
Worst case scenario would be that an asteroid comes and hits earth while you are running your marathon. That would suck donkey balls. Or loosing your family would be way worse than just you yourself dieing.
Hank Moody wrote:
Close.
Worst case scenario would be that an asteroid comes and hits earth while you are running your marathon. That would suck donkey balls. Or loosing your family would be way worse than just you yourself dieing.
stop yah trollin ass
Not if you are a mid distance runner i ran a 1 hour 15 marathon on 20 miles a week with my average run at 25 minutes.
After starting to seriously train for middle distance this year i ran a 1 hour 11 marathon early in base. As a fun experiment i tried the marathon.
I ran 3 hours 15. My aerobic shape has improved on the HM as well. But after 2 hours my legs where to heavy to run any faster then 10 minutes per mile. I started out slow at 6.00 per mile and then went to 6.15 per mile this is my easy 'long' run pace...
I run 45 - 60 miles a week but i don't do 2 hour runs or any of that my long run is 60 minutes. It proves well enough for the Half marathon but for the marathon it was just not enough.
I am currently in about 4.10 shape for the mile and that marathon was not to long ago
I'll agree with the DNF, but other than that, you are taking away all the real possibilities, and that's not really a fair setup for a proper answer to this question.
You are going with the given that:
1) the athlete runs a "relatively smart, even race"
2) that the athlete doesn't bonk
Damn, if only all of us could go into a marathon knowing that those two things were taken care of!
What is "marathon pace" that this athlete has done those runs faster than?
Also, only 10 mile runs at that pace? Hmm. BIG difference between 10 miles and 26.2 miles.
Also, EASY to run a halfway decent half marathon based on 10 mile tempo runs and lots of 20 milers. WAY harder to take that same training up to the marathon level and do as well there.
I once ran a 1:17 half and a sub 33 minute 10k! on the way up to a marathon, and I had runs of 23 miles in there and thought I was doing well and then bonked at mile 21 and ran 3:20.
You haven't given enough information for us to make even a wild ass prediction, and even if you did, you can't take those bad variables out of it.
IF you look at conversion tables, a 1:13 half translates to about a 2:45 (and some say even a little faster) marathon. That is such a wild stab in the dark though...just way too many variables with a marathon.
2:35
the formula for worst case scenario is simple. 13.1 time x 2 - half your age.