HS Runner 5km prediction

You've already done VO2 Max workouts? What are you, nuts? Gosh it's early August for Christ's sake. You'll run 18:00.

I said "very few" - as in 3 or 4 over the last 6 months - this was one. Not trying to do them extensively, just keeping on top of what little speed I have while I have done a few road races over the summer. Saving regular vo2 max work for the business end of the XC season.

I ran low 17s last month and am going better in training now at all intensities than I was then. So 18:00 seems unlikely.

What's the course like?

Hills, fast, sheltered?

Course is flat and fast. Only issue is the wind as there is no shelter- when it's bad you really feel it there. Should have some other runners at similar pace to hide behind though.

You must have quite poor speed at this point. Or the course was short. Because that workout is much more indicative of 18+ shape, even if it's only 75-80% effort. Looks like you've got quite the aerobic base, however.

17:00 - trusting your lack of speed and great endurance

pure shexxx wrote:

You must have quite poor speed at this point. Or the course was short. Because that workout is much more indicative of 18+ shape, even if it's only 75-80% effort. Looks like you've got quite the aerobic base, however.

I have very poor natural speed. That last 33sec 200m may have been my fastest ever. I did some occasional speedwork over this last year (every other week), but my background is more just going out and running easy. Have done some longer reps at LT more often, but mostly just easy miles. Find that I do better the longer a race is. Mid 35 10km - looking to get close to 35 this summer. This will be only my second proper XC season.

If that 10km was recent I say you break 17 but only just.

16:49

I say just under 17 with good conditions.

Make sure you're hitting 5x1200, 4x1600, 8x800 workouts later in the season or something similar. You're natural endurance gives you a great advantage in cross country.

sub 17.

I would say 18:30 tops, ur workout times are pretty bad for 70 miles a week,

keep working wrote:

I would say 18:30 tops, ur workout times are pretty bad for 70 miles a week,

Yeah, but he says he's already raced low 17s, so I'm not sure he cares about your assessment of his workout times, nor is 18:30 likely. Sounds to me like he has great base and little speed. If he works hard at the faster paces during XC season I'm sure he'll get down to low 16s - plenty more to come as he works at speed more. Then that'll be decent payback for 60-70mpw. I'd be happy with that for sure.

Hope you break 17, TigerBoom. Good luck.

I'm going for a 17:02 - presumably a PR, but not under 17.

17:17