Rudisha Looks Beatable at Worlds

He's going to have to either run away from the field or learn some racing tactics in the next three weeks.

Kaki isn't exactly a master tactician.

nathan hale wrote:

What's he doing to do when a bunch of guys are right on him at 400?

I think he is significantly better than his competitors as long as the pace is under ~1:43.5 At paces ranging from ~1:43.5-1:45 he is marginally better than them. Without a rabbit I think he is still very capable of running a fast first 400 (under 0:49.5) and holding on to run a time faster than everyone in the field's PRs. With a reasonably fast first 400 (0:49.5-0:51) I think he still has the gear to beat everyone if there is a chase pack. With a reasonably fast first 400 (0:49.5-0:51) I think he has the ability to easily pass anyone (except Kaki) and then maintain the lead. Slower than that and his chances decrease but still good odds.

So, in short, when a bunch of guys are right on him at 400 he will: Accelerate faster, maintain his lead, and beat them to the finish line.

Beatable by whom?

He ran 1:43.68 at the Kenyan Trials at altitude for 800m after front running the whole way(no pacer) and after heats. That's a non paced race.

I think Rudisha will be fine at worlds if he makes it to the final. If the pace is 1:43 low or faster, he is pretty much invincible.

Rounds may be a problem, since its more likely to be slow and tactical- races in which I'm not so sure he can win. I can see him being beat by people with fast kicks, like Borza, in the semis. Having said that, he can't be that tactically retarded if he survived Kenyan trials alright.

alskfjasf wrote:

I think Rudisha will be fine at worlds if he makes it to the final. If the pace is 1:43 low or faster, he is pretty much invincible.

Rounds may be a problem, since its more likely to be slow and tactical- races in which I'm not so sure he can win. I can see him being beat by people with fast kicks, like Borza, in the semis. Having said that, he can't be that tactically retarded if he survived Kenyan trials alright.

slow and tactical for everyone else. he'll be in his own world during rounds, like every other dominant athlete of all-time

If Charles Jock makes the final, then all is well for Rudisha

Jock is cooked. He's just trying to maintain now, and it would be an awful lot to ask of a college runner after NCAAs.

He's going to build on anything he can get in Deagu for next year.

Altitude doesn't affect the 800, and the presence of Kaki on his ass does.

- wrote:

He ran 1:43.68 at the Kenyan Trials at altitude for 800m after front running the whole way(no pacer) and after heats. That's a non paced race.

Why would Rudisha be beatable in a race slower than 1:43? He doesn't have any weakpoints. If it's slow race, he's a 45 second 400 guy... and he has a 1:41.01 PR so I don't see how he loses a slow or fast race.

Think about how much easier Kaki had it tucking right in behind Rudisha. If Rudisha had been following Kaki, I bet he would have blown by him and won by a half second.

Just watched the race again and it looks to me like Rudisha could have run faster, but Kaki was at top end.

why does rudisha not look at all fatigued at the end of that race. even his WR he didn't look that spend. and his turnover looks so slow...

I noticed the same thing, I'd like to see him take a crack at a 1500/mile.

Nrbityw wrote:

Just watched the race again and it looks to me like Rudisha could have run faster, but Kaki was at top end.

Rudisha last year in African Champs led all the way.....first lap 51.6 then kicked big time with 250 to go and won by 2 sec in 1:42.8.........you guys who think he needs a pacemaker have no idea. He'll be even more dominant without a pace!!

he's a beast, yes, wasn't even breathing hard at the end.

I was at Crystal Palace and I never knew it was possible to jog a 1:42 but Rudisha seemingly can. The guy is effortless. The comment about his cadence is interesting too, it does appear really slow but he takes MASSIVE strides, and I mean seriously huge, he bounds along like an antelope. I think he could run the 800 in less than 100 seconds, he's a phenomenal athlete.

I assume youre talking about Martin Rudisha of Nairobi a 47 year old bricklayer. Or Moses Rudisha of Mombasa who runs a small food stand. Because David Rudisha does not look beatable and he will not be beatable. That is all.

In a non-rabbited race I think he'll have some trouble.

His coach should have found him an unrabbited race before Worlds to get some experience. All he does now is follow the rabbit for 400 and then today hold off 1 guy.

What's he doing to do when a bunch of guys are right on him at 400?[/quote]

If your PR was better than everyone else in the world by over a second then you would want/need a rabbit to pace you through 400 too. He's not going to waste his time running 1:44-1:46's to give someone else a chance every race. And in a tactical race if there are a couple guys sitting on him he is going to do what anyone would do... keep running hard all the way to the finish! :)

Has everyone forgotten that Rudisha got spanked at WC's in 2009? He's the favorite, sure, but he's not unbeatable, and he's not in world record shape like last year.