Ritz or Webb?

Ritz. Men's marathon field is actually weak. If Ritz can be healthy, he'll make it

The Answer My Friend wrote:

Ritz. Men's marathon field is actually weak. If Ritz can be healthy, he'll make it

i wouldn't say the men's marathon field is "weak," but he has a legit shot at repeating. Meb and Hall are going to be top challengers, and I honestly think Nick Arciniaga can crack the top 3 at the trials.

predictions for marathon:

Ritz, Meb, Arciniaga.

Webb: good shot at 5k or 10k. He can get into shape quickly and can race well when it counts. It won't be easy, of course, but he's got a good shot at it.

Ritz has a better shot at the marathon than Webb does in any event though.

both have a great shot if they can pull their heads out of where ever they have them stuck at the moment.

Webb will definitely make the team...if they make pie eating an Olympic sport!

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Definitely Ritz. I’m guessing that Ritz will be going after the marathon once he’s healthy, but besides Ryan Hall, what other runners could threaten Ritz’s chance? Plus, if Ritz could have a season like he did in 2009, then who knows; he could be a contender to make the worlds team for either the 5k or 10k (just saying as a possibility, but again I’m guessing that he’ll stick with the marathon).

As for Webb, he’s got an uphill battle. Ever since 2007, he’s not been the same and has had minimum success up till now. Now that he’s being coached by Vig and possibly training with Andrews(?) who knows what he can do or if he does anything, but with how deep the 800m (Symmonds, Andrews, Jock, Mulder, Primm, etc) and 1500m (Wheating, Brown, Manzano, Lomong, Leer, Centro, etc) has gotten in the US it’ll be twice as hard for him making the Olympic team than what Ritz would have to deal with.

I just don't see Webb making it, and certainly not by moving up to the 5000 or 10,000. Maybe he could try the steeple

When Webb pulled out a 3:37 in early March finishing between Kiprop and Willis, it seemed like he might be well on his way back. But since then - nothing. I think Leer was 3:41 in that race, and he's at 3:36 now, and Kiprop and Willis are now at 3:31. So, it seems plausible that Webb could have been at 3:31 - 3:32 now (had he stayed the course in Portland) when the fastest Americans are at 3:33 (Lagat, Lomong, Manzano).

So, I'll say Webb still has a more-than-respectable chance of making the '12 team at 1500, especially since he's back in VA with an excellent mid-d coach at the helm.

But I think Ritz has an even better chance, given the relative weakness of US marathoning vs. US miling.

Ritz. He has two chances.

irunthesestreets wrote:

Ritz. He has two chances.

Good point; I kind of hope he misses out with the marathon so he'll try for the 10,000m

It is impossible to predict how Webb will do. He could either succeed brilliantly or flop.

MIcky LM wrote:

It is impossible to predict how Webb will do. He could either succeed brilliantly or flop.

Nice! So you predict he will either succeed brilliantly or flop!

Ritz.

Rumor has it that they're adding Propecia to the banned supplement list. Webb's career is officially over.

Ritz will definitely make the team. It's very unlikely Webb makes the 1500 team. It's too deep. He is training under Vig who will get his speed and mental toughness back up though. So there's definitely a chance. However, Lomong, Manzano, Wheating are all low 3:30 guys. Centro has shown how good he can be. Then you have guys like Torrence and Leer who have consistently been training at a very high level for a while now. It's going to be insanely amazing if Webb makes the team. But then again.... Manzano is inconsistent, Lomong is beatable, Wheating is beatable, and Centro isn't that strong. So there's actually a chance.

When was the last time Webb even broke 3:35 for the 1500? Webb has already thrown away the last couple of years. At 28 Spivey and Scott were tearing up the track.

Webb's career is following the same path as Holman and Falcons. Actually, Falcon faded faster than any American sub 3:50 miler. I vaguely remember, Falcon tripping in consecutive races towards the end of his career.

Maybe at his point Webb should just run races and forget about running under 3:35 every time. These large gaps Webb has in his racing schedule are really unprecedented for a 3:46 miler. I wager in his prime Steve Scott ran more races in one year than Webb has in the last three. You almost never see Webb running in major international races anymore.

Lamong is not as talented as Webb, but is more consistent. With Lamong you at least know what you are getting. Here you have a solid 3:51 miler, who will probably finish in the top ten in either an Olympic or WC final. There is no flash of genius here, but just good old-fashion-workman like consistency. With Webb it is a crap-shoot. He could run either 3:44 or 3:30. You just don't know. That is why you can't completely write-off Webb. He is running under a different set of rules.

A more foolish prediction I have yet to see.

outlaw wrote:

predictions for marathon:

Ritz, Meb, Arciniaga.

I would definitely say Ritz mainly becuase I know his heart is in it. Also, becuase he has an opportunity in 3 events and is probably capable of making it in anyone of the 3. So far only Rupp and Solinski has shown to be at his level in the 5K and 10K and he would only have Hall to deal with in the Marathon.

Ritz only has 3 people to deal with, while Webb would have about a half dozen (Lagat, Manzano, Lomong, Centro, Wheating [Leer, Torrence, Brown, Miller, Andrews,Fernandez]).

Recall that Webb has the winning record over Ritz at 10k. Webb could do whatever event he wants to.... He just needs to do it!