Flanagan 4:06.63

Yeah... there was no focus on Shalane at all. Certainly she was not expected to be in contention at this distance, but I agree that it was a great run for her and indicative that her speed has returned after marathon training. She is in a great position right now.

Let's be realistic Shalane will need to step it alot more then all of her performances this year to be a medalist contender at Worlds. She was easily beaten in a sprint finish by Sally Kipyego who was in turn dispatched by Vivian Cheriuyot at Kenyans 10000m. That's two women who have to be favored ahead of Shalane along with add Meseret and Tirunesh. This year the women's 10000m will be much harder to win a medal then when Shalane last captured her 10000m bronze medal.

She was right up there with Rowbury and co.. A very pleasant surprise, considering that her 1500 was the one area of question since changing teams. 4:06 and second in her NYCM debut in less than nine months is a massive range.

And she was running 4:11-12 at the time. That's why I think this time is significant. Also, as evidenced by the Olympic 10000, she has proven to be an excellent hot weather runner.

HorseIt wrote:

Let's be realistic Shalane will need to step it alot more then all of her performances this year to be a medalist contender at Worlds. She was easily beaten in a sprint finish by Sally Kipyego who was in turn dispatched by Vivian Cheriuyot at Kenyans 10000m. That's two women who have to be favored ahead of Shalane along with add Meseret and Tirunesh. This year the women's 10000m will be much harder to win a medal then when Shalane last captured her 10000m bronze medal.

i dunno about sub 30 shape, maybe 30:30. not like it will matter anyway in a tactical race like it usually is in worlds.

[quote]Montesquieu wrote:

And she was running 4:11-12 at the time. That's why I think this time is significant. Also, as evidenced by the Olympic 10000, she has proven to be an excellent hot weather runner.[quote]HorseIt wrote:

A couple of things. First, it's ludicrous to suggest sub 30 shape. That's a 30 second pb. To even hint at that type of potential, she'd have to pr by a few seconds in the 1500, and drop her 5k pr significantly. Zero chance of even a 30:10.

Having said that, she is having a stellar season. Looks like she has re-adjusted to Jerry's training, and I think that her newfound focus on speed will translate very nicely into her next marathon effort. Watch for big things at the Trials (assuming she doesn't just sit and kick, which she will probably do).

In terms of competing at Worlds, I'm not sure what else she can do to prepare... the top African women are just on another level right now. 4:06, 14:45, and a coupe of sub 31s in the same season is absolutely studly.

I wish Shalane the best, but if I had to make a prediction about the 10,000 at Worlds, I'd say 5th

Her PR is 30:22, run at Beijing, three years ago before any sustained aerobic training. The temp that night was 77, with 59% humidity--surely not ideal. She is now just as fast as she was then over 1500. I don't think it's ludicrous to say that she can run a second better per lap in ideal conditions.

[quote]Montesquieu wrote:

Her PR is 30:22, run at Beijing, three years ago before any sustained aerobic training. The temp that night was 77, with 59% humidity--surely not ideal. She is now just as fast as she was then over 1500. I don't think it's ludicrous to say that she can run a second better per lap in ideal conditions.[quote]

Fair enough. Disagree about trying to write off any "sustained aerobic training" as a detriment to her bronze- even when she was training for the marathon this fall, she was still training like a track runner (compare to Paula when she was dropping big 10k and 5k PRs after marathon training). Totally agree about the beijing conditions- they were muggy. But it's tough to make the 'ideal conditions' arguments... I will grant you that she does seem to be in comparable fitness (certainly over 5k and 1500) as she was leading up to the Olympics. And in hindsight, you might just be right- perhaps she is closer to 30 flat than it would first appear based off of her two 10ks to date. Still going to be tough to medal though. Heck, given the two, I'd rather see her go sub 30.

p.s.- to really have a shot at sub 30, I think she needs to pop a 14:35 or so first. Again though, quietly have a great year.

Rockefella wrote:

She was right up there with Rowbury and co.. A very pleasant surprise, considering that her 1500 was the one area of question since changing teams. 4:06 and second in her NYCM debut in less than nine months is a massive range.

She was really back there with Rowbury and co. as opposed to "up there".

If she ran sub 30 while her best 5k was still 14:44, I'd be surprised.

Other than Wang Junxia, what's the slowest 5k time for a sub 30 10k woman anyway? Or a sub 30:10 woman for that matter?

That 4:06.63 is good, but perhaps more relevant to the speed that she and her coach think might be needed in the last few laps in championship race, than an indicator of sub 30.

long sox wrote:

If she ran sub 30 while her best 5k was still 14:44, I'd be surprised.

Other than Wang Junxia, what's the slowest 5k time for a sub 30 10k woman anyway? Or a sub 30:10 woman for that matter?

That 4:06.63 is good, but perhaps more relevant to the speed that she and her coach think might be needed in the last few laps in championship race, than an indicator of sub 30.

Wang Junxia has the slowest, but excluding her, the slowest 5k PR for a woman under 30:10 is Sun Yingjie 14:40/30:07. Florence Kiplagat is similar at 14:40/30:11. However most women ahead of Shalane's 30:22 ran low 14:30s or faster.

itll be very hard for her to medal. both meseret defar and vivian and running the 10k.

I too am not a big fan of ideal conditions arguments. My point was that when she did run 30:22, it wasn't in Stanford-like weather--that is, I was trying to forestall the "but what if she ran in less than ideal conditions" arguments. About her medal chances in Daegu, we should remember two things: first, she did come in third at World Cross this year, which is a great achievement; second, she always seems to rise to the occasion (Olympic Trials, World Cross, Olympics).

her 1500/5k this year :

4;06.63 / 13'45.20 ->30'43.1

but she's already gone 30'39 this year, so above were far from her ability

going back to those 1500/5k, more reasonable limits for her with perfect pacing, wouda been more like

4'05.0 - 4'05.5 / 14'40.0 - 14'42.5 :

4'05.0 / 14'42.5 ->30'40.8

4'05.0 / 14'40.0 ->30'33.0

4'05.5 / 14'42.5 ->30'38.8

4'05.5 / 14'40.0 ->30'31.1

not really getting better than ~ 30'30

as pointed out, that 5k of 14'44/14'45 is a huge handicap

if someone can argue for her to be running nearer 14'35 currently, that woud still only get her :

4'05.0 - 4'05.5 / 14'35.0 ->30'15.3 - 30'17.2

or ~ her peking shape

i think you gotta stick with 30'30...

It's hard to predict what Shalane will run based on what she has run this year. Her 14:44 run was actually in 2007 at Mt. SAC more than a year before her 30:22 at Beijing. In 2008 her fastest 5000 was 14:59 in the prelims at Beijing. So her 14:45 this year is good news as her fastest 5k since her 14:44 was a 14:47 indoor run in 2009. I wouldn't read too much into the 4:06 in monaco either as she ran 4:06 in 2009 and 2010, although having run a marathon 9 months ago makes it a bit more impressive.

What we do know is that Shalane is clearly capable of sub 30:40 this year, and I assume she wasn't peaking for that performance, so if it's a fast race like Beijing was her going under 30:30 wouldn't be surprising, even matching her PB of 30:22 wouldn't be much of a shock. If she went under 30:15 that would be a bit of surprise, and this year it might take a time faster than that to medal.

The world's will likely be run in 31-low so having 4:06 speed going into world's has got to give her lots of confidence. But she has to be right in there with 400m to go to have any chance.

a 4:06 1500m is good for a 4:24 1600.

I'd say with her being distance oriented, she could hit 14:35 if she could gut it out. (she kind of ran like a big baby in that recent 14:44).

14:35 is good for around 30:10, but I don't think she's capable of sub 30:00.