Let's be realistic Shalane will need to step it alot more then all of her performances this year to be a medalist contender at Worlds. She was easily beaten in a sprint finish by Sally Kipyego who was in turn dispatched by Vivian Cheriuyot at Kenyans 10000m. That's two women who have to be favored ahead of Shalane along with add Meseret and Tirunesh. This year the women's 10000m will be much harder to win a medal then when Shalane last captured her 10000m bronze medal.
Francis El wrote:
And she was running 4:11-12 at the time. That's why I think this time is significant. Also, as evidenced by the Olympic 10000, she has proven to be an excellent hot weather runner.[quote]HorseIt wrote:
A couple of things. First, it's ludicrous to suggest sub 30 shape. That's a 30 second pb. To even hint at that type of potential, she'd have to pr by a few seconds in the 1500, and drop her 5k pr significantly. Zero chance of even a 30:10.
Having said that, she is having a stellar season. Looks like she has re-adjusted to Jerry's training, and I think that her newfound focus on speed will translate very nicely into her next marathon effort. Watch for big things at the Trials (assuming she doesn't just sit and kick, which she will probably do).
In terms of competing at Worlds, I'm not sure what else she can do to prepare... the top African women are just on another level right now. 4:06, 14:45, and a coupe of sub 31s in the same season is absolutely studly.
She was really back there with Rowbury and co. as opposed to "up there".
She was right up there with Rowbury and co.. A very pleasant surprise, considering that her 1500 was the one area of question since changing teams. 4:06 and second in her NYCM debut in less than nine months is a massive range.
Wang Junxia has the slowest, but excluding her, the slowest 5k PR for a woman under 30:10 is Sun Yingjie 14:40/30:07. Florence Kiplagat is similar at 14:40/30:11. However most women ahead of Shalane's 30:22 ran low 14:30s or faster.
long sox wrote:
If she ran sub 30 while her best 5k was still 14:44, I'd be surprised.
Other than Wang Junxia, what's the slowest 5k time for a sub 30 10k woman anyway? Or a sub 30:10 woman for that matter?
That 4:06.63 is good, but perhaps more relevant to the speed that she and her coach think might be needed in the last few laps in championship race, than an indicator of sub 30.
Francis El wrote:
Her PR is 30:22, run at Beijing, three years ago before any sustained aerobic training. The temp that night was 77, with 59% humidity--surely not ideal. She is now just as fast as she was then over 1500. I don't think it's ludicrous to say that she can run a second better per lap in ideal conditions.[quote]
Fair enough. Disagree about trying to write off any "sustained aerobic training" as a detriment to her bronze- even when she was training for the marathon this fall, she was still training like a track runner (compare to Paula when she was dropping big 10k and 5k PRs after marathon training). Totally agree about the beijing conditions- they were muggy. But it's tough to make the 'ideal conditions' arguments... I will grant you that she does seem to be in comparable fitness (certainly over 5k and 1500) as she was leading up to the Olympics. And in hindsight, you might just be right- perhaps she is closer to 30 flat than it would first appear based off of her two 10ks to date. Still going to be tough to medal though. Heck, given the two, I'd rather see her go sub 30.