It has come to my attention that not only did Gay and Bledman post questionable times in Clermont last year, but that all the fantastic times in the women's 100 were wind-aided, with a +2.9 wind now listed (Ahoure 10.86, Salomon 10.90, Harrigan 10.97).
Those times were all .10-.15 better than those runners run under legal conditions.
Similarly, Bledman's 9.93 (1.0) is about .10 better than his best before or since.
Same with Ashmeade and his alleged 9.96 (1.0)
I'm not going to go through an exhaustive analysis like I did for the Eugene .13 advantage, but I will roughly conclude that there is a .10 Clermont advantage.
That said, Gay's 9.79 should really have been around a 9.90, which is more plausible for a nothing race very early in the year, from an allegedly injured Gay.
Having said that, it has been 1.5 years since Gay has run a time that would put him in serious contention for a medal in the 100m in London. That's a LONG time! If he really did need that surgery, he should have had it earlier, like at the end of the 2010 outdoor season.
Gay is dedicated, for sure--but at some point one has to wonder if he retains the muscle memory required to run the kinds of stratospheric times he will need to succeed in the 100m in 2012.
9.7x is that "other level". 9.7x guys are qualitatively different than 9.8x guys--you know one when you see one (Blake is one, although he's only gone 9.82 with no wind).
If you thought US sprinting was weak before, what about now, with the top 2 guys, as far as anybody knows, out? (Gay and Rodgers) What is the US left with? Dix and Gatlin!
If Jamaica lost Bolt and Powell, they would still have Blake, effectively a 200m WR-holder! If they lost Bolt and Blake, they would still have Powell, a multiple 100m WR-holder. If they lost Powell and Blake, they would still have Bolt, the GOAT. Not to mention Carter, Frater, and others.
Hopefully the USA will have guys like Salaam and Demps stepping up to fill the possible void, or maybe Gatlin will benefit from the improved competitive opportunities that will come his way, and improve significantly.
At this point, I think that Gay has something to prove to everyone. He's not a factor, until he proves otherwise.
Any word from his camp?
Oh, and if Adidas wants to regain the upper hand, they will have to raise their .10 advantage to .15, to beat out the Eugene .13--at the very least they will have to up it to .13, to stay competitive.
Look for some laughable times to come out of Clermont this spring...but Eugene is 3 hours behind, and has the advantage of seeing what happens in Clermont, right? Look for even better times from Eugene, regardless of the weather.