I Landed in Portland, am Headed to Eugene and I Think Solinsky Will Beat Rupp

wejo wrote:

Rupp has upped his game in the longer distances. I'm a huge believer in strength over speed but in this case I'm still taking Solinsky...

From everything I've read or heard Solinsky does appreciably more weekly miles than Rupp and has been for sometime, so even if Rupp has "upped his game in the longer distances" I don't think he's as strong as Solinsky.

I think Solinsky will take more scalps than just Rupp, the guy is tough and has learned a lot about racing against the International elites in the last year. I'm saying Solinsky is top three.

What if.....Solinsky shocks the world and runs 13:20, 13:20 for 26:40 and takes it right to the E. Africans? If anyone can do it Solinsky can. I see 26:50 or better for him and agree with the previous poster about him easily being in the mix for top 3.

betterbutter wrote:

What if.....Solinsky shocks the world and runs 13:20, 13:20 for 26:40 and takes it right to the E. Africans? If anyone can do it Solinsky can. I see 26:50 or better for him and agree with the previous poster about him easily being in the mix for top 3.

Imagine for a moment that you are French. Or Australian. Or Moroccan. Do you think that, looking at the start list, you would pick Solinsky for top 3?

26:40 will not shock "the World".

If Solinksi finishes top 3 and sub 27 that would be impressive for an American.

If Rupp PRs and doesn't go sub 27 that would also be impressive.

The race should be great. Hopefully, the race won't be a tactical one with an 14 flat opening 5k.

Its gonna be AWESOME!

I'll say (and this is being conservative) that Solinsky is hanging right in there with the big dogs with 2 laps to go. The question for me is how will he respond with 300m-400m left in the race? Do the wheels come off at 400m to go or is he kicking with them the whole way?

I think he'll beat Rupp because hes a grown M-A-N.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPNec5xAASg

Imagine all the people wrote:

[quote]betterbutter wrote:

Imagine for a moment that you are French. Or Australian. Or Moroccan. Do you think that, looking at the start list, you would pick Solinsky for top 3?

Yes, because I think 26:48-26:52 will be good enough for third and I think Solinsky can run that.

Better yet: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5IOou6qN1o

Solinksy's advantage is he has confidence, running sub 27 last year. Even of he doesn't run 26:50 I think he will take it out at that type of pace.

Chris seems to be unconcerned about running over his limits, something a runner needs to set impressive PRs.

Weldon, don't expect too much. A few things about Eugene that you have to learn going in.

This time of year the weather can be iffy. The Willamette Valley is on of the biggest producers of grass seed in the world and it is right now that the grass is blooming. The prevailing winds come from the NW, Eugene sits at the very south end of the Valley, so the pollen gets blown to and concentrated in Eugene.

While it has been wet in Eugene this week, keeping the pollen levels down, if the Sun pops out there will be a burst of fresh pollen in the air, which is not good for Rupp (and others).

When it's sunny in Eugene, that usually means a steady wind coming form the Northwest. What happens is that wind tends to settle in the evening, usually at about 6-7 pm. Usually is the operative word here. If everything goes to plan then you could see a perfectly calm evening, perfect for running (except for the pollen), and some very fast distance times.

Fevahpfl wrote:

Imagine all the people wrote:

[quote]betterbutter wrote:

Imagine for a moment that you are French. Or Australian. Or Moroccan. Do you think that, looking at the start list, you would pick Solinsky for top 3?

Yes, because I think 26:48-26:52 will be good enough for third and I think Solinsky can run that.

No. You wouldn't.

Sorry, but you wouldn't look at the start list and pick out Solinsky. What would the logic be? He's the third fastest PR?

No. You would look at the list of East Africans and realize that there are 5 with PRs 10 - 29 seconds faster. Then you would think that half of the others are WAY better than their current PR just because they've been focusing on running the roads. So you would conclude that Solinsky might place around 10 - 12. Except that you wouldn't even notice him because everyone loses track after they've identified the top 3 - 5 contenders.

So, no, you wouldn't.

I would agree that this is probably Solinky's race to lose vs Rupp. But there is a distinct possibility he will do just that. I think Rupp has shown more discipline in his races over the years from what I've seen and generally stays within himself very well.

But yeah. Solinsky was obviously at a high level last year. And from what I glean from the news, all he has done is stay healthy and continued to do high volume, high quality workouts. He has to be favored over Rupp.

Maybe I didn't get the memo, but will we be able to watch the men's 25k/30k? I understand the women's 5k is getting blacked out. I have the link for the men's 10k, should I just go to the link when the 25k/30k starts?

P.S. What time is the 25k/30k again?

Rupp's half showed he has at least comparable strength to Solinsky, probably more. Still, he's maybe 8 weeks off a break and gunning for late summer.

Does anyone know how fast the pacers are going? If they go 13:20, Solinsky will fall off at 7-8k for about 27:10. Rupp can't run that pace at all (in a 10k) and would die. If they go 13:35-13:40, both guys should manage 27:0x.

wejo,

Thanks for the coverage.

Imagine all the people wrote:

betterbutter wrote:

What if.....Solinsky shocks the world and runs 13:20, 13:20 for 26:40 and takes it right to the E. Africans? If anyone can do it Solinsky can. I see 26:50 or better for him and agree with the previous poster about him easily being in the mix for top 3.

Imagine for a moment that you are French. Or Australian. Or Moroccan. Do you think that, looking at the start list, you would pick Solinsky for top 3?

Please re-read the post you are quoting.

He did say that Solinksy would be in the mix for the top 3. That does not mean he will be top 3. I think many French/Australians/etc. (though not all) would think Solinsky can be in the mix for third.

Normally I would favor Rupp in tonight's race. The problem is that the pollen count in Eugene jumped just his afternoon. Being aware of Rupp's sensitivity to pollen, and having dealt with that issue myself, I wouldn't be surprised to see Alberto pull Galen if the count continues to climb today. Alberto is an extremely experienced and aware coach so if the facts (pollen) so dictate, I doubt he'd be stupid enough to risk the USATF championships later this month.

Kanye North wrote:

Imagine all the people wrote:

Imagine for a moment that you are French. Or Australian. Or Moroccan. Do you think that, looking at the start list, you would pick Solinsky for top 3?

Please re-read the post you are quoting.

He did say that Solinksy would be in the mix for the top 3. That does not mean he will be top 3. I think many French/Australians/etc. (though not all) would think Solinsky can be in the mix for third.

Please do a bit of back reading yourself, my dear friend. betterbutter was explicitly agreeing with the post above his which read:

"...I think Solinsky will take more scalps than just Rupp, the guy is tough and has learned a lot about racing against the International elites in the last year. I'm saying Solinsky is top three."

"Perhaps Rojo purposely waited until I was on a plane all day to post them so I couldn't argue with him."

Being that you're both from Texas, these would be considered fighting words. I would suggest a wager - and the terms should include a forced wearing of a LeBron James jersey...