Coach Canova any thoughts about tonight's Pre 10k & 30k??

I'm in Eugene for two main reasons : the attempt of Mosop against the WR of 30km, and the 10000m where I have Imane Merga and Thomas Longosiwa (he has to pace the first 5 km in 13'18"). Of course, I'm also interested in the real Prefontaine (Soi in 2 miles, Silas Kiplagat in one mile and something new with Ethiopians that I need to know better), but the first day is the most important.

In the 30 km the goal for Moses Mosop is to follow a schedule for 29'22" (10 km), 58'49" (20 km) and a final time about 1:28'40" (the WR is 1:29:18). My goal is to have Abel Kirui in front at 25 km under the WR (1:13'55"), looking for a time under 1 :13'40".

Till last week, I didn't have any problem about Abel, but now I'm a little bit worry because last Friday he had in Kenya a session with the bike for increasing the frequency (using a very short gear) barefoot, and at the end his feet were burned and he lost part of the skin. Yesterday he was able running 40' easy in Portland after going to a doctor giving him a specific ointment and the "second skin", but the competition is something else.

For this attempt there is a pacer that probably can't arrive till 15 km, so the guys have to go alone. In any case, Moses has to stay behind Abel and only if the pace becomes too slow for the record of 25 km can go before that distance.

About 10000m, the most important competition for the most part of people, I think it will be a very fast race. After the first 5 km, I think Tadesse can start to push, and not many people can try to stay with him. Based on my opinion, Tadesse is the favourite (but nothing to do with a WR, he can run near 26'30" but 26'17" is out of discussion), we can see a battle between Imane Merga and Sileshi Sihine for the best Ethiopian (honestly, I think they can run between 26'40" and 26'50"), and the American can run under 27'. In any case, I suppose 13'18" a little fast for Rupp and Solinski, they could have more opportunity of a good time with a split of 13'25" after 5 km : but, in this occasion, they have to try to stay, also for clearly understanding their current possibilities.

Same situation about Mo Farah.

But, about 10000m, many times we create mental limits that become THE limiting factor. When in 2003 Nicholas Kemboi moved directly to 26'30"03 from a PB of 28'19" (because never rfan before another 10000m) he had a PB in 5000m of 13'01" in Zurich, so the index of specific endurance was 28" only (13'01" x 2 = 26'02"). Of course, his real value in 5000m the same day of his 10000m could be about 12'55", that in any case means 40" more than the double of the PB in 5000m. If Mo and Solinski, arguable under 13' at the moment, are able to respect that index (depending on their SPECIFIC preparation for the distance), I'm not surprise if can run under 26'50".

I go to comment these distances this night, after the races.

Renato,

Thank you for your thoughts.

I look forward to reading your post race wrap ups.

Renato Canova wrote:

But, about 10000m, many times we create mental limits that become THE limiting factor. When in 2003 Nicholas Kemboi moved directly to 26'30"03 from a PB of 28'19" (because never rfan before another 10000m) he had a PB in 5000m of 13'01" in Zurich, so the index of specific endurance was 28" only (13'01" x 2 = 26'02"). Of course, his real value in 5000m the same day of his 10000m could be about 12'55", that in any case means 40" more than the double of the PB in 5000m. If Mo and Solinski, arguable under 13' at the moment, are able to respect that index (depending on their SPECIFIC preparation for the distance), I'm not surprise if can run under 26'50".

I go to comment these distances this night, after the races.

As Always thanks for your insight. You are so right about the mental barriers with specific distances, Solinski hasn't even scratched the surface in the 10000m. I think 26:50 is a great prediction if he is in the same shape and mental state as last years 26:59. I really hope he just goes with the pace, and accepts it will hurt a lot. If so, I think we are in for a special night from him

Renato,

Abel kirui is a world Champion.Why has his form for the last 2 yrs been wanting?

Why is Mosop attempting a 30K wprld record only a few weeks after boston marathon.has he had sufficient rest from boston.Why does he have to do this now.It seems too soon to me.Surely he could have just concentrated on attacking the world record at berlin.

Coach Canova, why do I see the 30km being run in a positive split fashion (each 10km being a bit slower than the one before it)? Why is this the "plan"? Is there another athlete that you would have liked to see in the 10km ffield that could not make it or was not invited by Nike that is very ready for a fast time? All the best, thanks.

Renato Canova wrote:

Of course, I'm also interested in the real Prefontaine (Soi in 2 miles, Silas Kiplagat in one mile and something new with Ethiopians that I need to know better), but the first day is the most important.

Renato, when you refer to "something new with the Ethiopians" are you referring to an athlete (perhaps a play on words regarding Yenew) or strategies or both? I do think your athlete Merga is the one to beat tonight, as it would be difficult to drop him (this could happen) and extremely difficult to outkick him...

don't underestimate Komon. With his 26.44 road win last year he is ready to go sub 26.20.

fff wrote:

don't underestimate Komon. With his 26.44 road win last year he is ready to go sub 26.20.

Open your eyes man! That 10k course had the first half slightly uphill and the next half slightly downhill. If anything, race was worth over 26:44 not under.

huh? it is a very flat loop with some serious turns, I've been there!!!!!

Renato Canova wrote:

But, about 10000m, many times we create mental limits that become THE limiting factor. When in 2003 Nicholas Kemboi moved directly to 26'30"03 from a PB of 28'19" (because never rfan before another 10000m) he had a PB in 5000m of 13'01" in Zurich, so the index of specific endurance was 28" only (13'01" x 2 = 26'02"). Of course, his real value in 5000m the same day of his 10000m could be about 12'55", that in any case means 40" more than the double of the PB in 5000m.

How is Nicholas Kemboi doing these days? I see he is entered in the B mile at Pre. Are you planning for him to run the 10000m again?

J.R. wrote:

Renato Canova wrote:

But, about 10000m, many times we create mental limits that become THE limiting factor. When in 2003 Nicholas Kemboi moved directly to 26'30"03 from a PB of 28'19" (because never rfan before another 10000m) he had a PB in 5000m of 13'01" in Zurich, so the index of specific endurance was 28" only (13'01" x 2 = 26'02"). Of course, his real value in 5000m the same day of his 10000m could be about 12'55", that in any case means 40" more than the double of the PB in 5000m.

How is Nicholas Kemboi doing these days? I see he is entered in the B mile at Pre. Are you planning for him to run the 10000m again?

This is not the same guy...

Thanks for taking the time to give us your unique insight. We can read between the lines how dedicated someone like Abel Kirui is in training, to get burnt feet from cycling takes a lot of determination. Fascinating, but I hope he is well.

I am slightly puzzled by your statement that the pace maker cannot be there before the 15k. Would the records be eligible if they benefit from fresh pace makers?

The 25k record seems relatively weak in comparison to the 30k record (3:57.4 pace vs 3:58.6 pace). In fact, the pace you have for Mosop (1:28:40, or 3:57.3 pace) would let him take the 25k record en route; with the positive split, I would estimate about 1:13:50 for Mosop at 25k. Could this not jeopardize Kirui's chances?

Querfeldein wrote:

The 25k record seems relatively weak in comparison to the 30k record (3:57.4 pace vs 3:58.6 pace). In fact, the pace you have for Mosop (1:28:40, or 3:57.3 pace) [...]

Sorry, the numbers should of course be 2:57.4, 2:58.6 and 2:57.3, respectively. You can tell I'm just a hobby jogger, to my ears sub 3 minute pace just sounds crazy :)

Querfeldein wrote:

The 25k record seems relatively weak in comparison to the 30k record

Yes, as the 25k record is a split from the 30k record...

Renato Canova wrote:When in 2003 Nicholas Kemboi moved directly to 26'30"03 from a PB of 28'19" (because never rfan before another 10000m) he had a PB in 5000m of 13'01" in Zurich, so the index of specific endurance was 28" only (13'01" x 2 = 26'02"). Of course, his real value in 5000m the same day of his 10000m could be about 12'55", that in any case means 40" more than the double of the PB in 5000m

you don't seem to know the guy's capabilities & you are his coach !!!

you can't run 26'30 off only 12'55 intrinsic ability

a more likely line of fit for kemboi that day is :

52.20 / 1'50.8 -> 3'35.3 , 7'27.0 , 12'45.3 , 26'25.5

i assume that 12'55 is a typo

fff wrote:

huh? it is a very flat loop with some serious turns, I've been there!!!!!

Either way, Komon runs tangents very, very well(perfectly, infact)

ventolin^3 wrote:

you don't seem to know the guy's capabilities & you are his coach !!!

you can't run 26'30 off only 12'55 intrinsic ability

And you DO know the guy's capabilities because you've got a calculator. I think Kemboi probably could have run 12:50 that day, but to assume he had to have been capable of 12:45 is not necessarily true. What were his slits?

splits

You don't seem to be following Canova:

Querfeldein wrote:91) I am slightly puzzled by your statement that the pace maker cannot be there before the 15k. Would the records be eligible if they benefit from fresh pace makers?

(2) The 25k record seems relatively weak in comparison to the 30k record (3:57.4 pace vs 3:58.6 pace). In fact, the pace you have for Mosop (1:28:40, or 3:57.3 pace) would let him take the 25k record en route; with the positive split, I would estimate about 1:13:50 for Mosop at 25k. Could this not jeopardize Kirui's chances?

(1) He means the pacers can't that pace past 15k.

(2) The obvious intent is to have Kirui lead past 25k so he gets that record, then Mosop hangs on to gun for the 30k record. Of course Mosop COULD lead through 25k, but Canova said he won't take the lead unless they're off 25k record pace.

Hope that helps...