I have plenty of time to train for my first marathon. Having recently run a 1:10:20 half, do you think I can run sub 2:30? Some friends were telling me to be more "humble" with my goals and to perhaps set the bar a little slower, since it's my first marathon. I understand they're probably just trying to protect me from disappointing myself, but is it really that hard to go sub 2:30 if I train properly? I mean, I can run 2:30 pace and possibly blow up and drop out, or I can run a conservative 2:37 pace and increase my odds of finishing. Those are my basic choices here. But why all the warnings from people? Is the marathon really that big if a wildcard distance for a lot of otherwise decent runners?