Hole in one in golf -- 100% SKILL or is there always an element of luck?

You are correct here, Flagpole. Always a chance for a lousy golfer to get a fluke hole in one, but the odds of a pro getting one are much higher.

I am a pretty good golfer, have made one hole in one, and without question believe that there is always an element of luck. Even an elite tour pro that is able to dial in a wedge/short iron to within a yard +/- cannot account for enough of the variables in play in a single shot (wind, firmness of green, spin, break, etc.) to claim a hole in one as an event of pure skill. Consider further, there are tour pros who play nearly every day that have never recorded a hole in one in competition. Obviously the better the golfer the more likely they are to make a hole in one because they give themselves more chances to get close.

I'd say it is skill if you can card an ace on a par 4!

You can and should stop talking about luck in a 'serious' way but instead just use it as a cover term for a model based on probability. Every shot in a golf match involves probability, so in this sense luck is always involved (so, I think you're right about the basic premise). As skill increases the space (in a literal sense for golf) in which the probabilities come into play gets smaller.

This fits our intuitive sense that ANY golfer can get lucky with a hole in one, but we'd put our money on a skilled golfer. The big caveat here is that it is probably less likely that a pro golfer might play *not* to just 'hit the green' anywhere, but might be intentionally placing the ball such that a hole in one is less likely - i.e. a hole in one is great, but the chance that you hit the e.g. side of the green with big slope is too risky. For this reason it wouldn't surprise me if a less skilled golfer is in practice as likely to get the hole in one - i.e. they see the pin and shot for it, whereas the pro golfer is not. IF all else were equal, then of course the pro golfer is more likely.

The term luck in a traditional sense doesn't have a lot of meaning, but when discussing something like a hole in one I substitute chaos for luck and it makes a lot more sense.

Well I would say it's mainly skill but with an element of luck

Someone once placed a bet at long odds that one of the golfers at a major comp would get a hole in one, The bookies did not realise it happens quite regularly and had to pay out about a million

This will be a puzzler for you both. My dad played golf off 8 and got a hole in one twice on the same hole. So there is the skill element. Now for the luck part - the hole is unsighted

How is the CR-V going?

Your point is how I feel about it...mainly skill but with an element of luck.The CR-V is great. It's the best vehicle I've ever owned, way better than the minivan; I'm done with those. Just turned it over to 1,000 miles after 2 months, so I'm on track for only about 6,000 miles a year...unless I take it on some trips which I will do later this summer.

ukathleticscoach wrote:

Well I would say it's mainly skill but with an element of luck

Someone once placed a bet at long odds that one of the golfers at a major comp would get a hole in one, The bookies did not realise it happens quite regularly and had to pay out about a million

This will be a puzzler for you both. My dad played golf off 8 and got a hole in one twice on the same hole. So there is the skill element. Now for the luck part - the hole is unsighted

How is the CR-V going?

Nero wrote:

that depending one one's skill level will happen 1 out of x number of times.

Luck is that it happened on this particular 1 time.

Skill increases probability.

But at a low level of probability I would call it luck.

Shooting 40% from 3 point rage wouldn't indicate that any made shots are lucky.

If you make something 3 out 3000 times without any pattern or predictability of the made shots I would call it luck.

You need skill to be in position but luck to get it in.

Now if you hit it in off of a tree, that is dumb luck.

When I lived in TX and was dating my boyfriend ( husband now), I went to play golf with him (I think it was my only second or third time ever playing) and before I took lessons. I ALMOST made a hole in one (nearly missed it by inches) on a par 3 hole. Since then and after getting lessons I never came close but then again, I did not play that often like my husband who's been playing since college days and has never made a hole in one to this day.

I think the probability of getting one is hard and if some average or below average golfer gets one then it's a fluke. Sure, skill plays a part. I do think it's more impressive if a PRO player hits one since they have to tee off from longer t-box versus the standard t-box.

Even more impressive if the hole in one was from par 4 like someone mentioned.

I find it hard to believe any seasoned golfer would suggest a hole in one is 100% skill. Ask Tiger Woods to play a par 3 100 times and try to get a hole in one everytime. There is a good chance he wouldn't get an ace. A 10 handicap could play all his life and never do it. There is an enormous amount of luck involved, how much just depends on how good the player is.

Nero wrote:

What is luck? It is something that can't be proven to exist. So I would say that a hole in one is 100% skill, that depending one one's skill level will happen 1 out of x number of times. The higher the skill the higher the probability for a hole in one. For instance, take how many hole in one's Tiger Woods has had over his career (18 - just googeled it) and compare with your average weekender.

I would guess that Tiger Woods has played a lot more than 18x as many holes as the average weekender. Your argument is terrible.

What would you say about making a half court shot in basketball?

I topped a drive once on a steep downhill 350 yard par 4.

It bounced along for about 150 yards, then hit the far side of a grass bank, pitching it forward through the air with some sort of weird top spin.

It bounced forward a couple of times, then rolled about 50 yards down the fairway and between two big bunkers, on to the green and into the hole.

Eagle!

That was definitely 100% skill and helped me finish the round in under 110!!!

I mean double eagle, or albatross as its called in the UK. That shows how much I know about golf.

toomuch wrote:

Nero wrote:

What is luck? It is something that can't be proven to exist. So I would say that a hole in one is 100% skill, that depending one one's skill level will happen 1 out of x number of times. The higher the skill the higher the probability for a hole in one. For instance, take how many hole in one's Tiger Woods has had over his career (18 - just googeled it) and compare with your average weekender.

I would guess that Tiger Woods has played a lot more than 18x as many holes as the average weekender. Your argument is terrible.

Still 18 is only the number recorded from competitions. He probably has more hole-in-ones in practice. His amount of competition chances is probably pretty comparable to the amount of chances a weekend golfer does when he goes out and plays 18 holes.

Don't say he is still playing more golf though so his chances increase during the competitions. The competitions is the only sampling being examined and the fact that he would be better for playing more golf demonstrates acquired skill.

The answer is 100%...karma. An ace is a reward for all the self flagellation you go through in the game of golf.

My hole in one came immediately after carding a 10 on the previous par 4. I was so disgusted with myself; I trudged over to the next hole, took as little notice of the yardage and layout as I could, pulled out a 5 wood, slammed the ball and the tee into the ground and swung.

No practice swing, no alignment check, only anger and disillusionment in my heart.

The result was a wonderfully arching shot with just a hint of a draw that took one large bounce and into the cup 214 yards away.

The foursome ahead of us who just cleared the green starting whooping it up. My playing partners, who just minutes before witnessed my debacle on the previous hole, just stood there shaking their heads.

don't know about golf, but i bet it was 100% luck that you once beat scott fry!