If anyone ever runs this time, they will have run 5,000 at sub 4 mile pace the whole way.
Speaking of which, it's been a long time since anyone's gotten near 12:37 hasn't it?
If anyone ever runs this time, they will have run 5,000 at sub 4 mile pace the whole way.
Speaking of which, it's been a long time since anyone's gotten near 12:37 hasn't it?
the best answer:
Maybe, no one knows.
I bet that 17 year old who just ran 12:53 could do it.
Dopers will need to get a major lead on the testers.
That's only if they maintain a perfectly even pace, tho, right?
Seems unlikely. At least for anyone that would be human by today's standard (i.e. if we get into genetic engineering in the future some super-freaky genetically engineered runner wouldn't count).
I don't know about that. They thought they were approaching the limit at 12:55, then Geb dropped it 11 more seconds in one race, then continued 5 more later (CMIIW). Seems to me that with a large enough bell curve, you're bound to get someone on the very tip at some point.
Yes, I guarantee it. If no one breaks 12:25.6 before the end of humanity, I will provide a full refund.
elevator wrote:
I don't know about that. They thought they were approaching the limit at 12:55, then Geb dropped it 11 more seconds in one race, then continued 5 more later (CMIIW). Seems to me that with a large enough bell curve, you're bound to get someone on the very tip at some point.
And in 15 years since that race, only Geb himself (twice) and two other guys (Bekele twice and Komen once) have run faster. I just don't see anyone coming through 3000 meters in 7:28 and keeping going.
Well, there is probably an asymptotic limit, so it's not completely a silly question.
seems you have some brains & not schmuck trolling, so worth entertaining
i tried a rough stats method :
10y ago, top 10-all time performances had mean of 12'45.295 with population sd of 3.803053
with 90% equivalent z score of 1.282, the "hypothetical" wr of that population ( i.e. 10% of top 10 runs = 1st run on list ) was
12'40.38
doing same for now :
mean = 12'42.644, pop sd = 3.2012
with 1.282 z score -> current wr of
12'38.54
therefore an improvement in 10y of hypothetical wr of 1.84 or 0.184s/y
to get to 12'25.6 at this rate will take (12'38.54 -12'25.6) /0.184 =
~ 70y
well you did ask a trollisimo question !
There's trolls with brains you know. They come in all varieties.
Honestly, it's just that the 5,000 isn't talked about much so I thought I'd bring it up.
Given that in order to set a record, a runner has to start standing still, it's actually impossible for that runner to be running "sub 4 pace the whole time," no matter how fast the final time. Even disregarding the initial acceleration, averaging sub 4 pace for 5k does not mean that one has run been running sub 4 pace the entire time.
TIm Tebro wrote:
Given that in order to set a record, a runner has to start standing still, it's actually impossible for that runner to be running "sub 4 pace the whole time," no matter how fast the final time. Even disregarding the initial acceleration, averaging sub 4 pace for 5k does not mean that one has run been running sub 4 pace the entire time.
Gee, I bet no one ever thought of that!
Just pointing out why your OP didn't make sense.
elevator wrote:
If anyone ever runs this time, they will have run 5,000 at sub 4 mile pace the whole way.
Speaking of which, it's been a long time since anyone's gotten near 12:37 hasn't it?
Do the names Koech and Alamirew mean anything to you?
Give them a couple of years.
12:37 will never fall, just like 19:32 will stand for a couple of generations. Not.
See, that's what I was looking to get out of this thread!
No I had not heard of them before now, but after looking them up that is indeed very interesting. Can't believe I haven't seen more on them.
coach d wrote:
elevator wrote:If anyone ever runs this time, they will have run 5,000 at sub 4 mile pace the whole way.
Speaking of which, it's been a long time since anyone's gotten near 12:37 hasn't it?
Do the names Koech and Alamirew mean anything to you?
Give them a couple of years.
12:37 will never fall, just like 19:32 will stand for a couple of generations. Not.
The name Eliud Kipchoge meant something to me 8 years ago (still does, the man's a monster). Still waiting for him to drop that 12:35.
Some 12 year old Kenyan will do it.
Kipchoge isn't going to break the World Record, he's well into his 30s now. Past his peak at that event.
trollism wrote:
Some 12 year old Kenyan will do it.
Kipchoge isn't going to break the World Record, he's well into his 30s now. Past his peak at that event.
He's 26. One year younger than Alan Webb.