OK, instead of everyone reeling off whom they believe will be the top 5 teams at Nationals, how about a more difficult question that can really test your knowledge and predicting skills.
What team will surprise the most people and either drastically improve or collapse at the district meets and/or nationals?
Personally, I think the main factors to look at for this question are teams injury situations and also their historical peaking ability.
A few possible surprises -
1. I have no inside informant, but with a crowded Mountain region with 6 teams expected to qualify (CU, NAU, Weber, BYU, MSU, CSU), I think the Lobos of New Mexico could sneak in if their lineup returns to full health. Ortega sat out PreNats and could give them the necessary lift. A team I've mentioned from the start, the Lobos looked hot early at the speedy Stanford meet but then hit a rough stretch. If they beat any of those top 6 teams, they could get pushed into the meet. The same chance is there for Utah State if they have an on day. It's not unreasonable to think that 1 of those 6 will have an off day.
2. Again, in the GL district, with an amazing number of teams with points enough to make the dance, it would not be surprising to see a team get pushed in if one of the expected stumbles at all. Miami of Ohio and Notre Dame would be the top two contenders on this list. If Mobley bounces back from his setback or if Padgett and crew all race well, either team may take advantage of a little luck.
3. Not surprising, but at least one of the following week auto "favorites" will likely fall (in order of likeliness), causing all point-analysis up to date to be useless: Oklahoma State (to Iowa), Belmont (to UF, UT or FSU), Texas (to SMU or A&M). In all cases, if the favorite falls, they?ll be at season?s end. Iowa can still get in if they are 3rd.
4. NAU will perform sub-par. Historically this team peaks at the right time, however, they seemed to be too hot too early, at least Nurani. Laird and Ahnstrom have not quite shown their ability to be 10th and 25th like last year. All this coupled with Ahnstrom?s absence at their conference meet and I think NAU could ?stumble? to a mere 7th place or so behind a potential group of (not in order): Stanford, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Colorado, Villanova, Oregon, EMU, Iona, CMU.
5. And a not-at-all-likely possibility ? Imagine for a moment that two teams deprived of sufficient points finish in consecutive order in either the Mountain or Great Lakes district. This scenario would rule out the one time blocker rule and create very interesting possibilities. A block in one of the two districts only would open the gates for the other to send as many as 8 or 9 or even 10 teams. Now, if by some infinitely small chance both regions were blocked, who the hell would go? If there are not 31 teams with points, what happens? Is that when the committee goes to standards like ?teams with individuals that could place well?? Or would they just admit teams at their discretion? Then again, there may be 31 teams with at least one point even if both districts sent only the autos. Either way, I?m kinda hoping Youngstown State and Detroit Mercy go 3-4 along with Wyoming and Idaho State in their respective regions.