Statistically, what does everyone think is the distribution of mileage of successful collegiate distance runners? I realize there are outliers and things work differently for each person, but am curious to see if there is a common number say 100, etc. for successful runners in college.
I'll also assume that you're interested in 5k/10k/XC guys. I think the mileage number is a function of talent, lifetime base before college and relative intensity of "easy" mileage.
Talent is obviously a big factor, because it directly determines how much someone needs to train to run a given time. Talent, in the form of durability, also determines how much mileage someone can handle, in the short term, before they break down.
Lifetime base is important because if a runner like Chelanga comes to run in college he has probably accumulated a substantial lifetime base prior to college. There was an interview this past fall that said he was only running ~70 mpw around pre-nats, because he can get away with that and still have good strength over 8k. Lagat, having accumulated a lot of mileage in the past 20 years, doesn't need to run 100 mpw to run a good 5k, but an average 21 year old collegian that started running at 14 needs to play catch-up with mileage.
By relative intensity of easy mileage I mean, is the runner doing most of their runs during base at a very easy pace or doing more higher end aerobic efforts and run-to-the-barn type runs? Obviously a faster pace run will be harder on the body but it can also achieve the same benefits (for 5k/10k) as a longer slower run. Thus if the runner is doing their runs a little bit faster, but still very controlled/not just jogging for 2 hours a day, then they can run less mileage with the same benefits. This of course assumes that he is not breaking down.
As far as "successful" goes, I take it to mean nationally or at least regionally successful. Let's say 14:00 and 30:00 for the sake of the argument. I would say that a peak of 110-120 mpw during base, dropping down to ~90 during hard workouts, is reasonable guess. Remember that mileage does not tell the whole story; 90 mpw on an old school running with the buffaloes style system is very hard, while 90 mpw doing 13 runs with 2 workouts and real recovery days is comparatively easy.
Summary: 110-120 max, 90ish w/ workouts, 70ish while peaking/tapering, for the successful average collegian.
track: 50-80, more in the winter, less in april/may
cross: 70-100 during fall/racing, 80-120 end of summer/start of season
In my experience and from talking to friends at many different NCAA institutions varying geographically and academically, it really really depends on the program developed by the coach. Because succesfull collegiate distance runners have (for the most part) been weeded out from the lazy non-work inclined athletes, the average has to be between 60mpw and 120mpw. Very few legitimate distance runners can survive on less than 60mpw, however some reach 50-60 during peak phases. Most collegiate distance runners maintain 70-100mpw in base phase while veteran (SRs and JRs) may hit upwards of 110 or 120 for 1 or 2 weeks in the summer (no school work, easy job), however this rarely lasts longer than 1-2weeks.