I don't think they will.
I don't think they will.
Yes. We are entering a period of global cooling, and we'll be burning as much fossil fuel as we can to keep the earth warm.
Yes. Whether they will run or not...that's an entirely different issue.
Look at where were 20-30 years ago.
1980 - more economy cars in production. Some electric car ideas that didn't survive
1990 - Big SUV boom
Today, one production car (Nissan Leaf) available to the masses that is not powered at all by gasoline. It does not quickly recharge.
The entire infrastructure is set up with gas pumps.
You can quickly gas and go. No charging time.
It would be a big deal if more thn 50% of newly produced cars were not powered by gasoline 20-30 years from now.
Gas stations will have to replace half of their gas pumps with rapid charge electric "pumps".
Maybe Star Trek transporters would greatly reduce the need for vehicles by then.
Yes. I suspect that gasoline cars will be around for quite a while. It's an incredibly compact source of energy. I think there is a decent chance that we won't be producing gasoline by digging it out of the ground, but rather by manufacturing it ourselves, but we'll still be using it.
Battery technology is advancing rapidly. Additionally, technology for self driving cars should be ready in 15 years, which will make car travel safer, meaning cars won't need all their safety equipment, making them much lighter. These two combined could reasonably allow a car to travel 400+ miles on a single charge with charges taking under an hour. I think 20-30 years is very reasonable for the extinction of the internal combustion engine. Think of where we were 20 years ago with computers and cell phones. They barely existed. Cell phones are many magnitudes more powerful than the computers that existed back then. The jump to an all electric car world is not as far as we went with computers and cell phones. This is the timeline I'm predicting:
2017- every major car maker has at least one all electric car in its fleet
2022- every major car maker has at least one all electric car in each size category.
2024- states begin installing rails on highways to allow cars and trucks to charge while driving.
2028- first completely autonomous cars are released to the market.
2031- Dept of Transportation mandates all new vehicles must use autonomous technology.
2035- all cars built without airbags, seatbelts, etc.
2037- EPA bans use of eternal combustion engine in new cars.
I think 2 car families will have 1 electric pretty soon. The only short coming is the range. For the average commute they are great. With one gas/diesel/hyrbid/exteneded-range-ev and one electric most 2 car families would be set up very well.
I think the Chevy Volt is an interesting concept and perhaps might be a basis for more cars that "bridge the gap".
TCB wrote:
Battery technology is advancing rapidly. Additionally, technology for self driving cars should be ready in 15 years, which will make car travel safer, meaning cars won't need all their safety equipment, making them much lighter. These two combined could reasonably allow a car to travel 400+ miles on a single charge with charges taking under an hour. I think 20-30 years is very reasonable for the extinction of the internal combustion engine. Think of where we were 20 years ago with computers and cell phones. They barely existed. Cell phones are many magnitudes more powerful than the computers that existed back then. The jump to an all electric car world is not as far as we went with computers and cell phones. This is the timeline I'm predicting:
2017- every major car maker has at least one all electric car in its fleet
2022- every major car maker has at least one all electric car in each size category.
2024- states begin installing rails on highways to allow cars and trucks to charge while driving.
2028- first completely autonomous cars are released to the market.
2031- Dept of Transportation mandates all new vehicles must use autonomous technology.
2035- all cars built without airbags, seatbelts, etc.
2037- EPA bans use of eternal combustion engine in new cars.
I only agree with the first two events in your time line.
-People don't want autonomous cars (i know i sure don't).
-They will never ever build cars without the safety features you mentioned.
- If states started building charging rails on highways in 2024 there is no way they would be finished by 2037. There is simply not enough money to make that happen in that time. Plus, it's more than just putting a a few a electric rails. We also will have to upgrade almost EVERY transformer on the local power grids as electric cars would nearly double the current demand.
-I'm not sure what an "eternal" combustion engine is.
-The EPA could not ban the internal combustion engine as it will still be necessary for much of the country because our infrastructure for electric cars won't be finished.
Oil production runs along a bell shaped curve.
A new source of energy will have to be found to power the current world's energy needs within a short time period.
Gasoline will still be used in 20 years, even 40 years, its just production of it will be less than today, and it will be much more expensive.
TCB wrote:
Battery technology is advancing rapidly. Additionally, technology for self driving cars should be ready in 15 years, which will make car travel safer, meaning cars won't need all their safety equipment, making them much lighter. These two combined could reasonably allow a car to travel 400+ miles on a single charge with charges taking under an hour. I think 20-30 years is very reasonable for the extinction of the internal combustion engine. Think of where we were 20 years ago with computers and cell phones. They barely existed. Cell phones are many magnitudes more powerful than the computers that existed back then. The jump to an all electric car world is not as far as we went with computers and cell phones. This is the timeline I'm predicting:
2017- every major car maker has at least one all electric car in its fleet
2022- every major car maker has at least one all electric car in each size category.
2024- states begin installing rails on highways to allow cars and trucks to charge while driving.
2028- first completely autonomous cars are released to the market.
2031- Dept of Transportation mandates all new vehicles must use autonomous technology.
2035- all cars built without airbags, seatbelts, etc.
2037- EPA bans use of eternal combustion engine in new cars.
2012- 0bamao loses the election as people realize it's time to drill, baby, drill! And save our sorry asses from the ebil axes of China, Russia and Iran.
2013- Reality bites; people are informed that much electricity comes from coal, is dirty, and they can't make it back from Grandma's without stealing her electricity and spending the night there.
2037- A patent is issued for the eternal combustion engine and it kills the electric car fad.
2038- The EPA is disbanded.
Kevin52 wrote:
2012- 0bamao loses the election as people realize it's time to drill, baby, drill! And save our sorry asses from the ebil axes of China, Russia and Iran.
2013- Reality bites; people are informed that much electricity comes from coal, is dirty, and they can't make it back from Grandma's without stealing her electricity and spending the night there.
2037- A patent is issued for the eternal combustion engine and it kills the electric car fad.
2038- The EPA is disbanded.
lol
haha, eternal combustion engine. i usually proof read pretty well.
2041- Tube travel invented to transport
2062- Waterworld type devastation
2084- Gills developed like Kevin Costners'
2094- Jetskis baby!
An Engineer wrote:
I only agree with the first two events in your time line.
-People don't want autonomous cars (i know i sure don't).
-They will never ever build cars without the safety features you mentioned.
- If states started building charging rails on highways in 2024 there is no way they would be finished by 2037. There is simply not enough money to make that happen in that time. Plus, it's more than just putting a a few a electric rails. We also will have to upgrade almost EVERY transformer on the local power grids as electric cars would nearly double the current demand.
-I'm not sure what an "eternal" combustion engine is.
-The EPA could not ban the internal combustion engine as it will still be necessary for much of the country because our infrastructure for electric cars won't be finished.
Self driving cars will drastically reduce accidents. You'll get one whether you like it or not, just because they will save thousands of lives a year. No more drunk driving, no more fatigue or cell phone related accidents, or accidents at all. What's not to like? The country needs a new grid anyway. The electric rails aren't entirely necessary, especially if cars are getting 400+ miles on a charge (it could be a lot more). I was thinking about long freight truck drivers, who may stick with diesel or go to biofuel. EPA won't ban the internal combustion engine outright, but it will phase it out for consumers and ban it in new cars eventually. The autonomous cars will be the trick. If that gets done sooner rather than later, my timeline might get moved up a lot.
g unit awesome guy neck tats wrote:
2041- Tube travel invented to transport
2062- Waterworld type devastation
2084- Gills developed like Kevin Costners'
2094- Jetskis baby!
The question is, will the jet skis be electric?
An engineer wrote:
g unit awesome guy neck tats wrote:2041- Tube travel invented to transport
2062- Waterworld type devastation
2084- Gills developed like Kevin Costners'
2094- Jetskis baby!
The question is, will the jet skis be electric?
No. Vegetarian bean powered. Gas it up baby.
TCB wrote:
An Engineer wrote:I only agree with the first two events in your time line.
-People don't want autonomous cars (i know i sure don't).
-They will never ever build cars without the safety features you mentioned.
- If states started building charging rails on highways in 2024 there is no way they would be finished by 2037. There is simply not enough money to make that happen in that time. Plus, it's more than just putting a a few a electric rails. We also will have to upgrade almost EVERY transformer on the local power grids as electric cars would nearly double the current demand.
-I'm not sure what an "eternal" combustion engine is.
-The EPA could not ban the internal combustion engine as it will still be necessary for much of the country because our infrastructure for electric cars won't be finished.
Self driving cars will drastically reduce accidents. You'll get one whether you like it or not, just because they will save thousands of lives a year. No more drunk driving, no more fatigue or cell phone related accidents, or accidents at all. What's not to like? The country needs a new grid anyway. The electric rails aren't entirely necessary, especially if cars are getting 400+ miles on a charge (it could be a lot more). I was thinking about long freight truck drivers, who may stick with diesel or go to biofuel. EPA won't ban the internal combustion engine outright, but it will phase it out for consumers and ban it in new cars eventually. The autonomous cars will be the trick. If that gets done sooner rather than later, my timeline might get moved up a lot.
If it means no more car wrecks then sure, go autonomous. I think you're overlooking how difficult it will be to make a car completely autonomous and able to react to any situation. The technology for this will require a lot of research and a lot of money which will keep autonomous cars too expensive to take over any time soon.
My point about the grid was that it will take much longer than 30 years to upgrade it (especially since they haven't started yet). It will be a slow and expensive process and won't happen within the time you said.
Another thing, electric cars have not won the war yet. There are still other technologies out being researched. And don't forget about all the progress being made in clean diesel.
Self driving cars are already working. I'm no expert on the grid so I will refrain from further comment on that. Electric has the most money going towards it so I think it will win.
TCB wrote:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/10/science/10google.html?_r=2&partner=rss&emc=rss&pagewanted=allSelf driving cars are already working. I'm no expert on the grid so I will refrain from further comment on that. Electric has the most money going towards it so I think it will win.
I think it will win too, but it's still being delayed by advances in current combustion engines. I was aware of the google cars. Still I don't see their significance in the electric car takeover. They will not reduce safety features to make them lighter as you said earlier.