If you run a sub 9:00 3200 as a Senior in high school, what % chance do you have of EVER making ANY Olympic team?

There being "way more than 12 Sub 9:00 3200 runners" per year has not been the case consistently for long enough to really calculate this, considering the summer games only happen every 4 years. You also have to consider that not only do some people double, but some of our Olympians didn't go to high school in America. (Bernard Lagat)

I'd say for the most part that the age of Olympians is going to be about 22-32 if you're including the marathon. So that's a 10 year range. So for the the 2012 games, you're looking at anyone who ran sub-9:00 as a senior the years 2000-2009. That's probably between 15-20 guys a year, so 150-200 guys in ten years who break 9:00 as seniors. Then you have your Bernard Lagats and Sam Chelangas, and the many guys who are Olympians who never ran under 9:00. In summary, it's really not much of an indicator.

It depends - are you any good at pistol shooting? How about archery, table tennis, or curling?

Sorry to be a jerk, I couldn't resist. Running a 9:002mile in HS is no guarantee - you have to still have to have a lot of 'talent' - both the kind that means you have room for improvement and the kind that means you are durable. And make sure you're not a headcase.

Not Even Close ToSub 9:00 3200 wrote:

Was just wondering... how many sub-9:00 3200 as seniors in HS ever make an Olympic team... percentage-wise?

Would be interesting to know.

When you consider... on the Men's side... that there are three spots for each of the following distances:

3,000M Steeplechase

5,000M

10,000M

Marathon

... well... that's only 12 USA male distance runners (3,000M Steeple and up, of course) going per Olympics (and that number could be less if someone doubles).

And I'm sure there are way more than 12 Sub 9:00 3200 runners as Seniors.

Hmmm...

Here you go:

1. Find the all time list for 3200m.

2. Eliminate all athletes who are still competing and have a remote chance of qualifying for the Olympics.

3. Count the number of people who ran sub-9:00.

4. Count the number of people among those who qualified for an Olympic team.

5. Divide the answer to number 4 by the answer to number 3.

That should give you a reasonable estimate of the probability. I would restrict this to 1975 or so onward. Honestly, it has probably gotten lower though due to many factors. Unfortunately, the more you restrict it, the smaller the pool of people whose careers are not yet complete.

I would estimate it as <3%.

we've had olympic marathoners who didnt even come close to 9 in hs

Not Even Close ToSub 9:00 3200 wrote:

Was just wondering... how many sub-9:00 3200 as seniors in HS ever make an Olympic team... percentage-wise?

Would be interesting to know.

When you consider... on the Men's side... that there are three spots for each of the following distances:

3,000M Steeplechase

5,000M

10,000M

Marathon

... well... that's only 12 USA male distance runners (3,000M Steeple and up, of course) going per Olympics (and that number could be less if someone doubles).

And I'm sure there are way more than 12 Sub 9:00 3200 runners as Seniors.

Hmmm...

Exceedingly rare to make an Olympic team. 12 spots. 50 states. .24 runners per state. I'm sure there are many ways to figure out the percentage chance of making an Olympic team, but pretty much no matter how you choose to do so, it is crazily rare.

The 2008 Olympic team in those events were:

Steeple - Fam (did not run sub 9:00), Nelson (ran sub 9:00), McAdams (did not run sub 9:00)

5000 - Lagat (no HS in USA), Teg (ran sub 9:00), Dobson (not sure if he ran a 3200, but did run equivalent 3000 of a sub 9:00)

10,000 - Abdi (not sure what he ran in high school), Rupp (not sure if he ever ran a 3200, but definitely ran equivalent), Torres (ran sub 9:00)

Marathon - Hall (ran sub 9:00), Ritz (ran sub 9:00), Sell (everyone's favorite example of someone who didn't run fast in high school, didn't do it)

The vast majority of sub 9:00 guys never make an Olympic team and a few guys that don't run sub 9:00 do make the Olympic team. (Your odds are much better being a sub 9:00 guy obviously.)

There is no need to speculate, the data on this stuff exists. Here is the all-time 2 mile list through 2003:

http://www.cs.uml.edu/~phoffman/nats/gods.htm

Subsequent years can be found from the Dyestat database:

http://parser.dyestat.com/

Hmmm, can't seem to find a good site that lists every U.S. Olympic team. If we can find that, then someone has to do the legwork and math.

Actually, here's a place to find all the Olympic results going back to 1952:

http://2008olympictrialsakatommyleonard.shutterfly.com/filecabinet

We can search through those for the list of Americans.

Sorry, that wasn't all the Games. And that wasn't even the best link from that page. HERE we go, full list of Olympians, just click on the appropriate Games: http://www.sports-reference.com/olympics/countries/USA/

Brian Sell did not break 10 in high school

I bet there are Olympians that can't break 9 who ran in the marathon! Wasn't a mid 3 hour marathoner let in from Sri Lanka or Tibet? Or do you mean ANY as in USA teams? I don't think Sell broke 9?

Why aren't you including the 800 and 1500?

5.7%

332 boys in US high schools had broken 9:00 for 3200m (including converted 2-Miles) through 2004, giving them a reasonable chance to make the 2008 Olympic team. It's up to 452 through 2010.

19 have run for the USA in the Olympics. In order by HS 2-mile/3200m PR:

Gerry Lindgren

Craig Virgin

Steve Prefontaine

Dathan Ritzenhein

Galen Rupp

Alan Webb

Meb Keflezighi

Dan Middleman

Matt Centrowitz

Matt Tegenkamp

John Tuttle

Reuben Reina

Ryan Hall

Jonathon Riley

Jim Spivey

Todd Williams

Ed Mendoza

Brad Barquist

John Trautmann

Nicely done, glad someone computed this

Nice compilation, glad someone did it. Not to be nitpick too much, but just want to point out that the list includes 2 miles converted to 3200m but does not include 3000m, which will exclude someone like Ian Dobson (2008 Olympian over 5km) who ran in Oregon in HS so ran exclusively metric distances (1500 and 3000) and did so fast (not sure what he actually ran but probably around 8:10, but surely well under the 8:20 which most would count as a 9min 2 MILE), I am not sure but there may be others like this as well

If we go off of the list posted earlier in this thread then 3k conversions are included. Dobson's 8:18 3k converts to 8:58 for two miles, and he's on the list.

Oh, I see what you're saying. He's not on the Olympian list. Yeah, that's a problem. Also John Trautmann's 8:05 3k converts to 8:44 for two miles so really he shouldn't be at the bottom of the Olympian list if it's sorted by HS times.

You have to factor in the sub 4:10 1600m guys that don't run a quick 3200 in HS. Sub 9 (or even 8:50) doesn't make a olympic spot likely. It does give you a much better chance than the 10 flat guy.

Not Even Close ToSub 9:00 3200 wrote:

Was just wondering... how many sub-9:00 3200 as seniors in HS ever make an Olympic team... percentage-wise?

Would be interesting to know.

When you consider... on the Men's side... that there are three spots for each of the following distances:

3,000M Steeplechase

5,000M

10,000M

Marathon

... well... that's only 12 USA male distance runners (3,000M Steeple and up, of course) going per Olympics (and that number could be less if someone doubles).

And I'm sure there are way more than 12 Sub 9:00 3200 runners as Seniors.

Hmmm...