How many men can run sub 2:10, 2:20, 2:30?

The question is for a marathon, btw.

- Sub 2:10 -> 4-5- Sub 2:20 -> 100-200- Sub 2:30 -> 500 - 1000- Sub 2:40 -> 1000 - 5000- Sub 2:50 -> 5000 - 10,000- Sub 3:00 -> 10,000 +

Sub Sub wrote:

A very simple question (guess?). I am wondering how many men (training or not) at this moment, in the United States, have the ability to run:

- Sub 2:10

- Sub 2:20

- Sub 2:30

- Sub 2:40

- Sub 2:50

- Sub 3:00

Stopping there as I think it would be very difficult to guess how many can rub sub 4, since some could even without ever training. To run sub 3 means you ran somehow at some point in your life, unless you're Lance Armstrong.

Thanks in advance!

(feel free to differentiate men/women if you have some good idea or stats)

Here's some stats from MarathonGuide.com. It looks like a breakdown of their 2009 statistics, but uses 30min increments. It also doesn't breakout nationalities, but rather all finishers of US marathons in their database.

599 total finishers under 2:30 in 2009. That includes a few women. 8,369 total finishers under 3:00. Approx 467,500 total finishers. Scroll up on that page and see that overall finishers since 2000 is up over 50% (from 300,000 to 467,500), that's a pretty crazy stat.

It states that median and average times are down year-over-year. It doesn't show a comparison or trend of median times since 2000 which would be interesting to see if the growth in the sport is from penguins packing in the back, or perhaps development of some of the early-adopting penguins into decent runners over the years.

http://www.marathonguide.com/Features/Articles/2009RecapOverview.cfm#FinishingTimes

oh wow, so the 'no man's land' of marathon really is a 2:20-2:29 marathoner huh?

Fast enough to be on it's own and nowhere near getting $s or other distinctions for it, yet it must take a significant toll on their life to be able to run that fast (i.e. training volume with probably regular job).

I always made my mind that when I'll be able to run under 3 hours I'll find myself something else to do, or another distance (I'm ~ 3:15 shape right now / don't laugh).

I'll almost guarantee you that if you dip under 3hr, you'll find a reason to try to get under 2:55, and then 2:50. From there it gets kind of tough unless you're a young kid just out of a 4yr program.

Its an exponential growth

yeah I assumed it was distributed along a bell curve (large sample/ many trials).

carter's stats are in line with your stats, since marathonguide counts finishers as opposed to individuals and we can safely assume that the average individual under 3 in a given year accounts for 1.2-1.5 of these finishes (at least).

Shit man, don't know why I blanked on total finishes vs. individual finishes. That's a big hole on that statistic list, but it at least let's us know that the numbers and percentages are even less than those stated.

When you say have the ability what does that mean? Stepping out the door in the next week, having the ability to with a proper 3 month marathon cycle, or have the ability to with a couple years of optimized marathon training.

By the most lenient standards

2:10- 20-30 (13:40 5k/28:3010k)

2:20- 300-500 (anyone who can run (~14:20/30min 10k)

2:30- 5000-2500 (anyone who can run (15:30/32:30min 10k)

I mean right now; not necessarily in the next 5 mins, but within a week or so (i.e. with proper rest but without any more specific training).

I reckon the above requirement is drastic.

The numbers stated in this thread most likely apply well to your #2 case (proper 3 month training cycle).

Your last case would be very very tough to say, you'd need to search for whoever MIGHT have the ability. At least with #2 the filter is tight enough already.

SserPrun95 wrote:

When you say have the ability what does that mean? Stepping out the door in the next week, having the ability to with a proper 3 month marathon cycle, or have the ability to with a couple years of optimized marathon training.

By the most lenient standards

2:10- 20-30 (13:40 5k/28:3010k)

2:20- 300-500 (anyone who can run (~14:20/30min 10k)

2:30- 5000-2500 (anyone who can run (15:30/32:30min 10k)

agree with this moreso than looking at actual results. There are many that "can" but just don't do it for whatever reason (the most common reason being they're in a college running program without a marathon being realistic).

meant to say with the sub 2:30 group 1500-2500... ooops

ok doubly an idiot, meant 2500-5000

SserPrun95 wrote:

ok doubly an idiot, meant 2500-5000

good numbers, but you just used two names on one thread.....i just find that funny

Sub Sub wrote:

oh wow, so the 'no man's land' of marathon really is a 2:20-2:29 marathoner huh?

Fast enough to be on it's own and nowhere near getting $s or other distinctions for it, yet it must take a significant toll on their life to be able to run that fast (i.e. training volume with probably regular job).

Tell me about it, getting into mid-2:20's shape is not easy with a full time job and no coach/training group. It is fast enough to get occasional comped entries and race wins though, which is always nice and makes you feel special.

Is the marathon that weak? A sub 2:10 would make you very competitive to make most countries Olympic team but 13:40 wouldn't even get you the Olympic A standard.

1998 wrote:

By the most lenient standards

2:10- 20-30 (13:40 5k/28:3010k)

2:20- 300-500 (anyone who can run (~14:20/30min 10k)

2:30- 5000-2500 (anyone who can run (15:30/32:30min 10k)

[/quote]

[quote]Aghast wrote:

Is the marathon that weak? A sub 2:10 would make you very competitive to make most countries Olympic team but 13:40 wouldn't even get you the Olympic A standard.

[quote]1998 wrote:

My estimates were based off the assumption that someone had the potential to run that time. 13:40 was bare minimum of what you would need in my opinion to be capable of running a 2:10. Bare minimum coupled with the assumption that you underwent optimized marathon training and had the right biomechanics and physiology for it.

sub 2:10 According to the the all time list of us marathons about 15 runners have gone sub 2:10 but only 3 of them are still running by my reckoning. This is a serious pro time.

sub 2:20 Cant find the year list of times but i would guess that some where in the neighborhood of 50 runners that could do this if they really went for it. Still a pretty big time.

sub 2:30 Now you're getting in to the range of guys whom are not even pro runners maybe former college guys who are still in great shape and trying to break in to the sub 2:20 group. My guess is about there are about 200-300 of these guys out there.

sub 2:40 There are lots and lot of these guys the first guy in this group at last year Chicago marathon was in 185th place to give you an idea. There are hundreds maybe even thousands of them, although you still have to be in decent shape to run this time.

sub 2:50 alot who cares its like asking how many guys can break 19 min in the 5k.

sub 3:00 if you are worried about cracking 3 you are just a fun runner who is trying to get in to marathon running. Still cool for them but not really worth talking about time. There are thousands.

If you really think that running under 2:50 (6:29 pace) is analogous to running under 19:00 in the 5k, you're a fool. Those 2 performances are on different planets!