Deep field at New Haven 20k. Predictions?

Trafeh will win since they do not drug test and then go race a weekend 10k after that since none of the major marathons will tough him. good luck with that mo

Hastings then Lewy Boulet for the women.

Trafeh then Gotcher for the Men.

I'm a male hoping to run around 1:10-1:11 for the 20k and thought there would be a good pack of women to run with. Looking at last year's results, it seems like, generally speaking, the women splintered pretty early. The women in that 1:10-1:11 range went through 10k in:

34:19

34:26

34:55

So there was a decently wide gap by halfway through.

Also, it looks like almost no one in that race ran even or negative split. Having never run New Haven before, is the back half harder then the front half? I was thinking I would try and run 5:40-45 from the gun, and then hopefully feel good to crank the last 3 miles.

Thoughts?

Patrick Smythe for the win!

A disciplined time-trialer can easily negative split. Be careful on a hot day as the middle of the course is exposed.

I'll be rooting for the Storage Twins, go Infinite Running!

The elite race usually goes out pretty fast the first mile and so everyone gets sucked into that....it is one of the few perfectly flat miles. It's usually fairly warm, so that is also going to make it harder to negative split. There are some rolling hills in the middle, but after 10 miles there is a little downhill and the last mile or so is fairly straight and flat. I ran a slight positive split there, but I thought (effort-wise) i was going to significantly negative split it.

I will be rooting for Mike Sayenko.

ZAC HINE FOR THE WIN

Cool... thanks flaker. Didn't realize any point of the course was rolling. The way they make it sound on the website is perfectly flat with the exception of 2 hills that aren't much of a big deal. Good to know that its, in fact, rolling.

Sounds like it may make the most sense to run the 1st mile as easy as possible (maybe, for me, like 5:50) and then just try and settle into 5:40-45 before really trying to get going on that slight downhill and the last 3.

Although, more then likely, I'll just race. I want to use this to see where I'm at with about 5 weeks to go until Chicago, so I should probably just take some risks, not look at the watch, and race.

Not sure where the rolling hills are in the middle. That's about as flat as can be. Weather is forcast as 72 and little hunidity. Times will be super fast unless the hurricane switches direction and heads straight back (which won't happen)

If you wear a watch and pay attention to splits, you won't have to plan a strategy that involves following the women around the course. Not sure what kind of strategy that is, although it could be a good one if you want to enjoy the scenery rather than run fast.

Yeah, like I said, will probably just race it and see where that lands me. Just need to make sure I don't go out faster then 5:35 and no slower then 5:50, take stock of my effort level, and just run.

918 ft. of elevation change. I'd characterize it as "gently rolling", with a few good hills around 2-3 and 9+. To put it in perspective, most marathon courses are around 1000-1800 ft. of elevation change, so New Haven is comparable (but less than half the distance). The course is like a miniature version of Twin Cities, even the timing of the large hill around 9.

[quote]gently rolling wrote:

http://www.usatf.org/routes/view.asp?rID=2096

"918 ft. of elevation change......"

I find this hard to believe unless the figure is for the total number of feet it climbs and drops over the 20.1km. starts and ends in the same spot (within meters) Small hill on Grasso at 2-3, might be called a hill if you live in Indiana. NO WAY THIS COURSE CAN BE DEFINED AS ROLLING OR EVEN GENTLY ROLLING. Then flat as a pancake until the small hill that leads into East Rock Parkat about 9.5. Slight change in elevation as you approach 4 miles. Most people don't even notice it.

Have you run a pancake flat course like Chicago? Or Houston? Or the Indy Mini? New Haven is NOT flat-- having run it, gently rolling is a perfect description. The hills aren't that significant (except for the hill around 9, which is noticeable), but on the whole the course is undulating for a majority of it. It feels just like what you can expect at Twin Cities (which I've run twice as well). Both courses can be fast, very fast, cause the undulation helps you maintain your momentum and not beat up your legs through repetitious muscle usage. And I'm saying this coming from a hilly location and having trained on mountains at 8,000-11,000 ft. my last two marathons.

1. Brett Gotcher

2. Mo Trafeh

3. James Carney

4. Patrick Smythe

5. Patrick Rizzo/Dan Browne

1. Magda Lewy-Boulet

2. Tera Moody

3. Amy Hastings

I'm hoping Carney pops a good one!

Smythe could use a confidence booster.

Anyone know what kind of shape Dan Browne is in?

Where did that list of elites come from? I can't seem to find it anywhere.

Nice that Brendan Callahan made the cut, he's a CT resident who runs a lot of road races!

It's a USATF Championship, they test.

I ran the Bronx Half this year. More then 1 person said it was "fairly flat with a few hills". I thought it was worse then running a 1/2 in Central Park.

I'm going into New Haven assuming its hilly. I was taken by surprise in the Bronx and would rather be pleasantly surprised then shocked by the difficulty.