I think that his 7:53 steeple says it all. 33 seconds is not much to add from 3000m flat to 3000 steeple, and so I suspect his flat 3000 could be sub-7:20.
I think that his 7:53 steeple says it all. 33 seconds is not much to add from 3000m flat to 3000 steeple, and so I suspect his flat 3000 could be sub-7:20.
33 is a lot. Most steeplers with good techniques lose more like 20 secs!!!
20??
I've read that 30-45 is common, and that's with good technique...
So even if we declare Shaheen's technique near-perfect (should we?), I would think he should be good for 7:2x easily and quite possibly sub-7:20...
That is, of course, if he returns to his fine form of a few years back...
He is good at jumping and recovering, in a flat racce he'd not be as good.
Really irrelevant at this point as he has not ben fit in a couple of years at least.
The best example is Moses Kiptanui.
His PR's were 7:56.16 and 7:27.18. (29s differential)
He held the world record in each event.
His steeple WR was 7:59.18 at the same time he held the open 3K record. (32s differential)
So Shaheen would have to be bad at the steeple to have been in 7:20 shape.
steeplematic wrote:
20??
I've read that 30-45 is common, and that's with good technique...
So even if we declare Shaheen's technique near-perfect (should we?), I would think he should be good for 7:2x easily and quite possibly sub-7:20...
That is, of course, if he returns to his fine form of a few years back...
steeplematic, a handful have broken 8:00 for the chase
Saif Saeed Shaheen 7:32.46 7:53.63
Moses Kiptanui 7:27.18 7:56.16
Reuben Kosgei 7:41.86 7:57.29
Brahmin Boulami 7:38.18 7:55.28
Bernard Barmasai 7:36.40 7:55.72
Wilson Boit Kipketer 7:33.96 7:59.08
Paul Kipksiele Koech 7:33.93 7:56.37
Ezekiel Kemboi no 3000m 7:58.85
Stephen Cherono 7:38.0+ 7:58.10
For these a realistic conversion is probably about 20-30 seconds. If it was 45 seconds, these men could do about 7:10-7:15.
Dudes, how many times? No one alive today is touching my record. Nada, no way. Shaheen? Pfft, he ran ok a few years ago but he's washed up. My boy Kenny B is a crazy cat at the 5k and up but the pudgy, Ethiopian dwarf ain't running 7 and a half 58 second laps. No happening mofos.
Simon Vroemen:
800 meter 1.48.82 Uden 28-jun-1995
1000 meter 2.20.9 Uden 28-jun-1994
1500 meter 3.39.11 Nijvel (B) 28-jul-1994
3000 meter 7.58.38 Leiden 10-jun-2001
5000 meter 13.50.15 Kerkrade
2000 meter steeple 5.26.08 La Laguna (SPA) 14-sep-2002
Goodrich wrote:
steeplematic wrote:20??
I've read that 30-45 is common, and that's with good technique...
So even if we declare Shaheen's technique near-perfect (should we?), I would think he should be good for 7:2x easily and quite possibly sub-7:20...
That is, of course, if he returns to his fine form of a few years back...
steeplematic, a handful have broken 8:00 for the chase
Saif Saeed Shaheen 7:32.46 7:53.63
Moses Kiptanui 7:27.18 7:56.16
Reuben Kosgei 7:41.86 7:57.29
Brahmin Boulami 7:38.18 7:55.28
Bernard Barmasai 7:36.40 7:55.72
Wilson Boit Kipketer 7:33.96 7:59.08
Paul Kipksiele Koech 7:33.93 7:56.37
Ezekiel Kemboi no 3000m 7:58.85
Stephen Cherono 7:38.0+ 7:58.10
For these a realistic conversion is probably about 20-30 seconds. If it was 45 seconds, these men could do about 7:10-7:15.
Any reason why you counted him twice?
Just an example: Henry Marsh, who had excellent form, ran 8:09 in the chase and 7:53 in the flat 3000.
yyy wrote:
33 is a lot. Most steeplers with good techniques lose more like 20 secs!!!
Agreed. Especially since the velocities required to get you to 7:53, you have to be approaching your top running speed to get there.
I'd say at anything under 8:00 for the steeple your flat should be about 20-25s faster.
steeplematic wrote:
20??
I've read that 30-45 is common, and that's with good technique...
45s differential isn't anywhere near good technique.
malmo wrote:
yyy wrote:33 is a lot. Most steeplers with good techniques lose more like 20 secs!!!
Agreed. Especially since the velocities required to get you to 7:53, you have to be approaching your top running speed to get there.
I'd say at anything under 8:00 for the steeple your flat should be about 20-25s faster.
Therefore Daniel Komen could have run 7:40-7:45 for the steeplechase.
another wild theory wrote:
Therefore Daniel Komen could have run 7:40-7:45 for the steeplechase.
Apples are red. Cherries are red. Therefore apples are cherries.
malmo wrote:
Apples are red. Cherries are red. Therefore apples are cherries.
That's a fallacy, malmo. I think you're invalidly reversing a one-way implication to arrive at that conclusion. If you don't believe me, compare an apple and a cherry sometime. They're NOT THE SAME!
Ya think?
From the "apples are cherries" post on, I just busted up. Thank you, fellas.
as a steeplechaser myself, 33 seconds is a lot. more like 20-25.
I read only now about this debate. First thing : this debate is useless, because we speak about theory only. When we look at the PB of the best steeple runners, their record in 3000m flat is, normally, not significative. Shaheen, for example, ran in 7'34" in Doha (2nd behind Kipchoge) coming from a form of typhus, so was at 60% of his shape. His PB of 7'32" was in 2009, when he was not in shape, after the surgery. Also his WR in steeple cannot be considered his real limit. In 2006, he was very much stronger than in 2004, but there were no more pacers of the same level. In 2004, his pacers were athletes as Vroemen and Luis Miguel Martin (bronze medal in WCh) ; in 2006, good pacers disappeared (Le Dauphine broke his tendon, and he was a perfect first rabbit for a World Record). As I was his coach from his beginning (2001), I well know what he was able to do every year, and in 2006 he was 20% stronger than in 2004.
The problem of Shaheen is that he NEVER WAS GOOD IN RUNNING ALONE. There are runners able to do their best running alone : in the history, for example, we had an exceptional example with Ron Clarke, and before with Vladimir Kuts. In these days, we see Josphat Kiprono Menjo that prefer a "solo" than a "hot" competition.
When we speak about Daniel Komen and/or Kenenisa Bekele, we speak about athletes able running alone at their max intensity. Shaheen was not like this : during his best period, he was practically unbeatable in an open competition, and when he lost from Bekele (for example, Golden Gala in 5000m in 2006, or World Indoor Champs in 3000m in 2006) he made big tactical mistakes, due to his lack of experience in busy races, because 6 years of steeple running normally alone against time didn't allow him in growing tactically. For example, in Rome 2006 a small group of 3 athletes (Bekele, Shaheen, Kipchoge) followed the rabbit going till 3000m in 7'36", with about 80m of advantage after 3 km, but, when the pacers finished their work, nobody was interested in pushing, the 3 athletes run their 4th km in 2'50", and all the group was again together with 500m to go. Here, Bekele stopped running, moving in 3rd lane, and somebody else had to go in front. Kenenisa let all the athletes in the leading group to go, controlling their expression, and suddenly changed completely his speed, overtaking all the group in 2nd-3rd lane, starting the last lap at very high speed. Shaheen was in the pack, and could not react.
I remember the last 400m of Bekele and of Shaheen (this is part of my notes in the training of Shaheen) : the first 100m of Bekele were 12"8, for Shaheen, prisoner in the group in the first lane, 14"2. After this, the last 300m were covered by Bekele in 40"5 (53"3 last lap), by Shaheen in 39"4 (53"6), and that was the final difference.
Anyway, I can say that Shaheen had the potentiality to run under 7'20" only in the case to have with him a Daniel Komen in shape, probably, in this case, becoming the winner. Otherwise, if he could run while in top shape a 3000 flat, I suppose his best could be between 7'23" and 7'25".
Personally, I think that the current WR are very difficult to beat because, at the moment, there are no athletes of top quality able to do their best running alone, and the level is to high that is difficult to find good rabbits.
Also Rudisha can't find anibody able to reach more than 500m in 61", that is what he needs for running near 1'40".
But, of course, longer is the event, more important is to find somebody helping at the right pace.