LetsRun.com And Chris Solinsky in the Journal of Applied Physiology Online

"The current world record in the men’s marathon is 2:03:58 (Gebrselassie 2007)."

That's on the first page. They couldn't have double-checked with the IAAF to make sure they got the time right?

I'm kind of pissed I wasn't asked to review this paper. haha I guess only one JAP paper at a time.

Having said that, this is a RANDOM paper for JAP. Seems like it belongs more in Int'l Journal of Sports Medicine or something.

Personally I don't think much of this manuscript. But, here is the main point in terms of WHEN 2 h will be broken.

"Except for the 1970s, the record has fallen by ~1-5 minutes per decade since 1960 when Africans entered international competition. Improvements since 1980 likely also reflect increased prize money and competitive opportunities that allowed top athletes to earn a living running. Figure 1 shows the history of marathon times and projected improvements. Using times from 1960, the open squares suggest it will take 12-13 years to break 2 hours assuming a ~20 sec reduction per year. If times from 1980 are used the filled squares suggest it will take 25 years assuming a ~10 sec reduction per year. Consistent with the idea that marked improvement is likely, empirical models of running times suggest that the men’s world records for the 10,000m and half marathon are equivalent to a marathon time of ~2:02 - 2:03 (5,21)."

So 12-25 years. That's a bold prediction.

This is why no one in the academic community respects sport science publications. You would never get away with citing a hobbyist website in any respected academic publication

professor1 wrote:

This is why no one in the academic community respects sport science publications. You would never get away with citing a hobbyist website in any respected academic publication

Happens all the time, actually. This was a unique example, though, in that there isn't anywhere else to cite.

The author of the paper has graciously given me permission to post the PDF of the paper. If you want to access it yourself, please click here:

http://www.letsrun.com/2010/Marathon.pdf

That is the latest version of "The Two-Hour Marathon: Who and When?"

It even has the 1-second correction pointed out by the LetsRun.com poster.

The paper may start getting some mainstream press like in the NY Times soon as he has been interviewed by them.

rojo wrote:

The author of the paper has graciously given me permission to post the PDF of the paper. If you want to access it yourself, please click here:

http://www.letsrun.com/2010/Marathon.pdf

That is the latest version of "The Two-Hour Marathon: Who and When?"

It even has the 1-second correction pointed out by the LetsRun.com poster.

The paper may start getting some mainstream press like in the NY Times soon as he has been interviewed by them.

It wasn't just the time, it was the year also.

I'd be very interested in seeing what the "The Science of Sport" guys have to say about this.

professor1 wrote:

This is why no one in the academic community respects sport science publications. You would never get away with citing a hobbyist website in any respected academic publication

What? It's just an opinion piece!

wqqqqqq wrote:

I'd be very interested in seeing what the "The Science of Sport" guys have to say about this.

Yeah, and the Mythbusters too.

Please remove the link to the full length article as it constitutes an infringement of our copyright.

Once an author submits a paper and it is accepted, the author loses rights to the paper. Glad I got it before you have to take it down.

OMG FREE KNOWLEDGE!

Reading that PDF was the most worthless thing I did today. I hope writing this is no worse.

piece of crap

let's run trolls are better

this is truedeau:

However periods of regional dominance in distance running are not unique to the East Africans: athletes from Finland, Eastern Europe, Australia and New Zealand have all had extended periods of success at a range of distances.

I'd be very interested in seeing what the "The Science of Sport" guys have to say about this.

Well, here you go then:

Seems they're gonna look more at the physiology in another post, this one is only on the projection, and it's not really all that definitive.

What is really interesting is that graph of 10,000m - what do you reckon explains that sudden drop in 1993 onwards? You'd have to be naive not to think EPO...

But the overall point is right - you can't look at the marathon in isolation, because it's generally the same guys stepping up, so unless the 10,000m and 21km records also improve, talk of a sub-2 hour marathon in isolation ain't gonna happen. So, who is the guy who is going to run a 21km in 57 minutes?

Look forward to the physiology post when it comes.

John

"The Two-Hour Marathon: Who and When?"

Me in 2012.

Wejo,

Thanks for the source. I don't believe Chris is the tallest though, I personally know the man that I believe is taller. Paul Tergat, I believe is taller than solinsky and he was 26:27 I believe?

Correct me if im wrong, but I do believe he was probably the tallest.

I actually just checked and some sites they have his official height as 6'0, but he is definitely taller than that... I believe he is 6'1-6'2. So they may be about even...