Fanboys you are not going to like this because it's going to be based too much on facts and have little room for emotional rooting and rah-rah.
That doesn't mean I don't think he can win or don't want him to, just that those are some damn fast times for not being able to win thus far and there are legit factors limiting from doing to in the future.
1) Bernard Lagat - Lagat aint haning up before 2012 and he rarely even races the 5000 but had a 12:59 PR when Solinsky could only summon 13:12 after numerous great opportunities. Lagat pops a single 5000 this summer and dusts Solinsky on the last lap and his mark still evades Solinsky months later.
2) Teg - Just having in the race and fit may be a nightmare for Chris. Their record leans heavily towards Teg. Teg is still faster at 1500 and 3000 so in a 5000 championship kick race it definitely leans toward a fit Teg.
3) German Fernandez - German ran faster as a freshman for 5000 than Solinsky had as a senior, and placed higher at a US championship 5000 as a frosh than solinsky had as a 2 year veteran pro. His mile and 1500 speed certainly indicate that he can close with the best of them at a pace he can handle, and by 2011 he'll likely be able to handle 13:10 so the race will need to be very fast (probaby faster than Solinsky ran a PRE) to eliminate him.
4) Webb - If Webb goes for 5000 he's more than capable of taking the title. 1:43, 3:30 and 3:46 are worlds ahead of Chris and everyone except Lagat, but Webb will likely get back to that form and Lagat is not going down to 3:30 again. Webb has almost never raced 5000 but laid out 13:10, which was better than Chris's top mark as a specialist until this season. There is little doubt Webb won't slam 13:00 if he wants to dabble in the 5000 next summer. Webb is actually a gold medal threat in this race if he wants to.
5) Jager - Up and coming obviously but he has very good speed and by next summer he'll be ready for 13:0x. You wouldn't bet on him, but you can't rule him out 100% in a 13:1x or slower race.
6) Rupp - Not likely to race the 5000 at a US championship but certainly a contender. Until this summer Rupp had run 2 seconds shy of Solinkys top 5000 from european circuits in an indoor race. In 2009 he ran the same time indoors for 5000 as Solinsky could magage all summer in europe. He outkicked Solinsky over 3K this winter so that makes him a threat at the end.
Ritz - Also not likely to race a 5000 at the US champs, but Ritz is one second shy of Solinsky's best and faster than Solinskys second best 5000 despite having only raced one 5000 in europe in the past half decade. He also showed the ability to close the last 1000 faster than every top E. African in his race, including the fastest one in history.
Granted I'm not saying all of these guys will beat Solinsky, most definitely not. Just that he will have to beat all of the ones who show up on the same day and that is not a given by any means.
Now his other option is 10000, but he knows well he'll never have the luxury afforded in his first 10,000 and if he would likely have Rupp and Ritz to take down. No point running 9000 meters to find out Rupp and Ritz can close fast when they are not being sat on leading up to that point.
Again, he could win the 10000, but a healthy Ritz and Rupp with no motivation to do pace work would be a handful to say the least. Rupp and Ritz know what it feels like to race a hard 10,000 when you are not feeling good, something Solinsky has yet to suffer through, and may not want to.
But hey, maybe he storms home next summer in his first 5000 US title.