I just ran 21 mile long run at 6:40 average pace and was going really easy, just cruising. I've tossed around the idea of a running a marathon and now I'm wondering if I could put up a decent time. I don't know much about marathon times so I wanted to see what people would guess I could run based on that. Any estimates?
What was your mileage for the week or was this off a 2 week taper?
My total mileage for that week was 100.4, all under 7 minute pace with 1 tempo run.
2:27:00, if you can run 31:50 for 10k and 1:10:00 for 1/2 marathon.
thats about what I did my 20 mile long runs at before my two marathons. I ran 2:42 and 2:32 respectively. the 2:42 was on a much hillier course. I was only running about 60 miles a week with no tempo runs. I imagine that with your mileage, if its as easy as you say and your tempo runs are solid, you can dip under 2:30. Maybe well under 2:30, but its hard to say without knowing more about your training. All that said, take whatever I say with a grain of salt, I'm the dumbass who only ran 60 miles a week to train for his marathons. there's a good chance I don't know as much as I like to think I do about training.
Are people really answering this question? There's 2:05 guys who will do an "easy" 21 miler at 6:40 pace (depending on the altitude and course). There's 3 hour guys who could probably do the same. How can anyone come up with an estimate based on an "easy" run?
Of course they are. Because there is no shortage of foolish people who think they can give a meaningful answer. And no shortage of inexperienced people who think they can get one.
To the OP: Nobody can tell you with any degree of accuracy that would matter how well you could do off of an "easy" run time. Nobody. Anyone who thinks they can has no idea what they are talking about
There are plenty of ways out there to determine a goal pace from a time trial -- one that is not easy. Do one of them. Read up Daniels or hunt down any of the various internet websites that allow you to determine race equivalencies.
not tough wrote:
Read up Daniels...
I looked up Daniels Running Formula pace for easy run. 6:40 gives you a VDOT of 68. I went to a corresponding chart and looked at associated times for a VDOT of 68. The ones I listed are what Daniel's prescribes. If he can run a 10k or a 1/2 marathon in those times he is capable of running 2:27. Lot of what-ifs, but gotta trust Daniels... he's a Doctor.
Tell us your PR's and we could probably help you out a little more.
4:03
i'd give you around a 2:54.
The Wise Old Judge wrote: There's 3 hour guys who could probably do the same. How can anyone come up with an estimate based on an "easy" run?
Really...3 hour guys doing 6:40 pace on easy 21 mile runs? Doesn't matter what your definition of easy is, that would be basically a race effort for a 3 hour marathoner.
If you are a decent racer, you can definitely run 2:28-2:35.
In reply to biggest boss:
I don't run 31:50 for 10k (I should be able to, I just haven't), yet I run under 1:10 for Half and 2:26 marathon. We can't simply go to Daniels without more info.
You made this up -
Apparently I have tow user names, that's why I changed from cole whitaker to cole13. But anyways, I understand that it would be difficult to tell from this information, I just wanted to see what more experienced runners thought. I just graduated high school so I haven't done any long races seriously yet. I ran a 1:13:42 1/2 marathon as training though. I feel I'm more suited to longer distances for sure.
Smallest Boss wrote:
In reply to biggest boss:
I don't run 31:50 for 10k (I should be able to, I just haven't), yet I run under 1:10 for Half and 2:26 marathon. We can't simply go to Daniels without more info.
Thanks for the information. I was trying to throw times onto the board considering the little information he gave us.
Coming from someone who knows you and your prs I would say around 2:35 to 2:41 depending on how your tempo runs are going.
Anywhere from 2:05 to 3:05.
Normal long runs don't predict much. Run your next long run this way:
10 miles easy, 10 miles at marathon pace.
Now that's a good prediction workout.
Alan
Runningart2004 wrote:
10 miles easy, 10 miles at marathon pace.
Now that's a good prediction workout.
Alan
Stuff like this always confuses me, and makes me laugh. Maybe I'm getting caught up in the verbiage used, but please tell me how you are going to do a "prediction workout" that includes XX miles at "marathon pace."
If it's a prediction run, you don't know what marathon pace is currently...
To use the same workout as an example, it seems to me that you'd want to run the 10 miles easy and then blast the second 10 miles to see what you can run while fatigued.
Obviously, you wouldn't run this too awful close to race day. Heck, it might be a good workout/fitness evaluation, assuming your mileage allows for a hard 20 miler, before you start a build up to a marathon. Just my 2-cents...