I want to say 200.
I want to say 200.
aight parker, everyone knows ya broke 30
Anyone can break 30 if they are willing to put in the mileage.
I'd say more than 200. Around 50 have broken 29 so far this year, and there are certainly many elites who haven't raced. Then you have to assume more than 100 relative no-names can break 30.
just a wild guess, 500.
c'mon now wrote:
aight parker, everyone knows ya broke 30
Please check the existence and functioning of your brain before posting.
Thank you.
It would be so cool if every US male capable of running under 31:00 and under 15:00 ran in the Nationals in XC. EVERYFREAKINGONE in one race to see who's the best. Then, the 6 best go to the World XC and they actually run.
runn wrote:
It would be so cool if every US male capable of running under 31:00 and under 15:00 ran in the Nationals in XC. EVERYFREAKINGONE in one race to see who's the best. Then, the 6 best go to the World XC and they actually run.
Who did what to who now?
944 REAL American born Americans can do it.
Anyone wrote:
Anyone can break 30 if they are willing to put in the mileage.
Are you kidding? That's not even true for 15:00.
With or Without HGH / Steroids ?
I am going to start a list right now:
(alphabetical order by first name)
I grabbed the USATF performance list and then added 8 of the top 16 finishers from D1 NCAA XCs last year that I think are Americans. (arbitrarly added Ritz, Torres, Teg as definites off the top of my head)
Current list of 53. Pretty sure there are more.
Ahmed Osman 28:52.6 Northern Arizona 4/15/2010
Andrew Bumbalough 29:39.1 Georgetown 11/23/2009
Andrew Poore 28:58.1 Indiana 3/26/2010
Bobby Curtis 27:33.4 Reebok 5/1/2010
Brandon Bethke 29:38.3 Stanford 11/23/2009
Brendan Gregg 28:56.4 Stanford 3/26/2010
Brent Vaughn 28:05.3 Nike 5/1/2010
Brett Gotcher 28:09.2 adidas 5/1/2010
Brian Baker 28:56.1 ICR 4/15/2010
Brian Medigovich 28:40.5 unat 5/1/2010
Chris Barnicle 28:10.6 New Mexico 5/1/2010
Chris Chavez 28:59.8 adidas 3/26/2010
Chris Solinsky 26:59.6 Nike 5/1/2010
Chris Derrick 29:14.8 Stanford 11/23/2009
Christian Wagner 28:59.0 Hansons 3/26/2010
Colby Lowe 29:42.4 Oklahoma State 11/23/2009
Crosby Freeman 28:56.8 Asics Aggies 5/1/2010
Dathan Ritzenhein
David Jankowski 28:34.3 Zap Fitness 5/1/2010
Diego Estrada 28:40.2 Northern Arizona 5/1/2010
Dorian Ulrey 29:37.9 Arkansas 11/23/2009
Eric Fernandez 28:37.8 Arkansas 3/26/2010
Galen Rupp 27:10.7 Nike 5/1/2010
Hasan Mead 29:40.4 Minnesota 11/23/2009
Jake Riley 28:54.7 Stanford 4/15/2010
Jake Schmitt 28:56.2 Washington 3/26/2010
Jason Hartmann 28:26.0 Nike 5/1/2010
Jeremy Johnson 28:37.8 Brooks 5/1/2010
Jesse Armijo 29:00.0 Brooks 3/26/2010
Jesse Cherry 28:44.0 High Point 3/26/2010
Jimmy Grabow 28:35.3 ICR 5/1/2010
Joe Bosshard 28:59.9 Colorado 6/10/2010
Jon Grey 28:40.3 William & Mary 4/15/2010
Jonathan Kotter 28:48.3 BYU 5/1/2010
Jorge Torres
Josh Moen 28:43.3 Team USA Minnesota 5/1/2010
Kiel Uhl 28:58.6 Iowa State 6/10/2010
Lane Boyer 28:52.3 Arkansas 3/26/2010
Lex Williams 28:34.3 Michigan 3/26/2010
Matt Llano 28:51.7 Richmond 3/26/2010
Michael Krisch 28:59.9 Georgetown 3/26/2010
Matt Tegenkemp
Patrick Smyth 28:33.1 Nike 5/1/2010
Robert Cheseret 28:58.7 US Army 4/15/2010
Ryan Sheehan 28:51.4 unat 4/24/2010
Ryan Sheridan 29:47.4 Iona 11/23/2009
Ryan Vail 29:40.7 Oklahoma State 11/23/2009
Scott Bauhs 28:04.0 adidas 5/1/2010
Scott Smith 28:35.7 Cal Santa Barbara 3/26/2010
Sergio Reyes 28:29.7 Asics Aggies 5/1/2010
Solomon Haile 28:43.4 Arkansas 3/26/2010
Stephan Shay 28:41.3 Bay Area TC 4/24/2010
Tim Nelson 27:31.6 Nike 5/1/2010
Well, all this blind speculation is entertaining but stupid. I suspect the OP is pretty close. Last year, 40th on the national list was 28:54.60
Considering that the first 10 guys spanned approx. one minute and the next thirty only about thirty seconds, it seems more than reasonable that in the next 1:06 you could find well over 100 people. Factor in the guys who didn't run 10k but could break 30:00, I'd say 200 seems pretty reasonable.
Now, how many who broke 31:00 could break 30:00 under perfect conditions? Probably another 100, but do you want to play that game?
The same amount of Americans that can run sub-15 5ks
o.O wrote:
The same amount of Americans that can run sub-15 5ks
obviously false.