Which American males have a shot at an Olympic medal (800m - Marathon) in 2012 and how many medals total will US get?

Extremely remote chance:

Solinsky, Wheating, Lagat, Hall, Ritz, Rupp, Teg

No chance:

Jager, Webb, Andrews, Fernandez, Lomong, Meb

Grand Total Medal Prediction: Zero

Fixed.

Let's see what happens at the Daegu World Champs before the 2012 predictions come up...unless this is just a trolling attempt at shitting on American athletes.

Olympic Dreams wrote:

Grand Total Medal Prediction: Zero

Other than Lagat, I agree with your zero prediction. And this is supposed to be the great resurgence of US distance running?

But malmo just suggested on another thread that medals don't matter? So I guess we can all call it a great success if the US brings home zero medals in 2012. At least that is what he seems to suggest.

Sir Lance-alot wrote:

Olympic Dreams wrote:

Grand Total Medal Prediction: Zero

Other than Lagat, I agree with your zero prediction. And this is supposed to be the great resurgence of US distance running?

But malmo just suggested on another thread that medals don't matter? So I guess we can all call it a great success if the US brings home zero medals in 2012. At least that is what he seems to suggest.

I would be pretty shocked if Lagat medaled in 2012.

2 years can bring a lot of change in this sport...look at 2007 Webb v. 2009 Webb...or 2007 Ritz v. 2009 Ritz.

Maybe we'll have some contenders.

I can see it happening in the 5000 and maybe even the 10000 since the event seems to have fewer big guns in it and fewer races to achieve fast times.

Symmonds has the best speed. Therefore, if he bumps up to the marathon he should be our best shot at a medal.

I suggest posing this question in 2 years. A lot can happen like injuries.

winning medals these days is a lot harder than before.

music is happiness wrote:

Let's see what happens at the Daegu World Champs before the 2012 predictions come up...unless this is just a trolling attempt at shitting on American athletes.

No, not trolling. And not shitting on American athletes. Frankly I am very impressed with all of the folks listed on my original post. And yes (to another poster who dissed American distance runners) I do think that this is another golden age for American distance running. Who can deny this when suddenly we have how many Americans under 13 all at the same time (I am losing count) whereas just a year ago there had been a grand total of one?

I started this thread to see what folks here thought. It is true that I predicted zero medals but it would not totally shock me to see as many as three. I am sort of hoping that someone can convince me that two is more realistic than zero. And I am definitely hoping to proven wrong. I would be as excited as anyone to see an American medalist.

Grand total - 2

Symmonds - 800 meter bronze

Lagat - 5k bronze

Since our highest finish in the 2008 Olympics I am going to take a wild stab in the dark and say zero. We weren't even close to being competitive in any event.

Symmonds actually has done quite well in international competition. He actually did very well in the World Champs last year, and even though he had a little bit of a rougher final, he ran VERY well in the rounds, and the more experience he gets, the better he gets too. I think he has a very realistic chance to compete for a medal in the 2011 world champs and the 2012 Olympic games.

i think rupp will make the marathon team and will have an outside shot at a medal.

salazar was young when he made his marathon debut and he was very successful, add all these newcomers debuting in 2:06-2:07, and how young they are example the 21 year old robert cheruiyiot ran 2:07 in his debut in frankfurt and sub 2:06 at boston, eliud kiptanui ran 2:05.39 in his first race outside of kenya (though he did say he had run 1 marathon in 2:12 in kenya) and rupp is better than those 2, other young marathoners who have been extremely successful include tekeste kebede and sammy wanjiru. ethiopia and kenya can only have 3 runners each and most likely 2-4 will have a bad day, oceania has nothing as far as marathoners, europe only has a few sub 2:10 runners, morrocco will have 2-3 good runners, a few individuals in other african countries, japan is in a marathon slump. rupp will make the USA team in the marathon if he runs it and will be 1 of about a dozen who could medal.

Dean K will win the Marathon

I thinking the best chances for an American to medal will come from Ritz in the marathon and Symmonds in the 800.

douglas burke wrote:

salazar was young when he made his marathon debut and he was very successful,

oceania has nothing as far as marathoners,

Salazar has yet to successfully coach a marathoner competitive on the world level. Kara is the closest he has come. He will need to show something better than that before there is any suggestion he can take Galen there.

As far as Oceania, don't count Jeff Hunt out. He's a baller.

Americans runners have the same chance of of winning a distance medal as the Kenyan runners have of winning a NBA game.

Hall has the only chance as I see it. Only MTC has a track record of bringing home the medals for male US distance runners. Meb and Lagat are old men now. Ritz is a big cry baby. The rest you list might do well at B TV and small town GP meets but always bomb against major competition. They'll be filler for the next few years then move on to coaching high school.