Lets move forward on what exactly needs to happen for the USA to advance to the Round of 16...
Group C Current Standings (prior to Algeria v. England)
Slovenia 4pts (GD: +1)
USA 2pts (GD: 0)
----
England 1pts (GD: 0)
Algeria 0pts (GD: -1)
England and Algeria play today (Fri) at 2PM...what needs to happen here?
Next games will be USA v. Algeria (obvious must win) and Slovenia v. Enlgand, what needs to happen there?
No matter the result this afternoon, we still have a chance to advance.
If England beats Algeria that puts them at 4 points
If England beats Slovenia that puts them at 7 points and Slovenia at 4 points.
In that case, all we need to do is beat Algeria by any amount to advance as the number 2 seed (which might not be bad if Germany doesn't win their group.. which they probably will)
If England beats Algeria and Ties Slovenia that puts
England at 5 points (+? Goal Differential)
Slovenia at 5 points (+1 Goal Differential)
In that case, we still have to win. If we beat Algeria by 2 goals or more, we for sure advance as at least the number 2 seed (5 points and +2 Goal Differential).
If England beats Algeria and loses to Slovenia, then all we need to do is win against Algeria and we advance as number 2 out of the group.
We just need to beat Algeria and beat them as bad as we possibly can (but first and foremost just beat them).
^ ^ This is correct. To sum up we advance no matter what should we beat Algeria by two or more goals. The odds are good that we will advance if we win at all, as it would be weird if England did not win both of their remaining games. We could advance even if we tie were England to tie Algeria and lose to Slovenia. In such a case, the U.S. would still not play in the next round as such a performance by England would be the certain herald to the immediate end of the world.
Yes, beat the snot out of algeria for the advance. Assuming england wins out (they are tied right now 0-0), usa will advance with a win. If england ties slovenia, we end up in a two way and the goal differential is needed.
With the Algeria - England tie, the US needs a win. Showing up in the first half against Algeria would be a good start.
US doesn't need to win their final match, but a win would guarantee their advance.
A US tie gives them 3 points
Algeria would finish with 2 points
And if Slovenia beats England, Slovenia would win the group with 7 points, and the Brits would finish with 2 points.
Actually, U.S. can still advance with a Tie.
If U.S. ties, then
England is in if they beat Slovenia (ENG 5, SLO 4, US 3, ALG 2)
Slovenia and U.S. are in if Slovenia wins (SLO 7, US 3, ENG 2, ALG 2)
If Slovenia and England ties then we have (SLO 5, US 3, ENG 3, ALG 2). Since goal differential is the same for US and ENG (all ties) the it goes to Goals For as the tiebreak. So far U.S. has 3, ENG has 1.
So if its ALG-US 0-0, and ENG-SLO 2-2, then it actually goes to a coin-flip.
If its ALG-US 0-0 and ENG-SLO 1-1, US is in.
If its ALG US 0-0 and ENG-SLO 3-3, ENG is in.
If we beat ALG, we are in automatically.
Every team has a chance to make it out of the group depending on the outcome of the games.
ALG makes it if they win with an ENG loss or tie.
if the usa ties with algeria and england ties with slovenia, i'm pretty sure it would come down to who had more yellow cards in their group games and not a coin toss
It would be nice to see Slovenia and Algeria advance - the US and England squads haven't been impressive enough to deserve to go forward. But odds are more with the US (beating Algeria) than with England, who would deserve to lose to Slovenia is they play like they did today.
Since "win and in" is simple enough, the next question is, who do we hope to play in the round of 16? The Germans are nowhere near a lock to win Group D anymore, so Ghana or Serbia could potentially take the group. Would you rather meet the struggling giants or the hot dark horse?
I just cranked through the possibilities. The last two games can go three different ways for each team (W-L-D), so nine possibilities.
US advances on 4/9
US doesn't advance on 3/9
US and England tie, decided by tie breaks on 2/9
So about as 50/50 as it can get for Bradley and the lads.
Old Gregg wrote:
Since "win and in" is simple enough, the next question is, who do we hope to play in the round of 16? The Germans are nowhere near a lock to win Group D anymore, so Ghana or Serbia could potentially take the group. Would you rather meet the struggling giants or the hot dark horse?
Can't see how Serbia are a 'hot dark horse' or Germany 'stuggling giants'. Germany played the majority of the match with 10 men, and I would imagine Serbia would walk all over any of group C the way they're all playing.
They're a proven quality side.
trollism wrote:
Can't see how Serbia are a 'hot dark horse' or Germany 'stuggling giants'. Germany played the majority of the match with 10 men, and I would imagine Serbia would walk all over any of group C the way they're all playing.
They're a proven quality side.
If Serbia or Ghana win the group, I'd consider them to be a pretty hot team. Germany also played the majority of the Australia game up a man, so who knows how good they really are. And with arguably their toughest game still ahead, they certainly can't be comfortable. Also, Serbia (the country and the soccer team) has existed for all of four years, so I don't know if they can be considered "proven" yet.
Agreed that any group C team would get spanked right now. Just wondered if anyone had an opinion on who they'd rather face.
like this wrote:
if the usa ties with algeria and england ties with slovenia, i'm pretty sure it would come down to who had more yellow cards in their group games and not a coin toss
Well no, yellow cards are not part of the tiebreaker. The rule is 39-5. Check it out
http://www.fifa.com/mm/document/tournament/competition/56/42/69/fifawcsouthafrica2010inhalt_e.pdfkeepitup wrote:
So about as 50/50 as it can get for Bradley and the lads.
You assume that every possible outcome is equally probable.
If we win our group, We will be wearing Gold-Plated diapers going into the knockout rounds compared to the other brackets. The Germany-Ghana game will be intense because that group is all over the place. If Germany wins we most likely will play Serbia unless Australia ties or wins against Serbia. If that happens we play Ghana.. But if Germany-Ghana tie, and somehow Australia ties against Serbia then we will most likely play Germany. Then if Australia wins, and Ghana wins then we will play Australia!! I will be cheering my ass off for Australia!!
Then if we win the second rd game we move on to the Quarter finals against either South Korea, Greece, Nigeria, France, Mexico, or Uruguay. (France doesn't look like they will go on as their team is falling apart. They need a large win and pray Uruguay wins)
The way I see it: we win our group!!
Our Bracket:
rd2: Uruguay vs. South Korea (Uruguay wins)
rd2: USA vs. Serbia (we win)
Quarterfinals: USA vs. Uruguay
This is seriously our best shot at making it into the Semi Finals of the WC!! We will not have a better opportunity than the situation we are in right now!! We will probably lose to Brazil, Spain, or Holland in the Semi's, but...
crazier things have happened.
GO USA!!!!!
US will not win. We got lucky twice but our luck will end. We are simply not at the level of Algeria and we will play them in Africa.
England 5
Slovenia 4
Algeria 3
US 2
or we tie Algeria:
England 5
Slovenia 4
US 3
Algeria 2
I think after that blown call Slovenia should consider themselves the lucky ones.
Miroslav Kloser wrote:
US will not win. We got lucky twice but our luck will end. We are simply not at the level of Algeria and we will play them in Africa.
haha, I sure hope you are joking... Algeria is horrible. They have only made the tournament twice, and I have no clue how they made the tournament. They are ranked 30th in the world. Compare that to England;(8) USA, (14) Slovenia (24). Not exactly a powerhouse.