Bernard Lagat may try 5000/10000m double in 2012...discussion and predictions

My guess if he stays healthy, decent weather, GOOD pacing, and competition late in the race 26:48.63.

26:48 for his debut - and I'm very excited to hear about the potential for him to move up. I still think he has a good 3:30/3:31 in him but would rather see him tap into that 10km potential.

So what? Andrew Wheating did the 800/1500.

My guess is that if he tries that double, he will be humbled like he never has been before.

I think he could run 26:50 with good training, but Bekele and Sihine would beat him under any scenario.

He needs to focus on 1, he should think back to the distaster that was 2008.

VIPAM wrote:I have said all along that he could have been a sub 12:45 and 26:30 runner back around 2003. Many will say he doesn't have the endurance for 10000m; however, many said the same thing about Tirunesh and E. Abelygesse (who I predicted would be the next two women under 30 minutes and they were

err...

no...

30'00 was 29s outside the wr

26'30 was then 8s outside the then wr of 26'22

they are NOT of the same calibre of benchmark

30'00 for women is much nearer 27-flat for men than 26'30 is - it's just women have run crap for 10k until last coupla years

bernie woudn't have barely broken 27'00 back in his 1500 prime - talk of 26'30 back then is utter drivel, but that's your usual modus operandi...

Stick a fork in Bernie. He needs to retire. I'm tired of hearing about him, he's washed up and should quit trying to be world-class. Ok, maybe he's not THAT washed up, but he's on the down-swing, and truthfully, I'm just sick of him.

Where did you get the impression that he may double off of the 10?

Trying once or twice is one thing.

Maybe if he ran his stronger event first.

Making the US 5000 team at age 37 will be tough enough with Solinsky, Teg, Fernandez, Jager and company coming into their prime.

Ventolin, while I agree that Lagat could not have run 26:30 in prime 1500 shape are you actually suggesting that 30:00 10000 for women is the same as a 27:00 or so 10000 for men? That is idiotic.

I predict he will set the Canadian national record in both events AND the half marathon.

Side topic: Has the author of the article you linked to heard of Usain Bolt?

Charlie Kelly wrote:

Ventolin, while I agree that Lagat could not have run 26:30 in prime 1500 shape are you actually suggesting that 30:00 10000 for women is the same as a 27:00 or so 10000 for men? That is idiotic.

no

women's distance track events ( except the 3k ) are weak compared to men

men have been running distance events since 1896, whereas women didn't even run 800 in champs 'til ~'68 & 10k only since ~'88

women's times still have not caught up with the men ( & may not for some decades ) & the difference imo shoud be

~ 10 - 11%

try that for men's wrs & what it implies it shoud be for the gals - & what it implies for 30'00

Ventolin

There is something seriously wrong with you. Almost every response I've seen from you lately you have to belittle someone, I hope your in junior high because its scary to think some grown would act like you.

I read all the posts on this thread and you for some reason had to add 1500m prime. Are you that simply that you can't interpret if he trained for the 10000m back in 2003 and not the 1500m he could have run in my opinion 26:45.

Here's 50 cent go have an extremely hot cup of shut the **** up!

The biggest drops in mens times have come from the Africans and guess what, the top women running are Africans as well. Mens records took longer than the women to develop because the participation needed to increase and the talent pool you could pull from increased drastically when Kenyans and Ethiopians started figuring out they were good. While womens records might not be quite to where the mens records are by equivilant performances they are not as far off as you suggest. Maybe the steeple but that is BRAND new for women.

why don't you add the 10 - 11% as suggested to

1'41

3'26

7'20

12'37

26'18

& reverse it for 30'00

& actually put some hard numbers on the board...

VIPAM wrote:

My guess if he stays healthy, decent weather, GOOD pacing, and competition late in the race 26:48.63.

So you basically have doubled his 5000pb and added a minute...genius...

OK, well Bernard Lagat is now truly more of a 3:32 1500 runner than a 3:26 runner. When he was 25-27 years old, IF he had focused his training more toward the distances, he probably would have been almost as good as Daniel Komen. By this I mean he would have still probably been capable of 3:29, and potentially run 7:23, 12:42, and maybe 26:35. Those days are in his rear view mirror. Every year Lagat loses a bit, and he is now getting outkicked in 5000 meter races by runners he would have blown away (as a youth) if he had trained for distances. By next year Lagat will struggle to run 27:00. Of course, being that he will be 36 years old, this will be impressive nonetheless...

Lagat would beast a 10k. How do I know this? Maybe because he just ran 3:34 for 1500, pr'd in the 3k, pr'd in the 5k with the American record, and at his age is in prime shape for longer distances as athletes in their 30s are better at endurance efforts from what I hear (and the idea that running is cumulative so your aerobic base just gets better and better until you get too old and it starts do decline and Lagat ain't there yet).

Prediction: Lagat takes another AR from a white guy :)

Why don't you recognize it is not a direct linear interpolation from men to women?

ventolin does everything by the numbers. There's no room for the human element in any of his analysis.