Nicky for the win.
2:08:58 is my prediction for Nick this weekend in San Diego. He ran 2:13 last November on a difficult New York course. I believe that was worth about a 2:11 on an easier course. He has now moved to Flagstaff and has the benefits of altitude training which I believe is worth another minute or 2, and puts him in the 2:O9 range. Plus Nick seems to improve everytime out which is worth another 30 seconds or so. I believe he will be the next great American marathoner.
2:11:45
2:14
Is he related to that American Idol contestant David Archuleta? Their names are spelled somewhat similarly.
Flagpole wrote:
2:14
No explanation? Why would he run slower now that he is training at altitude, on a faster course, than he did last year?
Hasn't this guy been putting in 100 mpw's since high school? The altitude would certainly help, but he may already be at the high end of his potential.
I'll start at the 2:05:58 prediction from the OP and work my way up.1) From what I can tell, since professional runners started running this thing, the best time is 2:09:04. I just don't believe he will be able to beat that.2) While New York may technically be a more difficult course, you can't dismiss the amp you get from running in New York with all those people and all those very good runners. So, with all that, I believe it's very possible that his 2:13 there is close to the top of his ability at least in the short term.3) As progression in marathons aren't necessarily linear, I see a step back.4) Finally, regarding his preparation and training at altitude..."the best laid plans of mice and men gang aft agley."
live from the OC wrote:
Flagpole wrote:2:14
No explanation? Why would he run slower now that he is training at altitude, on a faster course, than he did last year?
I like that you provided your reasoning, but your reasoning sounds pretty optimistic. Do you have any personal knowledge of how his training is going, especially relative to last fall? Will there be an elite field running ~2:12 pace or better for the first 20mi to keep him company? Are race conditions expected to be optimal, i.e. cool? If yes to all the above I'll go ahead and predict 2:11.30. 2:09 is moving dude. I'd consider another 2:13 and/or a win to be a great showing regardless.
Dropping 4+ min in the marathon at the elite/semi-elite level is not likely to happen, especially over a six month interval. A win would be solid with any time <2:14, but I don't have any knowledge of the course to say that with any authority.
It is funny how ignorant this board can be. There will be plenty of sub 2:12 guys in the field. I believe Henrick has run 2:06 (the same as Hall) and won New York (something Hall has never done). Yet the ignorance of this board doesn't know this because they don't FOLLOW THE SPORT. If Hall or Meb were running this race you would all be licking their nuts.
Oh and Arciniaga will have a tough time ever duplicating his past marathon performance under McMillan. He may run a 2:12 somewhere else, but that is not as good as a 2:13 top 10 finish in NY.
just another guy wrote:
Is he related to that American Idol contestant David Archuleta? Their names are spelled somewhat similarly.
You got jokes man.
Don't quit your day job.
I don't know about sub 209, but sub 210 is definitly within reach. He will finally be able to race now that his coach will not be shoving pace down his throat.
DNF
Well, one advantage going for him would be the course modifications. Last miles (roughly from 17 miles on) are pretty much all flat unlike previous versions of the course which had several hills towards the end (bridges through Mission Bay and over the freeways). Now the only big hill is up the 163 (roughly mile 11 to 12). The course is the fastest it has ever been. Good weather and smart running should result in a new course record (likely by one of the African runners). Best of luck to all.
The warm weather could be a factor. Hopefully the marine layer lasts most of the morning.
Not too warm. Nickypoo is 1:03:57 at the halfway point.
hulk smash wrote:
Dropping 4+ min in the marathon at the elite/semi-elite level is not likely to happen, especially over a six month interval. A win would be solid with any time <2:14, but I don't have any knowledge of the course to say that with any authority.
Going from 2:13 to 2:09 is relatively common among Africans. The most recent example would be Laban Moiben last week in Ottawa. San Diego is a screaming massive downhill course now, so expect fast times.
still sub 210 pace thru 20.5
Conforming?
2:11:47 official. strong race 3rd or 4th overall. winner around 2:10