carter wrote:
In competitive races at the collegiate level or above, the race leader is at a distinct disadvantage to those following in second or third (or in the lead pack). One, you're setting the pace and catching wind resistance for the others, but you're also blind to attacks. Aside from record attempts you'll rarely see the favorite leading a race before the last or second to last lap because their goal is to win (see Geb). Winning wire to wire in a big race requires a bold runner with big balls.
Really being in front gives you more control over a race and lets you react better to other people's moves. See: GF last year in the NCAA 1500, he was able to react whenever anyone came up on him.
IIRC the benefit of drafting on a non-windy day is 1-2% due to the lead runner breaking the wind.