CAL Brutus Invite: Predictions for Rupp in 5000m, Womens 3000m, Coe in the Mile...

I don't know if Rupp is going to be going all out here, he is going for the AR in the 10000m at Stanford next week. Maybe he is just looking for a medium-hard effort and to get some racing like stimulus. My Prediction is 13:20-22ish with a fast last mile.

This past summer, Salazar had Ritzenhein run a 5k at St. Moritz (5000'+ alt.) something like 4 - 6 days before the 10k final at the world championships, and I believe the 5k was all-out, or at least it must've felt like it since he ran it at high altitude. I wonder if Salazar is trying a similar technique here with Rupp: a strong (allbeit not maximum) effort at 5k a week before a big 10k AR attempt?

It will be interesting. Rupp's ultimate goal is to be able to mix it up with the best East Africans short of Bekele himself. It seems like Rupp is at the point where to achieve that, he has to just try and do it. That means trying to break ARs even for a race like this one.

I guarantee that the women's 3k will go faster than 9:00. I say Begley holds on to win in around 8:50. But would not be surprised if Rowbury won.

I knew about Rupp running the 5k, but didn't know about Asmerom pacing. Why would Rupp need a pacer of that caliber if he wasn't going for soemthing really fast?

Is it silly to think he would be going for AR's in back to back weekends? Probably. That doesn't really fit Salazar's M.O.

Do you think Salazar thinks Rupp is in 12:56 shape? Because that's the 5k AR. This is an outdoor meet. I doubt he would be going for that right now. I'm not even sure if Asmerom can run that pace (2:35/k) for 3k right now (7:45). 2k sure, but Asmerom would probably have to be running all out to pace him for something like that. His PR's are 13:15(2:39/k) and 7:45(2:35/k). So not only is it silly to think Rupp would go for the 5k AR now, but Bolota would have to run near his 3k PR pace just to get him there.

LRC said Asmerom is pacing. I didn't look for verification of that anywhere else, so who knows, maybe LRC was misinformed.

Rupp; 13:06.

Don't know about the others.

True, Rupp may not be specifically going for 12:56. But he could be approaching it the way Ritz did when he set the AR. Aim for 13:05 range but above all just run your best and see where you are at. Then again, he could just be focusing on his finishing kick. Maybe Salazar is still taking the long term multi year approach with Rupp and figures that the endurance base will be there when it matters as long as he stays healthy. But I think its notable that Rupp tried to force the pace to try and keep up with lead pack in the 10K WC last year. Thats why I think he may be starting to focus on establishing the sustained pace required to be somewhat close to the top east Africans.

irun wrote:

Do you think Salazar thinks Rupp is in 12:56 shape? Because that's the 5k AR. This is an outdoor meet. I doubt he would be going for that right now. I'm not even sure if Asmerom can run that pace (2:35/k) for 3k right now (7:45). 2k sure, but Asmerom would probably have to be running all out to pace him for something like that. His PR's are 13:15(2:39/k) and 7:45(2:35/k). So not only is it silly to think Rupp would go for the 5k AR now, but Bolota would have to run near his 3k PR pace just to get him there.

LRC said Asmerom is pacing. I didn't look for verification of that anywhere else, so who knows, maybe LRC was misinformed.

I gotta think Rupp is out to bust some rust out before the 10K and I really doubt he'd be shooting for under 13:10.

The best races of the season are still several months away so he should have backed off after worlds and now be back on the upswing in his training. If Rupp is a 27:00 or better 10K runner he can still take aim at 27:13 on the upswing but to be in 13:00-13:05 shape already would be pretty early.

I assume he'll want to be sharper around Pre and ready to go for a US title again with plenty left for the fast races in Europe.

I predict 13:20 +/- a few seconds assuming nice conditions. If he's feeling great he may kick it down to near his indoor PR.

I think there's another sub-13:20 runner on the list who is being entirely overlooked.

Didn't Rupp just run 7:42 at World indoor? That puts him at sub 13:10.

geo wrote:

I think there's another sub-13:20 runner on the list who is being entirely overlooked.

Well if Asmerom is pacing he probably won't be a factor in the out-come of the "race".

I don't know what other sub-13:20 runner you're talking about on the list. Horn's ran 13:31, Smyth 13:39,...?

13:09.42

I just had a vision.

No way Rupp is even considering the American record for this 5000. I predict he runs 13:15, as his focus is on Stanford.

coachkritter wrote:

Didn't Rupp just run 7:42 at World indoor? That puts him at sub 13:10.

That may have put him at 13;10 (and he had already run 13:14 prior to that indoors) but after world indoors he most likely took a little break and then went back to base training over speed training in order to put the foundation down to last thru Europe in the summer. I believe he went back up to alititude to train as well.

I think Rupp is good enough to run around 13:10 while getting back into shape, but he certainly wouldn't want to be razor sharp right now.

Perspectivation wrote:

I gotta think Rupp is out to bust some rust out before the 10K and I really doubt he'd be shooting for under 13:10.

I predict 13:20 +/- a few seconds assuming nice conditions. If he's feeling great he may kick it down to near his indoor PR.

Agree. I remember Rupp almost doing a workout in a 5k at the early Stanford meet a few years ago in a rust buster type race. The race tonight will not be an all out effort.

"I don't want him to run all-out," Salazar said. "I want him to get a feel for racing again, and run a little faster than a 10k pace. He hasn't raced since the World Indoors."

Here is tonight's meet schedule. And, here is the entry list.

Rupp's effort tonight is "a warm-up race for next week," Salazar said.

That will be a hard 10,000 at either the Oregon Relays at Hayward Field or the Payton Jordan Stanford Invitational, with Rupp shooting to better his personal record of 27 minutes 33.48 seconds from 2007. That time is a U.S. collegiate record.

The U.S. record is 27:13.98, set by Meb Keflezighi in 2001.

"I would love have him do it at Oregon," Salazar said. "But historically Stanford has better weather."

WRONG. The collegiate record is 27:28 and held by Samuel Chelanga. Seriously, people, get it right.

"That time is a U.S. collegiate record."

Mr. Question wrote:

WRONG. The collegiate record is 27:28 and held by Samuel Chelanga. Seriously, people, get it right.

Oops, gotta read carefully.

hayward102 wrote:

Rupp's effort tonight is "a warm-up race for next week," Salazar said.

That will be a hard 10,000 at either the Oregon Relays at Hayward Field or the Payton Jordan Stanford Invitational, with Rupp shooting to better his personal record of 27 minutes 33.48 seconds from 2007. That time is a U.S. collegiate record.

The U.S. record is 27:13.98, set by Meb Keflezighi in 2001.

"I would love have him do it at Oregon," Salazar said. "But historically Stanford has better weather."

I have to say, I really hope he goes for this at Stanford. He did set his US Jr. Record running the last half alone in Eugene and when under 14:00 on the 2nd half, but trying to run under 27:30 alone is a different deal and it's hard to know what the wheather is going be like there. Be dissapointing to run a 27:35 and have it be a "great race under the circumstances", when he could have gone under 27:20 in Palo Alto.