Sub 4 Talent

If you think about how fewer than 400 Americans have run sub 4 in the last 50 years, it gives you some solid perspective. Even though it is becoming more rare, the talent required is nearly astronomical as far as the average person is concerned. I would say fewer than .1% of the male population is capable of a sub 4, given solid training (I count solid training here as 4 years in HS, 4 in College, then maybe a few years post-collegiality)

you mean it's becoming less rare to break 4.

running is better wrote:

you mean it's becoming less rare to break 4.

Yes, yes I do, thank you.

So you're saying that approximately 6.7 million people in the world could potentially break 4?

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=0.1+percent+of+the+human+population

lol wrote:

So you're saying that approximately 6.7 million people in the world could potentially break 4?

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=0.1+percent+of+the+human+population

Well, 3.35 million, since I'm saying only dudes, but I would say that 3 and 1/3 million potential sub 4 runners are walking the earth today.

List of NCAA guys under 4 this year...I'd be interested to know what their HS marks were.

Emanuel, Lee

Fleet, Mac

Ulrey, Dorian

Blankenship, Ben

Acosta, A.J.

Wheating, Andrew

Matusak, Mark

Hassan, Abdi

Merber, Kyle

Marpole-Bird, Justin

See, Jeff

Ferris, Dylan

Bayer, Andrew

Miller, Craig

Masters, Riley

Casey, Patrick

Mullett, Rob

Boone, Jacob

van Ingen, Erik

Levins, Cameron

Shaw, Blake

Harasyn, Eric

ichabod crane wrote:

List of NCAA guys under 4 this year...I'd be interested to know what their HS marks were.

Most of the guys (c=converted from 1600 to Mile)

Andy Bayer, 4:13.99c

Erik Van Ingen, 1:52.18

Abdi Hassan, 1:49.5

Riley Masters, 4:17.68c

Dylan Ferris, 4:08.1, 1:49.27

Eric Harasyn, 4:20.72c

Mac Fleet, 4:02.90

Mark Mutusak, 4:09.39c

Kyle Merber, 4:12.11

Ben Blankenship, 4:10.56c

Blake Shaw, 4:15.03c, 1:49.41

Dorian Ulrey, 4:10.79c

AJ Acosta, 4:03.96

Jeff See, 4:04.83

Craig Miller, 4:06.76c

most were near the top of heap in high school.

At least all are very very very very good high school runners (at least sub 4:20 and don't give me that crap that isn't good in high school. A lot of kids run a couple of times a week, only 20 or so miles, and still sub 4:20 will win a lot of state meets)

but of course no more than about 10 percent would be of the age to run sub 4, so maybe 335,000. doubt it.

I think Mark Matusak ran 3:47 at Junior nationals for 1500-converts to faster than 4:09.

jjjjjjjjj wrote:

but of course no more than about 10 percent would be of the age to run sub 4, so maybe 335,000. doubt it.

That math gives you 30,000 American Males currently of the age to be a potential sub 4 candidate. How many American males are currently in sub 4 shape? Somewhere between 30 and 60? This math means that of the top of the top talent, .1-.2% of that talent stick with the sport to make it to the sub 4 range. That math sounds pretty legit to me.

4:13 guy run under 4 min easily now a days?

pfft wrote:

jjjjjjjjj wrote:

but of course no more than about 10 percent would be of the age to run sub 4, so maybe 335,000. doubt it.

That math gives you 30,000 American Males currently of the age to be a potential sub 4 candidate. How many American males are currently in sub 4 shape? Somewhere between 30 and 60? This math means that of the top of the top talent, .1-.2% of that talent stick with the sport to make it to the sub 4 range. That math sounds pretty legit to me.

Scratch that, 15k uhmericans, so, .2-.4%

Cam Levins, if I remember correctly, 3:59.xx... 1500.