With the impressive result of Lukas Verzbicas today, if he and German Fernandez were to race right now ( with German in his NCAA XC shape), who would win?
With the impressive result of Lukas Verzbicas today, if he and German Fernandez were to race right now ( with German in his NCAA XC shape), who would win?
Depends on the distance, but I might pick Verzbicas regardless. German has experience running against tough competition, and over the 8k distance (I won't say 10k, since he has two regional races that hardly qualify as races, a 10k DNF, and a 10k that he ran while damn near injured).
...don't the forget the barefoot 15 year-old Kenyan (pick your name), that would probably kick their butts now...so what's the diff? Just wondering, because it's a matter of time.
Nathan Jessup wrote:
...don't the forget the barefoot 15 year-old Kenyan (pick your name), that would probably kick their butts now...so what's the diff? Just wondering, because it's a matter of time.
True. But the barefoot 15 yr old is probably 22 at least, just like Solomon Haile last year when he won Footlocker. Wait, it's not PC to mention that.
africans are the best runners...at any age.
Maybe as stupid a thread as I have yet witnessed.
LV beat a field that has tired Lutz in it and ran a time and won by a margin Solinksy would have laughed at.
Solinsky ran 14:40 and won by 21, a complete rout over future All Americans all over the place at distances.
Maybe as stupid a thread as I have yet witnessed.
LV beat a field that has tired Lutz in it and ran a time and won by a margin Solinksy would have laughed at.
Solinsky ran 14:40 and won by 21, a complete rout over future All Americans all over the place at distances.
Let's see, 14:18 high school indoor 5k record last year, versus 13:25 outdoor 5k American junior record last year. Even in the shape they're currently in right this moment, the odds are tremendously stacked in German's favor. Are you kidding me?
13:25 guys don't finish 78th in XC nationals. 14:20 guys do.
BloomBalled wrote:
Let's see, 14:18 high school indoor 5k record last year, versus 13:25 outdoor 5k American junior record last year. Even in the shape they're currently in right this moment, the odds are tremendously stacked in German's favor. Are you kidding me?
...13:25 track 5k would make almost any American's career...that being the case, I'd be happy to retire with a 13:25.
78th in Nationals, hey the guy's human, everyone has a bad day.
Just curious, tough-guy, what's your 5k p.r.?
Nathan Jessup wrote:
...13:25 track 5k would make almost any American's career...that being the case, I'd be happy to retire with a 13:25.
78th in Nationals, hey the guy's human, everyone has a bad day.
Just curious, tough-guy, what's your 5k p.r.?
That's not the point. The poster is asking whether Verzbicas could have beaten Fernandez in the shape he was at during XC Nationals. ie, if he'd run NCAAs, would he have finished higher than German. Of course German healthy is the better runner right now.
100 Ulices Pina SR Riverside 14:09.34 W 05-02
First off that was the 100th guy on the descending list for the 5k. Your looking at being a 14 flat guy just to be in the top 100 if you have your best day. lets not forget all the milers and 10k guys that just didn't have time last spring to get into a good 5k. Plus there are 10k guys with slow prs who can just grind out cross country. Saying german was losing to 14:20s guys is ridiculous because that's just not true.
Second if he was actually hurt kudos to a great effort. He looked a bit off all season. The NCAA is just a crazy race. 10-20 second is the difference between a career day and a horrible one. That could be 50 places right there and in a 10k 10-20 seconds is nothing. That could be the difference between going out 4 seconds faster than you should have for the first mile and not. That is the difference between pushing a hill too early or moving to late. That is not eating enough the night before, that is the last drink of water you took before the race. It could have been a multitude of factors. The guy ran 3;55 indoors and 13:25. Get off his jock. If he has been healthy since NCAAs he will run even faster.
track shark wrote:
With the impressive result of Lukas Verzbicas today, if he and German Fernandez were to race right now ( with German in his NCAA XC shape), who would win?
Better question: can Lukas run faster than German did at the same age?
Lukas just won footlocker in an impressive performance, weeks before he turns 17.
German, a week after turning 17 (in other words, the same age as Lukas is now), ran 14:24, all time course record at CA state meet (beating Marc Davis' time by 14 seconds). German's performance was better.
And then German in the spring of 17th year, ran a 4:00/8:34 double (1600/3200). Do you think Lukas will be capable of that this spring (also the spring of his 17th year) ?
Lukas is a monster, but he is not as talented as German at the same age.
(and of course German ran 3:55 flat as an 18 y.o. Will Lukas run that indoors next year as an 18 y.o. in the winter? I somehow doubt it).
Sir Lance-alot wrote:
track shark wrote:With the impressive result of Lukas Verzbicas today, if he and German Fernandez were to race right now ( with German in his NCAA XC shape), who would win?
Better question: can Lukas run faster than German did at the same age?
Lukas just won footlocker in an impressive performance, weeks before he turns 17.
German, a week after turning 17 (in other words, the same age as Lukas is now), ran 14:24, all time course record at CA state meet (beating Marc Davis' time by 14 seconds). German's performance was better.
And then German in the spring of 17th year, ran a 4:00/8:34 double (1600/3200). Do you think Lukas will be capable of that this spring (also the spring of his 17th year) ?
Lukas is a monster, but he is not as talented as German at the same age.
(and of course German ran 3:55 flat as an 18 y.o. Will Lukas run that indoors next year as an 18 y.o. in the winter? I somehow doubt it).
It's tempting to compare Lukas and German at the same age. But I don't think that it is an entirely fair comparison - at least not when comparing HS to college performances. Lots of kids run about the same their junior and senior year in HS (as if they have already reached their peak) but then go on to make another jump once they get to college. Presumably some combination of better coaching, more talented individuals to train with, and maybe just a different routine lead to a substantial improvement.
So, while it probably not fair to compare 17.6 year old German in HS to 19.4 year old Lukas in HS (respective senior year ages outdoors), it is also not entirely fair to compare 18.3 y.o. German college freshman to 18.0 y.o. Lukas HS junior.
Speaking for myself only, I'm just glad there are such talented kids running so well today and hoping they continue to develop and take us a notch or two past where Ritz, Hall... have already taken us. Best of luck to the original big three, the new big three, and the HS class of 2011, another monster class in the making.
trialswatcher wrote:
Maybe as stupid a thread as I have yet witnessed.
LV beat a field that has tired Lutz in it and ran a time and won by a margin Solinksy would have laughed at.
Solinsky ran 14:40 and won by 21, a complete rout over future All Americans all over the place at distances.
How hard is it to spot King99! I can do it all the way from San Diego!
Solinsky was most likely not better, and he certainly would not laugh, only a complete fool would suggest that, which we all know King99 is.
Lukas ran in pooring rain, which was why the time was slower, so the time is not really relevant. Neither is the margin. winning by 15?, or 21, not really any different since both are blowouts.
No one is saying Fernadez isn't a super talent and so on. But given his shape a couple weeks ago (not where he was 6 months ago or where he will be in another 6 months), they race might be pretty competive.
Sir Lance-alot wrote:
track shark wrote:With the impressive result of Lukas Verzbicas today, if he and German Fernandez were to race right now ( with German in his NCAA XC shape), who would win?
Better question: can Lukas run faster than German did at the same age?
Lukas just won footlocker in an impressive performance, weeks before he turns 17.
German, a week after turning 17 (in other words, the same age as Lukas is now), ran 14:24, all time course record at CA state meet (beating Marc Davis' time by 14 seconds). German's performance was better.
And then German in the spring of 17th year, ran a 4:00/8:34 double (1600/3200). Do you think Lukas will be capable of that this spring (also the spring of his 17th year) ?
Lukas is a monster, but he is not as talented as German at the same age.
(and of course German ran 3:55 flat as an 18 y.o. Will Lukas run that indoors next year as an 18 y.o. in the winter? I somehow doubt it).
Lets see last I checked Solomon Haile (14:22) beat German. If you really care you could look up 50-100th places 5k pr to get a better average.You use of yearly lists is flawed. If you took the top 100 5k runners from last year (14:09) and you ran one race, the slowest time would be a lot slower than 14:09.
Fernandez...the savior wrote:
100 Ulices Pina SR Riverside 14:09.34 W 05-02
First off that was the 100th guy on the descending list for the 5k. Your looking at being a 14 flat guy just to be in the top 100 if you have your best day. lets not forget all the milers and 10k guys that just didn't have time last spring to get into a good 5k. Plus there are 10k guys with slow prs who can just grind out cross country. Saying german was losing to 14:20s guys is ridiculous because that's just not true.
Second if he was actually hurt kudos to a great effort. He looked a bit off all season. The NCAA is just a crazy race. 10-20 second is the difference between a career day and a horrible one. That could be 50 places right there and in a 10k 10-20 seconds is nothing. That could be the difference between going out 4 seconds faster than you should have for the first mile and not. That is the difference between pushing a hill too early or moving to late. That is not eating enough the night before, that is the last drink of water you took before the race. It could have been a multitude of factors. The guy ran 3;55 indoors and 13:25. Get off his jock. If he has been healthy since NCAAs he will run even faster.
That's a completely skewed stat. Solomon Haile is a freshman, and it is very evident that H.S. provides much less oppurtunity to work on your track 5k pr than college (plus he did not seemed all too focused on running a super "fast time" in that race if I recall)
And even if you want to say that 14:22 was the fasters solomon haile could have possibley run last spring, to assume that his fitness level is still there would be absurd. He placed second in his region...are you saying there is no one in that entire region besides him and Dorian Ulrey that can crack 14:23 for a 5k? Solomon Haile is easily in sub 13:50 shape right now, and thats being conservative. To use him as proof that germans getting beaten by 14:2x guys is just ludicrous
Nathan Jessup wrote:
...13:25 track 5k would make almost any American's career...that being the case, I'd be happy to retire with a 13:25.
78th in Nationals, hey the guy's human, everyone has a bad day.
Just curious, tough-guy, what's your 5k p.r.?
DID YOU ORDER THE CODE RED?
A better question might be how badly will Verzbicas beat German when Verzbicas is a frosh at Oregon and German is still having his "head game" injuries as an Okie State senior? I'd bet on Luke.