Will Chelenga win NCAAs?

I really don't see how he loses. Personally, I think he wins be 15 seconds at least.

Is this will chelenga character in any way related to will c solinksy?

You are wrong because Chris Derrick has strength and smarts and he will do the same thing to Chelenga as Rupp did to him last year. Chelenga may go out like a bat out of hades, but when Derrick decides to reel him in, it will be over with, and Chelenga will struggle to finish once again.

You are wrong because Chris Derrick has strength and smarts and he will do the same thing to Chelenga as Rupp did to him last year. Chelenga may go out like a bat out of hades, but when Derrick decides to reel him in, it will be over with, and Chelenga will struggle to finish once again.

Yes I will win. We're having a team prayer meeting and I need to hurry and finish the race so I can praise Jesus. The time of the team prayer meeting is such that in order to make it, I'll win by a large margin.

Bump?

Sam Chelanga wrote:

Yes I will win. We're having a team prayer meeting and I need to hurry and finish the race so I can praise Jesus. The time of the team prayer meeting is such that in order to make it, I'll win by a large margin.

Oh, I see what you did there! That's pretty good. You should be commended for your intelligent response. Maybe your friend (probably singular) will award you a "cool point" for a good original joke about someone's religion.

so you think that in a years time, Chelanga hasnt improved any, but Derrick has improved to Chelanga's level? Do you think Derrick could beat Rupp also? Did you see how much Chelanga beat Derrick by last year?

Did you see Derrick reel Chelanga in this year? Derrick has improved greatly this year. Although I don't think he could beat Rupp from last year, he could make it a better race than Chelanga did last year. Derrick has this one wrapped up.

It took Rupp until 3k to realize he needed to be up with Chelanga? No, wrong. Rupp ran intelligently and reeled in Chelanga/let Chelanga come back to him, which was pretty much guarnateed to happen after taking off so fast. Chelanga ran like a 15 year old blowing his wad the first 30 seconds he sees a naked woman. He's not shown that he is as good this year as he was last year. If he tries that crap again this year, he'll get beat, and I think he knows it. He may put a gap early, but I don't think it'll be the same kind of gap he put out there last year.

Chuh ching! Chelanga!! wrote:

My prediction is yes. He seems to been getting stronger and stronger this season and has not over-raced himself at all. Watching the race last year, there seems to be no one else at the same level as Chelanga. When he took off hitting the first "k" in 2:30-something, the rest the field nearly shit themselves. It took Rupp til 3k to finally realize he needed to get with him.

Well, Rupp was clearly head and shoulders above Chelanga, as he proved throughout the rest of the year. Nobody other than Rupp could, or rather should, have been able to beat 13:19i and 27:28. But, is Chelanga even, mentally the same runner that he was in 2008 XC? By outdoor NCAAs Chelanga had received so many beatings from Rupp that he teamed up with Shawn Forrest (27:52), trading off laps in desperate attempt to drop Rupp, only to end up coming in 3rd.

This year, when I saw that he lost to Derrick, my immediate reaction was to wonder if the embarrassment of going from training with the legendary Tergat, to being well beaten by a mere American collegian like Rupp, break his spirit?

Good question. Chelenga has seemed to be getting stronger.

However, Derrick is on a mission. There are a few dark horses out there that are scary also. IMHO, Chelenga's camp should think for a moment. NO doubt at all, Derrick had him measured, as did Rupp. If Chelenga does what everyone expects him to do then, it makes it so much easier for the others to plan and train for exactly what they know he will do. Chelenga should at least do worst case tactics for his competitors. I think he should do the unexpected. Maybe Chelenga only wants to run his same way. Derrick and others are intelligent guys, they are training exactly for...Chelenga's splits.

Chelanga's the favorite, but Derrick is young and stood to improve much more over the past year. I wouldn't be surprised to see Derrick win, because he has run so well this fall and he did beat Chelanga at Pre-Nats. But Chelanga's credentials are better and Fernandez, if finally in shape and allowed by Dave Smith to go for the win, will contend. If 100% Fernandez would be favored over Derrick, given their results at world's and american junior xc this year.

I think it's about a coin flip between Chelanga and Derrick right now. I agree that using his same old strategy of trying to Cherry-pick the field isn't likely to work. Derrick looks awfully strong right now and, like Rupp last year, will be able to bridge that gap, then have more left for the finish. I think Chelanga should mix things up by running with the lead pack for about 6k, then starting a long, tough drive to the finish. If he's truly the strongest man on Monday, he'll win. If it comes down to a kick, I don't think he beats Derrick, but we shall see.

oiskjjsghgs wrote:

Well, Rupp was clearly head and shoulders above Chelanga, as he proved throughout the rest of the year. Nobody other than Rupp could, or rather should, have been able to beat 13:19i and 27:28. But, is Chelanga even, mentally the same runner that he was in 2008 XC? By outdoor NCAAs Chelanga had received so many beatings from Rupp that he teamed up with Shawn Forrest (27:52), trading off laps in desperate attempt to drop Rupp, only to end up coming in 3rd.

This year, when I saw that he lost to Derrick, my immediate reaction was to wonder if the embarrassment of going from training with the legendary Tergat, to being well beaten by a mere American collegian like Rupp, break his spirit?

Last year at NCAAs Chelanga had a much better 10,000 mark but was running an underdog race and only managed third. Why should he dominate now when a number of runners seem to be performing very well.

CatchMeIfYouCan wrote:

I think it's about a coin flip between Chelanga and Derrick right now. I agree that using his same old strategy of trying to Cherry-pick the field isn't likely to work. Derrick looks awfully strong right now and, like Rupp last year, will be able to bridge that gap, then have more left for the finish. I think Chelanga should mix things up by running with the lead pack for about 6k, then starting a long, tough drive to the finish. If he's truly the strongest man on Monday, he'll win. If it comes down to a kick, I don't think he beats Derrick, but we shall see.

I agree with you and I would think that Chelenga's camp is doing just what you suggested, examine the options and consider other tactics. In any battle, rule one is to NOT do the expected. At least consider what an opposing coach (like a Salazar) would be thinking. I'm sure Salazar, last year said, Chelenga can do this #1, or this#2 or maybe this #3. However, we know he is going to do #1. At the same time Salazar is probably saying we hope he does not do #3 because that would be worse case tactic for us. But no biggy he will do #1. If Chelenga wants to do his usual well he may still win. I just think Chelenga's tactic has been expexted for the last 12 months and I wonder if Derrick and others have been training exactly for the expected.

toughyyy... wrote:

...I just think Chelenga's tactic has been expexted for the last 12 months and I wonder if Derrick and others have been training exactly for the expected.

Do you think anyone in the field is at such a high level that they can focus on keying on specific tactics of a runner who is, on paper, at entirely different level?

I think that Derrick and the rest of the field have been training simply to be as good as they possibly can be on Monday. No doubt they are aware of Chelanga's tendency and will exploit it if Chelanga falters. However, I have no doubt that Derrick is more focused on getting the team victory than winning the top individual honor.

If the Stanford team is in good [or horrible] shape at 5k or 6k and the lead is within sight, Derrick and others will go for it.

I think David Mcneill could potentially pull the upset over chelanga and derrick.

Agreed