NCAA Men's Division 1 Championship Predictions

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  • kengir uprising
    10 years ago 11/16/2009 6:11pm CST
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    Here are my predictions. A lot of based on gut feelings or teams past performances. There are so many variables and it seems like 1/3 of the field has a terrible race every year.

    1. OSU 3, 7, 10, 12, 50 =82
    2. Stanford 1,5, 20, 25, 35 = 86
    I scored out the top two because I think that is the biggest competition here. I think OSU and Stanford will be very close but I think OSU top 4 is just too good. I think there will be a big gap from 2nd to third.

    3. Colorado
    4. BYU
    I think these two teams will be contending for the number 3 spot and will be close to each other. I like BYU's depth in their 6 and 7 but Colorado had the horses and seems to run well at nationals at least every other year and last year was an off year. Oregon would be here if they run as well as Pre nats but I don't see that happening.

    5. Wisco
    6. Portland
    7. William and Mary
    8. Oregon
    9. NAU
    10. Alabama
    11. Syracuse
    The teams in this group are all very close and hard to separate and could easily mix it up for the 3 and 4 .
    My order was influenced strongly on recent national performances.
    I am curious to see how Syracuse does as I think they have not faced any other these teams in competition this year other than Wisco who didn't appear to be running great then. I will give Wisco the nod based on Byrne's past success with peaking Iona at nats.

    12 Iona
    13 New Mexico
    14 Georgetown

    These teams are all very good and in past years all probably could have been in the top ten. I feel as the NCAA is definitely improving steadily in depth.

    15. Washington
    16. Auburn
    17. NC State
    18. Virginia
    19. Arizona State
    20. Oklahoma
    21. Florida State
    22.Arkansas (Ulrey will surprise)
    23. Providence
    24. Nova
    25. Louisville
    26. Duke
    27. Iowa State
    28. Minnesota
    29 Michigan State
    30 Texas
    31 Ohio State
    The rest


    Up front I think Derrick will win with Chelanga close by. Watch our for Vail and Heath to grab best of the rest.


    Lets hear what you guys think.
  • sparty
    10 years ago 11/16/2009 6:23pm CST
    re: kengir uprising
    Forum Index
    Michigan State for the win.
  • NovAlum
    10 years ago 11/16/2009 6:35pm CST
    re: sparty
    Forum Index
    I'd say Nova, but that would be a different thread (although I think they'll be closer to 12-14).

    Ok St probably should win, but they've had such mixed results in big meets the last few years. Stanford always seems to peak well at Nat's and I just can't help but wonder if Oregon has been playing possum all season. The talent they have should lead to better results.
  • kengir uprising
    10 years ago 11/16/2009 6:43pm CST
    re: NovAlum
    Forum Index
    Can we put to rest finally the idea that Oregon is "playing Possum" or somehow intentionally tanked at regionals. They didn't. That does not mean they still can't run much better but they certainly didn't blow it at home intentionally.
  • NovAlum
    10 years ago 11/16/2009 6:53pm CST
    re: kengir uprising
    Forum Index
    Poor choice of words on my part. I didn't mean to imply they did in intentionally, just that I don't think we've seen their best.
  • 26mi235
    10 years ago 11/16/2009 7:40pm CST
    re: kengir uprising
    Forum Index
    I think that Oregon took the slight risk of training through the Regional race (and Pac-10 too). It is there only chance to make the podium and is worth the risk. It will probably not be enough, just as the same strategy, with more room because Big 10/GW Regional are easier for Wisconsin and it will not be quite enough for them either. If the seniors run really well, they (UW) could be third, but so far the frosh/soph/junior are leading the way (even though Reed Connor had not too great a race last time or two).
  • SayWhatNow
    10 years ago 11/16/2009 8:04pm CST
    re: 26mi235
    Forum Index
    Men's individual: Sam Chelenga
    Men's team: Stanford
  • SalukiAlum
    registered
    10 years ago 11/16/2009 8:17pm CST
    re: kengir uprising
    Forum Index
    1-OSU
    2-Stanford
    3-Portland
    4-Colorado

    Individual sleeper- McNeill, NAU

    Winner- Chelanga
  • Okie88
    10 years ago 11/16/2009 8:21pm CST
    re: SalukiAlum
    Forum Index
    1. Stanford
    2. OSU
    3. CU
    4. Syracuse
  • The Rocket.
    10 years ago 11/16/2009 8:26pm CST
    re: kengir uprising
    Forum Index
    1. Ok State
    2. Stanford
    3. Alabama
    4. Wisconsin
    5. Oregon
  • kprunner
    registered
    10 years ago 11/16/2009 8:34pm CST
    re: The Rocket.
    Forum Index
    GO BYU!
  • music is happiness
    10 years ago 11/16/2009 8:35pm CST
    re: The Rocket.
    Forum Index
    1. Stanford
    2. OK State

    OK State's 5th man will struggle and Stanford will overcome.

    Top 10 somewhat in order:
    Chelanga, Derrick, McNeil, Kosgei, Fernandez, Bumbalough, Mead, Heath, Puskedra, Vail.

    Closeby: Bethke, Kirwa, Kipchumba, Sheridan
  • The Nerd
    10 years ago 11/16/2009 8:54pm CST
    re: music is happiness
    Forum Index
    Good selections, but I would amend slightly, as I don't believe Sammy has the strength or tactics to outlast Derrick over 10K. I say:

    Derrick
    McNeil
    Kosgei
    Fernandez
    Vail
    Heath
    next 5 anyone's guess?
  • NCAA Goer
    10 years ago 11/16/2009 10:00pm CST
    re: The Nerd
    Forum Index
    What place was Sammy last year?
  • (_)>(_)
    10 years ago 11/16/2009 10:21pm CST
    re: kengir uprising
    Forum Index
    1,5,20 for stanford after going 1,2,3 at regionals without their third man (jake riley)? Rethink that logic a little. Once again, people are ignoring the obvious.
  • mideast??
    10 years ago 11/16/2009 11:20pm CST
    re: (_)>(_)
    Forum Index
    This year will be quite interesting. Stanford has just been so dominate all year...but it is impossible to not to give the nod to OK State. They literally could have 4 guys in the top 10...but I see either Lowe or Mecheso falling apart. Kosgei will lead them, with Vail and Fernandez not too far behind. I think OK State goes something like 3, 8, 12, 28, 37 for a total of 88 points before individuals are taken out for the win. Stanford will not be far behind (if they are at all) though, and could put all 5 of their guys before OK State's 4th if something happens to, again, either Lowe or Mecheso. I think it will go...

    1. OK State - just too damn good. It's really not fair.
    2. Stanford - they will give OK State everything they've got...I honestly think it won't be enough tho.
    3. NAU - yes they had a horrible Regionals, but they are a talented group. Look for them to be top 5 at least.
    4. Alabama - i've been riding the Crimson Tide wave all year. Their kenyans are very good, but not the toughest of runners. If its cold, count them out.
    5. BYU - revenge of the 25 year olds! A very impressive regionals, and I think they'll do it again at the big dance.
    6. Syracuse - they will run in a pack and finish with a 30 second spread from 25ish to 60ish.
    7. Colorado - Whetmore, although with a less talented squad then previous years, always has his boys ready when it counts.
    8. Georgetown - not the best average team time at Regionals (don't know how hard the course is) but could have 2 in the top 15.
    9. Oregon - they may have been training through regionals, they may have not. We will see. Personally, I think they repeat their performances.
    10. New Mexico - pretty solid top 3. Should be top 10.

    Darkhorses for top 10: Portland, Providence, Arkansas. Portland may very well get top 10, I just didn't feel like ranking them. Providence has great power up front, lets see if their 3-5 guys can gut it out. Arkansas actually impressed me this weekend with Ulrey and Haile going 1-2 seemingly with ease, and their #3 (Boyer?) has apparently run a 29:06 10k on the track. They will be hurting bad with their 4 and 5, and the only reason they are a darkhorse is if their 4 and 5 can run very, very well, they have a shot. Realistically, put them 15-20. It would be cool to see them back in the top 10 tho, its been a couple years.

    Individuals...top 10 are ranked, with the next 10 being 11-20 or surprising to get top 10.

    1. Sam Chelanga - Liberty
    2. Chris Derrick - Stanford
    3. John Kosgei - OK State
    4. Hassan Mead - Minnesota
    5. Ryan Sheridan - Iona
    6. Andrew Bumbalough - Georgetown
    7. Ryan Vail - OK State
    8. Elliot Heath - Stanford
    9. Dorian Ulrey - Arkansas
    10. Felix Kibioywo - Auburn

    German Fernandez
    Solomon Haile
    David McNeil
    Lee Carey
    Jacob Kirwa
    Rory Frazier
    Colby Lowe
    Luke Puskedra
    Justin Marpole-Bird
    Barnabas Kirui

    We'll see how everything plays out. Good luck to everyone participating at the NCAA meet.
  • slkjflaksdf
    10 years ago 11/17/2009 8:16am CST
    re: mideast??
    Forum Index
    miles batty and byu's squad will put it together.
  • 26mi235
    10 years ago 11/17/2009 9:20am CST
    re: mideast??
    Forum Index
    mideast?? wrote:

    3. NAU - yes they had a horrible Regionals, but they are a talented group. Look for them to be top 5 at least.

    [Unless Regionals was an aberration, why will they finish higher at Nationals that at Regionals - They have to face several more teams and, unlike PreNats, McNeil was running well.]


    9. Oregon - they may have been training through regionals, they may have not. We will see. Personally, I think they repeat their performances.

    [I think that they rested up a bit at Regionals]

    Darkhorses for top 10: Portland, Providence, Arkansas. Portland may very well get top 10, I just didn't feel like ranking them.

    [Portland will likely be top-10; top-5 is tougher but not impossible for this young team. Another young team that does not even get mentioned is Wisconsin. Miller has to solve his reflux problems; if he does and the young guys run well, they have 5-6 guys that can be in the top 50 - 200 points gets you well into the top 10.]


    Individuals... the next 10 being 11-20 or surprising to get top 10.


    German Fernandez
    [I am guessing he will do better than 11-20]

    Solomon Haile
    [I would not be surprised if he is not the top freshman, even if he is 20-21 years old and more like a sophomore.]

    We'll see how everything plays out. Good luck to everyone participating at the NCAA meet.
    [you can say that again]
  • oh....
    10 years ago 11/17/2009 9:34am CST
    re: kengir uprising
    Forum Index
    i think Ok state will take it with stanford a close second. But in reality it will be which ever one of these teams has the better day. could there possibly be a tie?
    also i think chelanga will take the title. yes chris derrick beat him at prenats. but if chelanga runs smart he will win, he is the 10k collegiate record holder after all.
    oh and go syracuse!
  • gfds
    10 years ago 11/17/2009 9:50am CST
    Forum Index
    Why no love for William and Mary? They won their region with 49 points over 4 other qualifing teams.

    1.OK State
    2 Stanford
    3 NAU
    4 Oregon
    5 Wisconsin
    6 W&M
    7 Colorado
    8 Alabama
    9 Portland
    10 BYU