RYAN HALL will finish ??? at NYC

I think a top 2 or 3 finish would be awesome, but the fact that the majority of letsrun'ers on the homepage poll pick him to win, is ludicrous.

7th

1st mr. hall is in great shape he will run 2:07:26

Takes 3rd in a finishing kick

We will never see a sub 2:08 from Hall ever again.

k.c. wrote:

I think a top 2 or 3 finish would be awesome, but the fact that the majority of letsrun'ers on the homepage poll pick him to win, is ludicrous.

Hall has the highest individual of votes on the homepage poll, which may be ludicrous, but he doesn't have a majority. I'd say he's about even odds to make the podium but giving him a 10% chance of being on the top step might be generous. I'd love to see it happen.

Kwambai would be my choice for winner, but I'd take the field over any individual, especially with Lel out of the running.

He will finish behind Abdi. You can take that to the bank.

Hall will win, 2:08:33, He will put the hammer down on the hills of central park and pull away for the VICTORY! The boy is fit.

the problem is:

there are about 8 guys who could win the race. Yes Hall is one of them. The way world-class marathoning is these days, your odds are not good if you a cheering for one individual. If you cheer for a country, say Kenya or Ethiopia, you have like a 3/8 chance or something like that of winning.

I don't think hall is capable of running away from a 2:04 or sub 59 half runner...hall would have to come from behind and take advantage of the hills.

How much different is the course NOW from back in 1980-1983 when Salazar ran 2:09, 2:08, 2:09 and Dixon ran 2:09:00?

Those times were very close to the fastest ever, and now the WR has progressed by ~4:15 or so (if you take DeCastella's 2:08:18 at Fukuoka as the WR for the time) so how come we don't see a bunch of 2:06's at New York?

25-35 years ago you saw people run 2:08, 2:09 and even Bill Rodgers ran 2:10 there, but there were just a few runners OR ONE RUNNER each year that broke 2:10 in the world during that time. Now that the annual list starts at 2:04 and dozens are under 2:10 in the world each year ... how come they aren't running that much faster than Salazar/Rodgers/Dixon/Geoff Smith?

Yes, I think it's a safe bet that Hall will finish at NYC.

salazar or rodgers could have probably set the WR on a faster course. but they both raced hilly courses in boston and NY.

newname wrote:

How much different is the course NOW from back in 1980-1983 when Salazar ran 2:09, 2:08, 2:09 and Dixon ran 2:09:00?

Those times were very close to the fastest ever, and now the WR has progressed by ~4:15 or so (if you take DeCastella's 2:08:18 at Fukuoka as the WR for the time) so how come we don't see a bunch of 2:06's at New York?

25-35 years ago you saw people run 2:08, 2:09 and even Bill Rodgers ran 2:10 there, but there were just a few runners OR ONE RUNNER each year that broke 2:10 in the world during that time. Now that the annual list starts at 2:04 and dozens are under 2:10 in the world each year ... how come they aren't running that much faster than Salazar/Rodgers/Dixon/Geoff Smith?

Great point. I think this just might be the year that New York goes down with exactly what you're asking: two or three guys going 2:06.

The weather is the big variable. If it's windy, nobody is going to make a break early.

Hall will finish with a slower time than Boston. Predict between 2:10 and 2:11

I am going with Meb as first American (2:09-2:10), Hall, Abdi, Sell and Jorge. Hoping Jorge gets into that 2:12-2:14 area on his first try.

An American is not going to win but we could put as many as 5 in the top ten.

Hall should be in the top 3. Whether he wins or comes in 2nd or 3rd I don't know. He may not be quite the runner that Kwambai is but assuming that the race won't go out at 2:04 pace he should be able to stick with him later on, or at least keep him and Cheruiyot close.

Meb will be in the picture too but I don't think he will be able to hang if its a fast closing race.

Abdi seems to bring his B game to alot of races. When he is on he's pretty good but even then he is not good enough to win. The rest of the time he seems to drop out.

Time wise NY is a gamble. It's not like Chicago or London where you know its going to be one within a one minute range. NY could be won anywhere between 2:07 and 2:13 depending on the weather and pacing.

Why would anyone think that the times are going to be real fast? This is NOT London, Berlin or Chicago. Hasn't anyone here ever run a course with hill?

There has only been one runner under 2:09 in the last 6 years, and that was last year with the winning time being 2:08:43

1. Kwambai

2. dos Santos

3. Makau

4. Gharib

5. Cheruiyot

6. Keflezighi

7. Hall

1) Makau

2) Kwambai

3) Gharib

4) Meb

5) Hall

6) Cheruiyot

7) dos Santos